Recap of 2025 picks

As always, betting performance is tracked and verified by BettingPros.

Last year, we finished with a 53-45 record (54.1%) with a profit of +5.80 units (1 unit/bet).

• Spread: 26-22 (54.2%), +2.93 units

• O/U: 27-23 (54.0%), +2.87 units

This placed 36th out of 283 experts. Not bad, but we’ll be aiming for that 1st place we got back in 2022!

This brings Touchdown Squad’s lifetime record (since 2020) to 467-354-10 (56.9%), +89.88 units:

• Spread: 254-192-5 (57.0%), +37.35 units

• O/U: 213-162-5 (56.8%), +52.53 units

Week 1 Picks

To be honest, in most years Weeks 1-3 are where the money’s made. Models and intuition can typically outpace bookies in terms of adjusting to new schemes but this year, the shifts seem to be well understood and value is definitely harder to find. Mainly:

• O/U are on average 1.5 points higher in Week 1s each year, though they turn out to be +2.9 points vs expectation when adjusting for game situations based on our analysis in the last 5 years. I hold the opinion though with the shift being towards heavier sets now (ie more 12, 13 personnel - especially among previously prolific offenses), points total expectations should be tempered and while opening lines looked to have been more valuable, it seems most of them have come back towards me. We will have our chances for example with DET who play lighter sets (although keeping only 6 WRs on the roster doesn’t help), but that time isn’t yet…

• For spreads, new coordinators/HCs who were previously playcallers tend to be tricky since the public goes aggressive on them, and consequently Vegas usually does well. With that being said, I find this year’s crop like Kubiak or McDaniel tougher to fade, mostly since I just believe in them and think they have good environments. So as a similar but maybe underlooked theme, this year I’m targeting the new playcallers on new teams (think Declan Doyle in BAL or Mannion in Philly, for example).

Against the Spread

• Ravens -3.5 @ Colts

  • Happy to fade the Colts this year and as mentioned above I think there’s upside suprise potential for Doyle in BAL. This is a guy who’s been handpicked and learnt under both McVay and Payton.

• Browns +8.5 @ Jaguars

  • Definitely feels gross but given how big the line is, feels like you're getting good value for being contrarian. Public is over 80% on JAX so that helps too.

• Cowboys -2.5 @ Giants (key pick)

  • Long-time fans will know we’ve done lots of analysis on these NFC East games before. Spreads are usually deceptively small but DAL plays well here, and while NYG under Harbaugh will be more competitive, I am surprised the spread is this small given potential snap counts for key NYG offensive pieces.

Over/Under

• Buccaneers/Bengals Under 50.5

  • Doesn’t feel good to side with the public here but have to agree the line is aggressive. CIN offense is explosive but TB defense shouldn’t be doubted this much.

• Browns/Jaguars Over 40.5

  • This is essentially a bet on Monken and/or Coen having some tricks up their sleeve that surprise defenses coming out of the offseason.

• Jets/Titans Over 39.5

  • Another contrarian pick that will either hit big or miss big, but I’d rather bet on the former. Jets defense is horrific and maybeee Geno can still make this thing go. Public is heavily, and I mean heavily (92%!), on the Under.

• Packers/Vikings Over 45.5 (key pick)

  • Back in 2022, KOC’s first game as a HC was a blowout win vs the Packers in Week 1. While I doubt that happens again, these are two fantastic playcallers who seemingly each have offensive hurdles the market is punishing them for. In GB, people are overreacting to Jacobs’ absence - Lafleur has really never been reliant on any one skill-position player, let alone an aging, inefficient buiser back; and in MIN, well we’ll just start betting on them until people get how good this Kyler/KOC combo is gonna be…

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Week 10: 5-4 (+0.71u)

2025 Season Record: 42-40 (51.2%), +1.02 units

Against the Spread

• 49ers -5 at Browns

• Colts -3 vs Texans

• Vikings +12.5 at Seahawks

Over/Under

• Rams/Panthers Under 46

• Saints/Dolphins Over 41.5

• Texans/Colts Over 44

• Bills/Steelers Over 45.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Week 10: 5-2 (+2.79u)

2025 Season Record: 37-36 (50.7%), +0.31 units

Against the Spread

• Bengals +7.5 vs Patriots

• Titans +12.5 vs Seahawks

• Vikings +6.5 at Packers

• Chiefs -3.5 vs Colts

• Jaguars -2.5 at Cardinals

• Cowboys +3 vs Eagles

Over/Under

• Giants/Lions Under 49.5

• Buccaneers/Rams Over 49.5

• Panthers/49ers Under 49.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Week 9: 5-4 (+0.74u)

2025 Season Record: 32-34 (48.5%), -2.48 units

Against the Spread

• Saints +5.5 at Panthers

• Dolphins +9.5 vs Bills

• Packers -1 vs Eagles

Over/Under

• Giants/Bears Under 47.0

• Patriots/Buccaneers Under 48.5

• Lions/Commanders Under 49.5

• Cardinals/Seahawks Under 45.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Week 8: 1-6 (-5.02u)

2025 Season Record: 27-30 (47.4%), -3.22 units

Against the Spread

• Bengals +2.5 vs Bears

• 49ers -2.5 @ Giants

• Steelers +3.5 vs Colts

• Jaguars -2.5 @ Raiders

• Cowboys -3 vs Cardinals

Over/Under

• 49ers/Giants Under 48.5

• Jaguars/Raiders Over 43.5

• Saints/Rams Over 43.5

• Cardinals/Cowboys Under 53.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Week 6: 2-5 (-3.22u)

2025 Season Record: 26-24 (52.0%), +0.56 units

Against the Spread

• Dolphins +7 @ Falcons

• Cowboys +3.5 @ Cowboys

• Titans +14.5 @ Colts

• Commanders +11.5 @ Chiefs

Over/Under

• Bills/Panthers Under 46.5

• Cowboys/Broncos Under 50.5

• Titans/Colts Under 47.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Last Week: 6-3 (+2.78u)

2025 Season Record: 24-19 (55.8%), +3.77 units

Against the Spread

• Cowboys -3

• Jaguars +1.5

• 49ers +3.5

Over/Under

• Rams/Ravens Over 44.5

• Cardinals/Colts Under 46.5

• Patriots/Saints Under 45.5

• Bills/Falcons Under 49.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Last Week: 5-2 (+2.75u)

2025 Season Record: 18-16 (52.9%), +0.99 units

Against the Spread

• Ravens +1.5

• Dolphins -1.5

• Cowboys -1.5

• Buccaneers +3.5

Over/Under

• Vikings/Browns Over 35.5

• Texans/Ravens Over 40.5

• Cowboys/Jets Under 47.5

• Buccaneers/Seahawks Over 44

• Patriots/Bills Under 49.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Last Week: 4-5 (-1.22u)

2025 Season Record: 13-14 (48.1%), -1.76 units

Against the Spread

• Rams -3.5

• Chiefs +2.5

Over/Under

• Vikings/Steelers Over 40.5

• Saints/Bills Under 48.5

• Texans/Titans Over 38.5

• Commanders/Falcons Over 43.5

• Colts/Rams Under 49.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Last Week: 4-5 (-1.22u)

2025 Season Record: 9-9 (50.0%), -0.54 units

Against the Spread

• Saints +7.5 @ Seahawks

• Cowboys -1.5 @ Bears

• 49ers -2.5 vs Cardinals

Over/Under

• Falcons/Panthers Over 43.5

• Texans/Jaguars Over 43.5

• Bengals/Vikings Over 42.5

• Rams/Eagles Over 44.5

• Raiders/Commanders Over 43.5

• Cowboys/Bears Under 50.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

Week 2 Picks

Last Week: 5-4 (+0.68u)

Against the Spread

• Vikings -3.5 vs. Falcons

• Buccaneers +2.5 @ Texans

• Chargers -3 @ Raiders

Over/Under

• Browns/Ravens Under 45.5

• 49ers/Saints Over 40.5

• Bills/Jets Under 47.5

• Cardinals/Panthers Under 44.5

• Broncos/Colts Under 43.5

• Falcons/Vikings Over 44.5

Good luck this week!

Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines

• Minimum of 6 picks/week.

• Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.

• Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.

• If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and strikethroughs if necessary (with replacement picks).

• Please gamble responsibly.

This post has a few parts:

• Changes to Touchdown Squad picks

• Recap of 2024 picks

• Week 1 Picks

• Season Long Win Total Picks

Changes to Touchdown Squad picks

This year, with me starting a new job, Touchdown Squad’s picks will be free. The paid tier will be deactivated for now and everyone will be transitioned to the free tier. I’ll revisit this for next year, but I hope everyone enjoys the picks!

Recap of 2024 picks

As always, betting performance is tracked and verified by BettingPros.

Last year, we finished with an 85-66-3 record (56.3%) with a profit of 10.88 units (1 unit/bet):

• Spread: 40-33-2 (55.4%), +3.47 units

• O/U: 45-33-1 (58.4%), +7.52 units

This brings Touchdown Squad’s lifetime record (since 2020) to 414-309-10 (57.3%), +84.08 units:

• Spread: 228-170-5 (57.3%), +34.44 units

• O/U: 186-139-5 (57.2%), +49.64 units

This placed me 22nd out of 306 experts in 2024 - overall a very solid year with profit in both bet types. With that being said though, this year I’ll be aiming again for that 1st place I got in 2022!

Week 1 Picks

Interestingly, early in the year tends to be when I’ve done the best. Looking at my splits on BettingPros, Weeks 1-5 account for 56% of my positive ROI, with the first two weeks in particular being my strongest.

Week 1-2 Splits from 2020-2024:

• Spread: 47-30 (61.0%)

• O/U: 41-27-1 (60.3%)

The uncertainty of new players, coaches, etc is always a potential source of mispricings early in the year, and this year I see lots of opportunities in Week 1:

2025 Record: 0-0-0 (-%), 0.00 units

Against the Spread

• Dolphins +1.5 @ Colts

• Saints +6.5 vs. Cardinals

• 49ers -1.5 @ Seahawks

• Rams -3 vs. Texans

• Bills +1.5 vs. Ravens

• Vikings -1.5 vs. Bears

Over/Under

• Raiders/Patriots Over 43.5

• Giants/Commanders Under 45.5

• Texans/Rams Over 43.5

Season Long Win Total Picks

One of my favourite bet types (if you’re willing to let your money sit there all season) is season-long win totals. Last year we went 6-1, and here are my picks for this year:

• Colts Under 7.5 Wins

• Cowboys Over 7.5 Wins

• Commanders Over 9.5 Wins

• Seahawks Under 8.5 Wins

• Dolphins Over 7.5 Wins

• Cardinals Under 8.5 Wins

• Saints Over 4.5 Wins

• Vikings Over 8.5 Wins

Good luck everyone this year!

For the playoffs, I’ll highlight all 12 picks by confidence level - up to you how far down the list you’d like to bet. Hope everyone enjoys a great week of games.

Last Week: 4-1-1 (+2.69u)

Final 2024 Record: 69-57-3 (54.7%), +5.89 units

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