1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza (QB, Indiana)

2. New York Jets: David Bailey (EDGE, Texas Tech)

3. Arizona Cardinals: Francis Mauigoa (OL, Miami)

4. Tennessee Titans: Sonny Styles (LB, Ohio State)

5. New York Giants: Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame)

6. Cleveland Browns: Spencer Fano (OL, Utah)

7. Washington Commanders: Carnell Tate (WR, Ohio State)

8. New Orleans Saints: Arvell Reese (EDGE, Ohio State)

9. Kansas City Chiefs: Mansoor Delane (CB, LSU)

10. New York Giants: Jordyn Tyson (WR, Arizona State)

11. Miami Dolphins: Kadyn Proctor (OL, Alabama)

12. Dallas Cowboys: Rueben Bain (DL, Miami)

13. Los Angeles Rams: Monroe Freeling (OL, Georgia)

14. Baltimore Ravens: Olaivavega Ioane (OL, Penn State)

15. TRADE: New York Giants: Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State)

16. TRADE: Arizona Cardinals: Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama)

17. Detroit Lions: Blake Miller (OL, Clemson)

18. Minnesota Vikings: Peter Woods (DL, Clemson)

19. Carolina Panthers: Dillon Thieneman (S, Oregon)

20. Dallas Cowboys: Malachi Lawrence (DL, UCF)

21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, Indiana)

22. Los Angeles Chargers: Chris Johnson (CB, San Diego State)

23. Philadelphia Eagles: Max Iheanachor (OL, Arizona State)

24. Cleveland Browns: Makai Lemon (WR, USC)

25. Chicago Bears: Kayden McDonald (DL, Ohio State)

26. TRADE: Detroit Lions: Keldric Faulk (DL, Auburn)

27. San Francisco 49ers: KC Concepcion (WR, Texas A&M)

28. TRADE: Dallas Cowboys: Jermod McCoy (CB, Tennessee)

29. Kansas City Chiefs: Kenyon Sadiq (TE, Oregon)

30. Miami Dolphins: Caleb Lomu (OL, Utah)

31. New England Patriots: Zion Young (DL, Missouri)

32. Seattle Seahawks: Colton Hood (CB, Tennessee)

Top 100 Prospects

Round 1 Grade

1. Caleb Downs, Ohio State, S

2. Sonny Styles, Ohio State, LB

3. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame, RB

4. Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon, TE

5. Arvell Reese, Ohio State, EDGE

6. Monroe Freeling, Georgia, OT

7. Kadyn Proctor, Alabama, OT

8. Carnell Tate, Ohio State, WR

9. Jermod McCoy, Tennessee, CB

10. David Bailey, Texas Tech, EDGE

11. Makai Lemon, USC, WR

12. Rueben Bain Jr., Miami, EDGE

13. Francis Mauigoa, Miami, OT

14. Avieon Terrell, Clemson, CB

15. Mansoor Delane, LSU, CB

16. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana, QB

17. Spencer Fano, Utah, OT

18. Dillon Thieneman, Oregon, S

19. KC Concepcion, Texas A&M, WR

Round 2 Grade

20. Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana, WR

21. Keldric Faulk, Auburn, EDGE

22. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo, S

23. Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State, IOL

24. Akheem Mesidor, Miami, EDGE

25. Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State, WR

26. Caleb Lomu, Utah, OT

27. Max Iheanachor, Arizona State, OT

28. Caleb Banks, Florida, DL

29. TJ Parker, Clemson, EDGE

30. Chris Johnson, San Diego State, CB

31. Zion Young, Missouri, EDGE

32. Cashius Howell, Texas A&M, EDGE

33. Blake Miller, Clemson, OT

34. Brandon Cisse, South Carolina, CB

35. Malachi Lawrence, UCF, EDGE

36. Peter Woods, Clemson, DL

37. Denzel Boston, Washington, WR

38. Anthony Hill Jr., Texas, LB

39. Lee Hunter, Texas Tech, DL

40. Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech, LB

41. Keionte Scott, Miami, CB

42. Derrick Moore, Michigan, EDGE

43. Emmanuel Pregnon, Oregon, IOL

44. R Mason Thomas, Oklahoma, EDGE

45. Bud Clark, TCU, S

46. Jalon Kilgore, South Carolina, CB

47. Dani Dennis-Sutton, Penn State, EDGE

48. Colton Hood, Tennessee, CB

Round 3 Grade

49. Germie Bernard, Alabama, WR

50. Keylan Rutledge, Georgia Tech, IOL

51. Jake Golday, Cincinnati, LB

52. Treydan Stukes, Arizona, CB

53. De’Zhaun Stribling, Ole Miss, WR

54. Kyle Louis, Pittsburgh, LB

55. Romello Height, Texas Tech, EDGE

56. Keyron Crawford, Auburn, EDGE

57. AJ Haulcy, LSU, S

58. Gabe Jacas, Illinois, EDGE

59. Christen Miller, Georgia, DL

60. Chris Bell, Louisville, WR

61. CJ Allen, Georgia, LB

62. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU, QB

63. Jadarian Price, Notre Dame, RB

64. Caleb Tiernan, Northwestern, OT

65. Kamari Ramsey, USC, S

66. Eli Stowers, Vanderbilt, TE

67. Ted Hurst, Georgia State, WR

68. Ty Simpson, Alabama, QB

69. Davison Igbinosun, Ohio State, CB

70. Max Klare, Ohio State, TE

71. Mike Washington Jr., Arkansas, RB

72. D’Angelo Ponds, Indiana, CB

73. Daylen Everette, Georgia, CB

74. Antonio Williams, Clemson, WR

75. Malik Muhammad, Texas, CB

76. Kayden McDonald, Ohio State, DL

77. Chris Brazzell II, Tennessee, WR

78. Joshua Josephs, Tennessee, EDGE

79. Chase Bisontis, Texas A&M, IOL

80. Gracen Halton, Oklahoma, DL

81. Bryce Lance, North Dakota State, WR

82. Elijah Sarratt, Indiana, WR

83. Gennings Dunker, Iowa, OT

84. Jaishawn Barham, Michigan, EDGE

85. Jake Slaughter, Florida, C

86. Chandler Rivers, Duke, CB

87. Keith Abney II, Arizona State, CB

88. Oscar Delp, Georgia, TE

89. Josiah Trotter, Missouri, LB

90. Zachariah Branch, Georgia, WR

Round 4 Grade

91. Domonique Orange, Iowa State, DL

92. Deion Burks, Oklahoma, WR

93. Logan Jones, Iowa, C

94. Jalen Farmer, Kentucky, IOL

95. Zakee Wheatley, Penn State, S

96. Malachi Fields, Notre Dame, WR

97. Travis Burke, Memphis, OT

98. Markel Bell, Miami, OT

99. Brenen Thompson, Mississippi State, WR

100. Connor Lew, Auburn, C

101. (Honourable Mention) Sam Hecht, C, Kansas State

Week 10: 5-4 (+0.71u)

2025 Season Record: 42-40 (51.2%), +1.02 units

Against the Spread

• 49ers -5 at Browns

• Colts -3 vs Texans

• Vikings +12.5 at Seahawks

Over/Under

• Rams/Panthers Under 46

• Saints/Dolphins Over 41.5

• Texans/Colts Over 44

• Bills/Steelers Over 45.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Week 10: 5-2 (+2.79u)

2025 Season Record: 37-36 (50.7%), +0.31 units

Against the Spread

• Bengals +7.5 vs Patriots

• Titans +12.5 vs Seahawks

• Vikings +6.5 at Packers

• Chiefs -3.5 vs Colts

• Jaguars -2.5 at Cardinals

• Cowboys +3 vs Eagles

Over/Under

• Giants/Lions Under 49.5

• Buccaneers/Rams Over 49.5

• Panthers/49ers Under 49.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Week 9: 5-4 (+0.74u)

2025 Season Record: 32-34 (48.5%), -2.48 units

Against the Spread

• Saints +5.5 at Panthers

• Dolphins +9.5 vs Bills

• Packers -1 vs Eagles

Over/Under

• Giants/Bears Under 47.0

• Patriots/Buccaneers Under 48.5

• Lions/Commanders Under 49.5

• Cardinals/Seahawks Under 45.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Week 8: 1-6 (-5.02u)

2025 Season Record: 27-30 (47.4%), -3.22 units

Against the Spread

• Bengals +2.5 vs Bears

• 49ers -2.5 @ Giants

• Steelers +3.5 vs Colts

• Jaguars -2.5 @ Raiders

• Cowboys -3 vs Cardinals

Over/Under

• 49ers/Giants Under 48.5

• Jaguars/Raiders Over 43.5

• Saints/Rams Over 43.5

• Cardinals/Cowboys Under 53.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Week 6: 2-5 (-3.22u)

2025 Season Record: 26-24 (52.0%), +0.56 units

Against the Spread

• Dolphins +7 @ Falcons

• Cowboys +3.5 @ Cowboys

• Titans +14.5 @ Colts

• Commanders +11.5 @ Chiefs

Over/Under

• Bills/Panthers Under 46.5

• Cowboys/Broncos Under 50.5

• Titans/Colts Under 47.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Last Week: 6-3 (+2.78u)

2025 Season Record: 24-19 (55.8%), +3.77 units

Against the Spread

• Cowboys -3

• Jaguars +1.5

• 49ers +3.5

Over/Under

• Rams/Ravens Over 44.5

• Cardinals/Colts Under 46.5

• Patriots/Saints Under 45.5

• Bills/Falcons Under 49.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Last Week: 5-2 (+2.75u)

2025 Season Record: 18-16 (52.9%), +0.99 units

Against the Spread

• Ravens +1.5

• Dolphins -1.5

• Cowboys -1.5

• Buccaneers +3.5

Over/Under

• Vikings/Browns Over 35.5

• Texans/Ravens Over 40.5

• Cowboys/Jets Under 47.5

• Buccaneers/Seahawks Over 44

• Patriots/Bills Under 49.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Last Week: 4-5 (-1.22u)

2025 Season Record: 13-14 (48.1%), -1.76 units

Against the Spread

• Rams -3.5

• Chiefs +2.5

Over/Under

• Vikings/Steelers Over 40.5

• Saints/Bills Under 48.5

• Texans/Titans Over 38.5

• Commanders/Falcons Over 43.5

• Colts/Rams Under 49.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Last Week: 4-5 (-1.22u)

2025 Season Record: 9-9 (50.0%), -0.54 units

Against the Spread

• Saints +7.5 @ Seahawks

• Cowboys -1.5 @ Bears

• 49ers -2.5 vs Cardinals

Over/Under

• Falcons/Panthers Over 43.5

• Texans/Jaguars Over 43.5

• Bengals/Vikings Over 42.5

• Rams/Eagles Over 44.5

• Raiders/Commanders Over 43.5

• Cowboys/Bears Under 50.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Week 2 Picks

Last Week: 5-4 (+0.68u)

Against the Spread

• Vikings -3.5 vs. Falcons

• Buccaneers +2.5 @ Texans

• Chargers -3 @ Raiders

Over/Under

• Browns/Ravens Under 45.5

• 49ers/Saints Over 40.5

• Bills/Jets Under 47.5

• Cardinals/Panthers Under 44.5

• Broncos/Colts Under 43.5

• Falcons/Vikings Over 44.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

This post has a few parts:

• Changes to Touchdown Squad picks

• Recap of 2024 picks

• Week 1 Picks

• Season Long Win Total Picks

Changes to Touchdown Squad picks

This year, with me starting a new job, Touchdown Squad’s picks will be free. The paid tier will be deactivated for now and everyone will be transitioned to the free tier. I’ll revisit this for next year, but I hope everyone enjoys the picks!

Recap of 2024 picks

As always, betting performance is tracked and verified by BettingPros.

Last year, we finished with an 85-66-3 record (56.3%) with a profit of 10.88 units (1 unit/bet):

• Spread: 40-33-2 (55.4%), +3.47 units

• O/U: 45-33-1 (58.4%), +7.52 units

This brings Touchdown Squad’s lifetime record (since 2020) to 414-309-10 (57.3%), +84.08 units:

• Spread: 228-170-5 (57.3%), +34.44 units

• O/U: 186-139-5 (57.2%), +49.64 units

This placed me 22nd out of 306 experts in 2024 - overall a very solid year with profit in both bet types. With that being said though, this year I’ll be aiming again for that 1st place I got in 2022!

Week 1 Picks

Interestingly, early in the year tends to be when I’ve done the best. Looking at my splits on BettingPros, Weeks 1-5 account for 56% of my positive ROI, with the first two weeks in particular being my strongest.

Week 1-2 Splits from 2020-2024:

• Spread: 47-30 (61.0%)

• O/U: 41-27-1 (60.3%)

The uncertainty of new players, coaches, etc is always a potential source of mispricings early in the year, and this year I see lots of opportunities in Week 1:

2025 Record: 0-0-0 (-%), 0.00 units

Against the Spread

• Dolphins +1.5 @ Colts

• Saints +6.5 vs. Cardinals

• 49ers -1.5 @ Seahawks

• Rams -3 vs. Texans

• Bills +1.5 vs. Ravens

• Vikings -1.5 vs. Bears

Over/Under

• Raiders/Patriots Over 43.5

• Giants/Commanders Under 45.5

• Texans/Rams Over 43.5

Season Long Win Total Picks

One of my favourite bet types (if you’re willing to let your money sit there all season) is season-long win totals. Last year we went 6-1, and here are my picks for this year:

• Colts Under 7.5 Wins

• Cowboys Over 7.5 Wins

• Commanders Over 9.5 Wins

• Seahawks Under 8.5 Wins

• Dolphins Over 7.5 Wins

• Cardinals Under 8.5 Wins

• Saints Over 4.5 Wins

• Vikings Over 8.5 Wins

Good luck everyone this year!

In 2021, Jack Miller from RotoViz released an article with this graph in it:

What this graph explains is that WRs outproduce RBs at every point in the draft. But see that little air bubble in the middle? The WR-RB points differential is much greater in Rounds 3-6, where WRs provide superior value above what you can find later, compared to a smaller dropoff at RB.

Miller argued that drafters should avoid RBs through these middle rounds and instead prioritise the much less fragile WRs to “win the flex”.

He titled his theory “The RB Dead Zone”.

Of course, his theory would catch on. Egged on by disappointments that year like Kerryon Johnson or Mike Davis at top-12 RB price tags, Miller’s work fanned the flames of older strategies like Zero or Hero RB and thrust them into the spotlight. This was now the meta of fantasy football.

This framework of drafting WRs through the flex has dictated every strategy I’ve used since, but in each year that passes, the market becomes more and more aware.

In 2020, 13 of the top 14 picks in full PPR were RBs but last year, only 4 were. The proliferation of these teams has become extreme — there’s no more room left for the pendulum to swing. Playoff rates of teams with 4 and 5 WRs in their first 5 picks dropped back below 50% last year for the first time since 2016.

All this to say, I’m looking to get ahead of the curve while I still can. I see this year as the last one to profit off zigging when others zag. The mid-round RB is back.

Affordability

Here’s a list of where the RB13 (high-end RB2) has been ranked on ESPN’s default PPR rankings each of the last 6 years:

• 2020: 2.02

• 2021: 2.10

• 2022: 2.11

• 2023: 3.08

• 2024: 3.07

• 2025: 4.01

That’s a 2-round drop in the last 5 years. But even just looking at the last 3 years, it’s clear if the dead-zone wasn’t dead yet, it should be now.

There’s also this stat from Ryan Heath (who we’ll discuss more later):

Both of these are telling us that RB2s are as cheap as they’ve ever been - even home leagues are now pricing them efficiently.

This year, looking at both Mike Clay and Rich Hribar’s projections, RBs and WRs basically project for the same amount of points as each other from Rounds 1-5. Round 6 is where the WRs begin to separate, but it’s worth noting this year, that could be because of rookies like Harvey and Henderson who are likely being drafted above where their “projection” would indicate.

Lesson here: that air bubble from above has been popped.

“Running backs get hurt more”

So we’ve established running backs are basically as cheap as ever - but that still leaves the underlying reason behind RB Zero - their fragility. Historically, RB Zero has succeeded because RBs get injured more than WRs, so as other teams’ early investments in RB fall, your team only rises in relative value (especially if you hit on a handcuff).

But is this still true? Not really.

Top 24 ADP WRs vs RBs missing 4+ games

Year       WRs         RBs

2021       6           12
2022       7           6
2023       6           8
2024       8           4

And for 2024 that doesn’t include Rice, Godwin or Higgins who all missed 4+ games.

Keen cynics among you may ask, haven’t the WRs gone up because more of them are being drafted in the top 24? Well, that’s kinda the point — maybe they shouldn’t be.

In a league where 400+ touch bellcow RBs don’t happen much anymore, and penalties are getting softer each year, I’m starting to believe our original assumption (RBs get injured more) doesn’t and won’t hold in the future. Or at least WRs are about as likely to miss games as an RB drafted around them, given each position’s new respective market pricing.

Still a need for caution

RBs may not be getting injured more than WRs anymore, but they are still less predictable…

Consider Breece Hall last season. He was, as Pat Kerrane has termed, a “silent killer”. He had a more detrimental impact on teams in terms of advancement and championship rates than players who were out for most of the season because at least for the latter, you knew you could bench them.

I’d highly recommend reading Ryan Heath’s Anatomy of a League Winner article - probably the best piece of writing from this fantasy offseason and something I’ll be referencing throughout this. Here’s a table from that article:

What this says essentially is RBs in the first 40 picks bust 26.7% more than WRs.

So while RBs aren’t getting injured as much as they used to, considering their adjusted price, the numbers say RBs are structurally less predictable (ie. introduce a higher downside risk) than WRs, regardless of price.

And this makes sense - RB is a much more opportunity-dependent position compared to WR, where even in bad offenses, talented WRs will still get open, and command targets.

RB Zero relying on waivers

The other argument for RB Zero was that each year, top 24 or even top 12 RB value could be found on waivers. Heath points out that the market has wised up to this recently, and that RB or WRs who end up starting in fantasy playoff teams, have nearly gone extinct.

The days of 2017 Alvin Kamara or 2018 Devonta Freeman off waivers are gone. And this is particularly relevant for teams in more sharp, competitive leagues, where your edge of being more aware than leaguemates on waivers gets diminished (if someone actually does break out, you still have to fight 11 others for them).

For sharp leagues, this is also true for handcuffs and committee members — they are all getting drafted now because people have learned this contingent upside needs to be prioritised.

RB Zero truthers may argue replacement-level RB production is still able to be found off waivers. For example, the combination of Kareem Hunt, Jordan Mason and Ameer Abdullah combined to be the RB17 last year. But in the fantasy playoffs, they were outside the top 36 RBs.

This idea of RB “patchwork” off waivers is good for a quick fix but at a conceptual level, it totally contradicts the idea of RB Zero: a team that only gets stronger as the year goes on.

What to do in 2025

RBs

With that chart earlier implying RBs and WRs are equally flex-viable until Round 7, somewhere between 1 and 3 RBs in the first 6 rounds is probably optimal. After that, take as many RBs as needed for depth: if you invested multiple early picks then ease off; if you took them in Rounds 5 and 6, hammer them a bit more later on.

WRs

Lots of talk about running backs, let’s talk about wide receivers. We are still better at drafting (the right) WRs early, and we can leverage this by leaning into WR hard early. Below is another table from Ryan Heath displaying the recent trend of round 1 WRs being truly difference-making.

Your biggest edge at WR is now in Round 1 works nicely, knowing RBs are priced better in Rounds 2-6 than in previous years.

I see this as meaning we want to have 2-4 WRs through Round 6, and at least 4 through Round 8. After Round 6, if you are still filling out your flex spots, that’s when I would go back into leaning WR.

Once you’ve filled your flex positions, this WR lean shouldn’t hold anymore.

QBs and TEs

Just a quick comment on these for this year. Note - this is not a player takes article. this is a macro strategy view so it can still make sense to take a player if you love them/are getting a value, even if not optimal strategically.

At TE: When you take out Kelce, the data says not only is TE bad in the mid-rounds, but actually it’s always optimal to punt the position unless you get a really great value. For 2025, this is hard because Bowers, McBride and Kittle are compelling options so it really depends on how you feel about them. Just keep in mind the numbers are saying to pass though.

At QB: Either draft one of the elite guys early, or wait it out. In terms of applying it to this year, once you get past Mahomes, I would prefer to wait.

What the future holds

While RB Zero/Hero has given you an inherent edge in previous years, it’s clear that has been erased.

When we look back at the canon of fantasy football, I believe we will see the RB Zero days of the early 2020s as the extremity that it’s been: a fringe tactic which successfully exploited the community’s naivety. But the leading edge has now become the mainstream.

I’ll still be mixing in RB Zero teams here and there when opportunities present themselves, but it’s a lot harder to do. Without the need to starve yourself through Rounds 3-6, there are just way fewer spots where it makes sense to deploy.

In many leagues, I believe a balanced approach will pay dividends this year. But for those in sharper leagues like myself, I think the answer lies in predicting what the next RB-Zero is. Finding the future dominant strategy will be harder this time, given that we are in an era with much smarter market pricing. Perhaps there lies what should be exploited though…

I see pricing efficiency as near its peak. The last 15-20 years of fantasy have been based upon “value-based drafting”. The logic behind not taking a QB first-round, for example, is that even though they score the most points, there’s a smaller dropoff compared to the skill positions.

My view is that we are nearing value-based drafting’s final form. We are at an inflection point for fantasy football, and now is the time to be bold and take risks. In 5 years, we’ll be looking back thinking how wasn’t it obvious where drafting would go from here? And the answer will be because people didn’t think big enough.

As for my theory… stay tuned for the next article.

Headlines

• Labor retains majority government with 76 seats (-1) ; Coalition secures 54 seats (-4); crossbench expands to 20 seats (+4).1

• Senate composition of 27 Coalition (-3), 26 ALP (+1), 12 Greens (-), 3 One Nation (+2), 5 Independents (-).

• 52-48 two-party preferred national vote for Labor. Primary vote breakdown: Coalition 34%, Labor 31%, Greens 12%, One Nation 7%, Others 16%.

The polls would indicate Labor will be in government, achieving somewhere between 74-80 seats (this is a narrow range - a full range of outcomes is more like 71-85 seats; the main point being Labor will be in minority government even in their worst case scenario). Pundits and betting odds price Labor to get 78 seats.

I have Labor slightly underperforming the most recent polls, mostly due to favouring the better quality data from ~5 days ago which was more around a 50/50 as to whether they’ll achieve a majority. I also think there’s been effective campaigning on the issue of crime from the Coalition in marginal seats this week (in what has otherwise been a very poor campaign).

The main prognosticating differentiator in this election will be in forecasting preference flows as primary vote for the two major parties continues to decline. My forecast assumes a fairly steep drop to around 64.5% of the primary vote going to the major parties.

The Greens’ nationwide primary declines by around 1% as they focus policies on their target seats and suffer a bleed to the Teals, while One Nation increases their primary result by roughly 1.5%.

With One Nation polling this well, their preference flows will be crucial for the Coalition - if it matches the QLD state election of nearly 90% to the Coalition, then 60+ seats remain possible for them. However, such preference discipline on a national scale seems unlikely (the 2022 Federal Election was 70%). My view is that One Nation and other minor right-wing party voters are more malleable voters, and that immigration as an issue alone cannot sustain the preference flows needed for the Coalition to carry some of their marginal seats, especially in rural/semi-rural areas (think seats like Cowper and Calare). I think this bodes well for Labor’s chances in toss-up seats such as Macnamara, Sturt, Menzies, and Brisbane, as well as in the upper house.

Toss-up seats

These are the 37 seats I see as in play for today, and which will decide the election (this assumes a base for Labor of 66 seats, 40 for the Coalition, Adam Bandt for the Greens, and then 6 for the crossbench.

Projected changing seats

ALP gain:

• Sturt (from Coalition)

• Menzies (from Coalition)

• Brisbane (from Greens)

Coalition gain:

• Aston (from ALP)

• Lyons (from ALP)

• Gilmore (from ALP)

Greens gain:

• Richmond (from ALP)

• Wills (from ALP)

Independents gain:

• Calare (from Coalition)

• Monash (from Coalition)

• Bradfield (from Coalition)

• Cowper (from Coalition)

Projected retained seats (seats they need to defend)

ALP:

Lingiari, Chisholm, Bullwinkel, Paterson, Macnamara, McEwen, Bennelong

Coalition:

Deakin, Leichhardt, Forrest, Bass, Banks, Longman, McPherson, Canning, Moore, Casey, Wannon

Greens:

Ryan, Griffith

Independents:

Goldstein, Mackellar, Fowler, Curtin

Safe seat projections

Here are my full seat projections below for anyone curious enough to know how I got to my numbers. Each category is listed from most to least likely:

Safe ALP retain (56)

Brand, Grayndler, Fenner, Kingston, Chifley, Burt, Hasluck, Barton, Scullin, Makin, Hotham, Swan, Cowan, Kingsford Smith, Gellibrand, Rankin, Maribyrnong, Sydney, Oxley, Pearce, Blaxland, Macarthur, Ballarat, Canberra, Lalor, Spence, Corio, Gorton, Lilley, Perth, Fraser, Cunningham, Newcastle, Isaacs, Eden-Monaro, Calwell, Bendigo, Jagajaga, Greenway, Watson, Hawke, Whitlam, McMahon, Dobell, Franklin, Holt, Moreton, Shortland, Reid, Solomon, Adelaide, Parramatta, Corangamite, Fremantle, Macquarie, Hindmarsh

Likely ALP retain (10)

Bruce, Dunkley, Tangney, Hunter, Bean, Blair, Robertson, Boothby, Cooper, Werriwa

Safe Coalition retain (30)

Cook, Mitchell, Maranoa, Herbert, La Trobe, Dawson, Fadden, Barker, Farrer, Moncrieff, Hume, Berowra, Hinkler, Wide Bay, Grey, Capricornia, Bowman, Wright, Fairfax, Lindsay, Fisher, Groom, Gippsland, Mallee, Nicholls, Parkes, New England, Riverina, Page, Durack

Likely Coalition retain (10)

Petrie, Hughes, Flynn, Bonner, Forde, Flinders, O'Connor, Lyne, Dickson, Braddon

Likely Crossbench retain (7)

Warringah (IND), Clark (IND), Melbourne (GRN), Kennedy (KAP), Indi (IND), Mayo (CA), Wentworth (IND).

Pick #1: Titans select Cam Ward (QB - Miami)

Ward may not be the #1 overall QBs of recent years, but the opportunity to select a QB with Ward’s upside is certainly a risk worth taking for the Titans. They will hope Ward can be their Herbert, Lamar, Allen, or Mahomes, and set them up to contend at the top of the AFC for years to come.

Grade: A

TRADE! THE JAGS ARE ON THE CLOCK!

Pick #2: Jaguars select Travis Hunter (CB/WR - Colorado)

Hunter is truly a blue-chip prospect at two positions and if he reaches his potential, dare I say he has Ohtani-level upside for the value of a franchise. He’s my top player in the draft by a fairly wide margin.

Why the Browns would trade this pick is beyond me - I understand they’re rebuilding and ammo next year will help but Hunter is a transcendent player who I don’t think any team should pass up. The Jags even did it at pretty fair value - what a start for the 34-year-old GM!

Grade: A+

Pick #3: Giants select Abdul Carter (EDGE - Penn State)

Even though the Giants need to win now, it’s good to see them take the best player available and many people’s top player in the class.

I’m not quite as hot on Carter as most, but he certainly has the most upside of any pass rusher in this class. Hard to criticise this pick too much.

Grade: B+

Pick #4: Patriots select Will Campbell (OT - LSU)

Will Campbell is just amazing at football. I don’t really care if he’ll have to kick into guard at some point (for the record, I don’t think he will) because either way you’re getting a pro-bowl caliber player in my eyes.

He’s not my 4th player in the class but with the Pats need to protect Maye, I think this was a good pick.

Grade: B

Pick #5: Browns select Mason Graham (DT -Michigan)

I love Mason Graham (#2 on my big board) and this was definitely the right pick… I just can’t believe the fact they’re even picking here. Graham + a 2nd + a future 1st for Hunter does seem reasonable… even still I’d want Hunter.

I do believe in Graham though and I’m glad to see he goes top 5 after all.

Grade: B+

Pick #6: Raiders select Ashton Jeanty (RB - Boise State)

Jeanty is a fantastic RB but I don’t think he’s worth the #6 pick or even close to it. With the RB talent later in this draft, I would’ve preferred to see them go trenches. Even still, Jeanty could be an elite weapon for a decade.

Grade: C

Pick #7: Jets select Armand Membou (OT - Missouri)

I’m very high on Membou as a prospect and think this was a great pick as the new Jets regime gets started

Grade: A

Pick #8: Panthers select Tetairoa McMillan (WR - Arizona)

I’m not a fan of McMillan at all and for a team that allowed over 400 yards per game last year, this pick really should’ve been defense.

Grade: D

Pick #9: Saints select Kelvin Banks (OT - Texas)

Banks is a very solid tackle who in this class was highly sought-after. Investing in the trenches is a great move for a team who doesn’t want to commit to Trevor Penning and needs to rebuild.

Grade: B+

Pick #10: Bears select Colston Loveland (TE - Michigan)

A great value, and I’m not surprised Ben Johnson has Loveland over Warren. A versatile chess piece who I’m very excited for his career.

Grade: A-

Pick #11: Niners select Mykell Williams (EDGE - Georgia)

My top EDGE rusher still on the board. As a Niner fan, I’m relieved we didn’t do anything silly. Hopefully we’ll be able to develop him as he’s so raw but the upside is unbelievable.

Grade: B+

Pick #12: Cowboys select Tyler Booker (OG - Alabama)

I LOVE Booker and I’m so glad he went this early. They passed on some really great players at premium positions but I can’t complain about this one.

Grade: A-

Pick #13: Dolphins select Kenneth Grant (DT - Michigan)

Grant is a solid value here in my opinion at a premium position of need. Very solid pick.

Grade: B+

Pick #14: Colts select Tyler Warren (TE - Penn State)

Everything came together for the Colts and they get their guy. Even if I don’t have Warren as a top 7 guy like most, this is still a home run pick.

Grade: A

Pick #15: Falcons select Jalon Walker (EDGE - Georgia)

Walker falls straight into the lap of the team most desperate for a pass rusher. Really great pick if they can maximise his skillset.

Grade: A-

Pick #16: Cardinals select Walter Nolen (DT - Ole Miss)

I’m super high on Nolen and think he’ll be a star. One of my favourite picks so far.

Grade: A

1. Tennessee selects Cam Ward, QB, Miami

The Titans hope Ward will bring them into the club of AFC elites with young, physically gifted QBs.

2. Cleveland selects Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado

Cleveland addresses two needs at once with who many consider to be the best prospect in the class.

3. NY Giants selects Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State

Carter is simply too good to pass up no matter the current EDGE roster.

4. New England selects Will Campbell, OL, LSU

Their need for offensive line help unfortunately backs them into a corner - luckily many think Campbell will be a great leader and player for a long time.

5. Jacksonville selects Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Now the draft really begins!

For me, this pick comes down to whether you think they’ll stay and pick (Jeanty?) or trade out (McMillan, Grant). I don’t want to bet on teams moving up this year so Jeanty is who I’m (reluctantly) going with.

6. Las Vegas selects Jalon Walker, OLB, Georgia

Spytek comes from a TB front office which invested heavily, over and over again in front 7 players early in the draft. Logic says Membou but my gut says they have Banks over him. Walker is a culture-setter and has the upside to be an elite EDGE.

7. NY Jets selects Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State

A very hard pick to project but at the end of the day, this is more about the Jets being Warren’s mostly likely landing spot than the other way around.

8. Las Vegas trades for the pick and selects Kelvin Banks, OL, Texas

I’m so convinced Banks is over Membou that I think the Raiders could orchestrate a 2023-Texans and get both him and Walker.

9. New Orleans selects Armand Membou, OL, Missouri

Membou slips through the cracks and NO is the first team I’m confident has him over Banks.

10. Chicago selects Mason Graham, DT, Michigan

Graham’s “fall” ends here - I’d like to think Chicago knows there’s a good chance someone ends up in their lap (Warren, Membou, Graham, etc) and don’t feel the need to trade up for Jeanty.

11. San Francisco selects Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss

The Niners are a hard team to project but history would say they don’t shy away from addressing DL when required. Nolan is most reminiscent of their type but its very hard with this time.

12. Dallas selects Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona

The Cowboys take a playmaker to pair with Lamb - this pick just makes a lot of sense.

13. Miami selects Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan

Miami is being linked to other DL prospects, but I think Grant is going early and I don’t see why not here. This team has needs all over though and I think they’d love Banks if he falls, or could trade back for a Barron, Emmanwori or Starks.

14. Indianapolis selects Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan

The Colts’ prayers are answered as a premier TE falls to a team in desperate need of one.

15. Atlanta selects Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M

Stewart could go much earlier but Atlanta feels likely to take the best EDGE available.

16. Arizona selects Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas

Trenches are also firmly in play but Barron is a great prospect who apparently is going earlier than we think.

17. Cincinnati selects Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina

Emmanwori feels like a Bengal or a Packer - nothing to base that off, just my feel of the type of guys they like. Here, I have the Bengals taking him.

18. Seattle selects Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State

Honestly, I don’t think this will happen because Schneider doesn’t like taking guard early but predicting Seattle is always a mess, and this is one of Zabel’s more logical spots.

19. Tampa Bay selects Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama

If he makes it here, it would seem silly for TB to pass on a LB as good as Campbell.

20. Denver selects Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina

I think Hampton is going round 1 and Denver makes sense as a landing spot given their RB room currently.

21. Pittsburgh selects Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon

This guy has Steeler written all over him, the only concern is this new injury scare with Harmon. Also risking they don’t just take Shadeur here.

22. LA Chargers selects Will Johnson, CB, Michigan

There is a very real chance Johnson slips out of the first but here, I have his former coach overlooking his lack of speed and injury concerns.

23. Green Bay selects Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky

Hairston could go many places in the 20s but he exactly matches what the Packers look for in corners.

24-32 is a combination of landing spots that make sense and teams who I think could trade back into the first to take their guys:

24. New Orleans trades for the pick and selects Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia

25. Houston selects Tyler Booker, OL, Alabama

26. Dallas trades for the pick and selects Matthew Golden, WR, Texas

27. Baltimore selects Malaki Starks, S, Georgia

28. Tampa Bay trades for the pick and selects Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE, Boston College

29. Washington selects Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State

30. Cincinnati trades for the pick and selects Mike Green, EDGE, Marshall

31. Arizona trades for the pick and selects Josh Simmons, OL, Ohio State

32. Atlanta trades for the pick and selects James Pearce Jr., EDGE, Tennessee

Just missed the cut: Josh Conerly, Shadeur Sanders, Jaxson Dart, Donovan Jackson, JT Tuimoloau, Shavon Revel, Trey Amos.

1. Cameron Ward – Miami

2. Travis Hunter – Colorado

3. Abdul Carter – Penn State

4. Will Campbell – LSU

5. Mason Graham – Michigan

6. Ashton Jeanty – Boise State

7. Armand Membou – Missouri

8. Jalon Walker – Georgia

9. Tyler Warren – Penn State

10. Shadeur Sanders – Colorado

11. Tetairoa McMillan – Arizona

12. Will Johnson – Michigan

13. Kelvin Banks – Texas

14. Mykel Williams – Georgia

15. Colston Loveland – Michigan

16. Matthew Golden – Texas

17. Jihaad Campbell – Alabama

18. Jahdae Barron – Texas

19. Omarion Hampton – North Carolina

20. Mike Green – Marshall

21. Shemar Stewart – Texas A&M

22. Kenneth Grant – Michigan

23. Derrick Harmon – Oregon

24. Tyler Booker – Alabama

25. Emeka Egbuka – Ohio State

26. Donovan Ezeiruaku – Boston College

27. Maxwell Hairston – Kentucky

28. Luther Burden – Missouri

29. Josh Conerly – Oregon

30. Trey Amos – Ole Miss

31. Donovan Jackson – Ohio State

32. Malaki Starks – Georgia

33. Walter Nolen – Ole Miss

34. Nick Emmanwori – South Carolina

35. Josh Simmons – Ohio State

36. Grey Zabel – North Dakota State

37. James Pearce Jr. – Tennessee

38. Jaxson Dart – Ole Miss

39. TreVeyon Henderson – Ohio State

40. Jalen Milroe – Alabama

41. Xavier Watts – Notre Dame

42. JT Tuimoloau – Ohio State

43. Quinshon Judkins – Ohio State

44. Benjamin Morrison – Notre Dame

45. Aireontae Ersery – Minnesota

46. Landon Jackson – Arkansas

47. Darius Alexander – Toledo

48. Tyleik Williams – Ohio State

49. Nic Scourton – Texas A&M

50. Shavon Revel – East Carolina

51. Elijah Arroyo – Miami

52. TJ Sanders – South Carolina

53. Carson Schwesinger – UCLA

54. Jonah Savaiinaea – Arizona

55. Jaylin Noel – Iowa State

56. Kaleb Johnson – Iowa

57. Alfred Collins – Texas

58. Tre Harris – Ole Miss

59. Marcus Mbow – Purdue

60. Tate Ratledge – Georgia

61. Jack Bech – TCU

62. Shemar Turner – Texas A&M

63. Tyler Shough – Louisville

64. Savion Williams – TCU

65. Emery Jones – LSU

66. Oluwafemi Oladejo – UCLA

67. Jayden Higgins – Iowa State

68. Tai Felton – Maryland

69. Mason Taylor – LSU

70. Terrance Ferguson – Oregon

71. Harold Fannin Jr. – Bowling Green

72. Jared Wilson – Georgia

73. Joshua Farmer – Florida State

74. Jordan Burch – Oregon

75. Bradyn Swinson – LSU

76. Jalen Royals – Utah State

77. Azareye'h Thomas – Florida State

78. Elik Ayomanor – Stanford

79. Darien Porter – Iowa State

80. Ozzy Trapilo – Boston College

81. Kevin Winston – Penn State

82. Jacob Parrish – Kansas State

83. Charles Grant – William & Mary

84. Josaiah Stewart – Michigan

85. Dylan Sampson – Tennessee

86. Kyle Williams – Washington State

87. Omarr Norman-Lott – Tennessee

88. Yahya Black – Iowa

89. Billy Bowman – Oklahoma

90. Demetrius Knight Jr – South Carolina

91. Danny Stutsman – Oklahoma

92. Anthony Belton – NC State

93. Nohl Williams – California

94. Andrew Mukuba – Texas

95. RJ Harvey – UCF

96. Cameron Williams – Texas

97. Jordan Phillips – Maryland

98. Ashton Gilloite – Louisville

99. Wyatt Milum – West Virginia

100. Smael Mondon Jr – Georgia

Quarterbacks

1. Cam Ward, Miami

Risky profile with late breakout but his potential to be a great starter makes him the top QB in this class.

2. Quinn Ewers, Texas

Good mix of athleticism and some workable passing traits. Needs to develop consistency but many weaknesses are coachable.

3. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado

Strong accuracy and decision making. Physically limited and will need to be less risk-averse in the NFL.

4. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss

Good traits to work with. Potential starter to develop but overall a large unknown.

5. Jalen Milroe, Alabama

Very far off from NFL-ready but elite athleticism gives him huge potential at least in a class where it’s hard to see most of these guys after him working out either.

HMs: 6. Tyler Shough, Louisville; 7. Kyle McCord, Syracuse

Running Backs

1. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

Running style is reminiscent of some of the truly elite recent pure rushers - Chubb, early career-Zeke, etc. Runs with a wildly low center of gravity, combined with excellent patience and vision. Lacks those names’ size and receiving skills but as a wholistic prospect profile, truly is as clean of a projection as it gets.

2. Omarion Hampton, North Carolina

Great combination of powerful running style with real long speed. Burst (for his size) and ability to break contact standout as excellent) Elusiveness is okay (but again, impressive for his size); is worth noting the disproportionate rate he was able to face LBs 1-on-1 though. With those yellow flags said, there isn’t really any clear weaknesses.

3. Cam Skattebo, Arizona State

Oxymoronically runs with both incredible grace and violence. Just a menace. Excellent explosiveness and contact balance as a rusher; great route running and ball skills as a receiver. Has the build to develop in pass protection but does lack true long speed.

4. TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State

Reliable pass catcher and pass protector with great speed - rare combination which should mean he has plenty of demand (and could go very early). Leaves some stuff to be desired as a pure rusher though (vision, physicality).

5. RJ Harvey, UCF

Efficient runner with excellent vision and ability to manipulate defenders. Hard to bring down. Ashton Jeanty-light and with where Jeanty will be drafted, I’d prefer Harvey at his value significantly more.

6. Quinshon Judkins, Ohio State

Great runner (specifically excellent acceleration) but will be scheme-dependant in NFL. Likely a committee back where he plays the power rusher role.

7. Kaleb Johnson, Iowa

Lacks athleticism but checks pretty much every other box (although receiving game is inconsistent). If he goes to an outside zone scheme, I think he will be very successful.

8. Damien Martinez, Miami

Was excellent in two different schemes. Elegant runner - will almost stand still with the ball to allow holes to present themselves (think Le’Veon Bell). Feel confident he has a lot of outs to succeed in the NFL. Weak pass protection for his size though.

9. DJ Giddens, Kansas State

Awesome elusiveness and speed. Hoping he adds more weight as contact balance is poor currently.

10. Dylan Sampson, Tennessee

Great contact balance - doesn’t go down easy. I view him as much more boom-or-bust than others though as that Tennessee scheme leaves a lot unknown (2 under center rush attempts last season, frequently faced light boxes). On teams where he will face light boxes though, should succeed as a a modern compact running back.

HMs - Out of top 100:

11. Bhayshul Tuten, Virginia Tech

Strange profile - never had an under center carry at Virginia Tech. Excellent speed, creates big plays at a very high rate, but also gets stuffed extremely often (22.6% stuff rate, leads class). Fumbles were also an issue. Shades of Matt Breida.

12. Trevor Etienne, Georgia

Small runner with excellent speed. Would work well in a 2-back committee with a power runner beside him

13. Jarquez Hunter, Auburn

Will likely be drafted into an RB3 role but good potential for production. Strong power runner with excellent elusiveness but doesn’t offer much else yet.

14. Corey Kiner, Cincinnati

One-dimensional player but strong runner with good vision and contact balance. Lacks long speed but could find a short-yardage/goal line situation specialist role somewhere. <8 inch hands may be a concern.

15. Devin Neal, Kansas

Consistent, smooth runner with good vision. Limited athleticism and upside.

16. Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State

Early breakout but has been much worse since. Still a talented back but I do fear this is a descending player.

17. Kalel Mullings, Michigan

Stole the show at Michigan and could prove find a role at the next level

Wide Receivers

1. Travis Hunter, Colorado

The fact he may not even play WR shouldn’t let you forget he is still an absolutely elite WR prospect.

2. Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

A very safe prospect who produced early competing with legit NFL talent for targets. Savvy route running and plays much bigger than his size. No clear standout traits but no weaknesses either. Don’t think he’ll ever be a true WR1 but hard to see a reason he won’t be productive immediately and sustain a long NFL career.

3. Matthew Golden, Texas

Really strong route running ability which eases concerns he’s only going in 1st because of his 40-time (which he probably overperformed in). Has improved drastically (the tape at Houston is bad, but is great to see his development). Can see really high upside.

4. Jack Bech, TCU

Scheme specific player but the ones he does fit are the Lafeurs, Shanahan, McVay etc and is the type of prospect who finds success in the league as a productive WR2. Played the F/TE at LSU (notably outproduced Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.), then the slot at TCU and now on the outside. Will thrive in a “positionless football” scheme like those mentioned earlier but does have the genuine WR skills anyway. Excellent route runner - besides Hunter he is top of the class for me at finding the soft spot in zone coverages and for his athletic profile, maximises YAC. Could improve blocking ability and main case against is he may not have the athleticism. Half the teams won’t have a good role for him. My instinct is that a good offense will scheme him against the nickel primarily where he provides a great mismatch.

5. Jayden Higgins, Iowa State

Great speed for his size. Particularly excellent vertical ability. Not elusive but can separate with good route running ability and body control. I see a lot of Michael Pittman Jr. in his game. Should be productive in the NFL but may lack explosiveness to be a top tier target in the league. Comeback and curl routes weren’t pretty to watch.

6. Kyle Williams, Washington State

Excellent athleticism - great speed and vertical ability. Awesome route running and release packages - makes a lot of corners whiff (although not great competition). Also fantastic hands. 5 years in college is concerning for his profile; none of them at good programs. Small and very late breakout. At the end of the day, he consistently created and more importantly maintained separation which is skill I really covet. Long term upside is limited should be productive immediately in NFL.

7. Tre Harris, Ole Miss

Ascending player. High school QB who moved to WR at Louisiana Tech, and then transferred upwards. Ole Miss system or not, being productive in the SEC while still familiarising yourself with the position means something. For me, it’s not about his efficiency. Harris is a great athlete who has consistently gotten better and more instinctual through his career. Will be deadly if he can develop intermediate routes but the NFL is a step up and it will take time.

8. Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona

Extremely productive. Plenty of speed for his great size. Really smooth hips and YAC ability for someone of his build. More risky to me than many think because of high proportion he ends up in contested situations. Don’t see how he’ll consistently separate at the next level.

9. Elik Ayomonor, Stanford

Great profile of size, speed (impressive movement skills in general) and excellent blocking ability. Former track athlete and it shows in change of direction. Routes aren’t “smooth” perse but would say there’s a lack of wasted movements. Questionable — bordering on poor — ball skills and injury history (ACL, MCL, meniscus tears) isn’t ideal but was long ago now. Could be great but needs to be coached up. I see the vision but the worry is he won’t get on the field enough early.

10. Savion Williams, TCU

6’ 4”, 222 lbs at WR is a super unique build. Has genuine release packages and route running ability. Also impressed as Wildcat QB which is prompting many to say he should move to RB with his size. Powerful runner and surprising ability to make defenders miss. Terrible inconsistency from game to game - truly don’t know what you’re getting each snap. You also wish he played more special teams for his size. A real mould-breaker though and hopefully he gets to the right play caller.

11. Luther Burden III, Missouri

Upside is incredibly high, excellent speed and YAC skills. Inconsistent ability to win as a route runner and work ethic concerns make it tough to project he can improve this (at least as an outsider scouting him). 2023 tape is electric though and still has excellent movement skills.

12. Tai Felton, Maryland

Great athlete- speed and vertical ability is very impressive especially at his size. Quite lean and frequently ended up with awkward catches. Feel like you’re getting Jahan Dotson at a much better price tag.

13. Jaylin Noel, Iowa State

Great releases and shifty route runner with good speed. Overall great WR skills. Smaller frame wasn’t able to compete with more physical corners. Is a great player but lacks a lot of the things you can’t coach.

14. Tory Horton, Colorado State

Lean, fast player. Clear potential to develop into a field stretcher in the NFL. Injury history isn’t ideal but I’m very in on Horton.

15. Jalen Royals, Utah State

Excellent speed and burst, should move to slot in the NFL. Utah St offense isn’t translatable at all and likely will need to be schemed up touches. Inconsistent route running and drops. Was able to transfer from JUCO to Utah St- why couldn’t he move further up the totem pole? Will be first player drafted from school since Jordan Love.

16. Isaiah Bond, Texas

Game speed pops off the tape. Barely ran any real routes and need to develop ability to separate on deep routes - a concerning comment given off-the-field concerns.

HMs - Out of top 100:

18. Isaac TeSlaa, Arkansas

Solid athlete with special teams versatility.

19. Pat Bryant, Illinois

Good route running; savvy, but not a prospect for me - just not athletic enough.

Tight Ends

1. Tyler Warren, Penn State

Strong receiver and blocker. Versatility to play on all downs will be highly valued. Extremely clean prospect profile.

2. Kolston Loveland, Michigan

Excellent, tough receiver. Great athleticism should see him be a starting TE early.

3. Mason Taylor, LSU

Talented and young. Ascending player with high upside but still raw

4. Elijah Arroyo, Miami

Basically a power slot - will be steady option for a West Coast scheme

5. Harold Fannin Jr, Bowling Green

Should do the job for offences looking for a pass-catching option but skeptical if prolific production against weak competition will translate.

HM - out of top 100:

6. Gunnar Helm, Texas

Still developing but good YAC skills to work off of.