In 2021, Jack Miller from RotoViz released an article with this graph in it:

What this graph explains is that WRs outproduce RBs at every point in the draft. But see that little air bubble in the middle? The WR-RB points differential is much greater in Rounds 3-6, where WRs provide superior value above what you can find later, compared to a smaller dropoff at RB.

Miller argued that drafters should avoid RBs through these middle rounds and instead prioritise the much less fragile WRs to “win the flex”.

He titled his theory “The RB Dead Zone”.

Of course, his theory would catch on. Egged on by disappointments that year like Kerryon Johnson or Mike Davis at top-12 RB price tags, Miller’s work fanned the flames of older strategies like Zero or Hero RB and thrust them into the spotlight. This was now the meta of fantasy football.

This framework of drafting WRs through the flex has dictated every strategy I’ve used since, but in each year that passes, the market becomes more and more aware.

In 2020, 13 of the top 14 picks in full PPR were RBs but last year, only 4 were. The proliferation of these teams has become extreme — there’s no more room left for the pendulum to swing. Playoff rates of teams with 4 and 5 WRs in their first 5 picks dropped back below 50% last year for the first time since 2016.

All this to say, I’m looking to get ahead of the curve while I still can. I see this year as the last one to profit off zigging when others zag. The mid-round RB is back.

Affordability

Here’s a list of where the RB13 (high-end RB2) has been ranked on ESPN’s default PPR rankings each of the last 6 years:

• 2020: 2.02

• 2021: 2.10

• 2022: 2.11

• 2023: 3.08

• 2024: 3.07

• 2025: 4.01

That’s a 2-round drop in the last 5 years. But even just looking at the last 3 years, it’s clear if the dead-zone wasn’t dead yet, it should be now.

There’s also this stat from Ryan Heath (who we’ll discuss more later):

Both of these are telling us that RB2s are as cheap as they’ve ever been - even home leagues are now pricing them efficiently.

This year, looking at both Mike Clay and Rich Hribar’s projections, RBs and WRs basically project for the same amount of points as each other from Rounds 1-5. Round 6 is where the WRs begin to separate, but it’s worth noting this year, that could be because of rookies like Harvey and Henderson who are likely being drafted above where their “projection” would indicate.

Lesson here: that air bubble from above has been popped.

“Running backs get hurt more”

So we’ve established running backs are basically as cheap as ever - but that still leaves the underlying reason behind RB Zero - their fragility. Historically, RB Zero has succeeded because RBs get injured more than WRs, so as other teams’ early investments in RB fall, your team only rises in relative value (especially if you hit on a handcuff).

But is this still true? Not really.

Top 24 ADP WRs vs RBs missing 4+ games

Year       WRs         RBs

2021       6           12
2022       7           6
2023       6           8
2024       8           4

And for 2024 that doesn’t include Rice, Godwin or Higgins who all missed 4+ games.

Keen cynics among you may ask, haven’t the WRs gone up because more of them are being drafted in the top 24? Well, that’s kinda the point — maybe they shouldn’t be.

In a league where 400+ touch bellcow RBs don’t happen much anymore, and penalties are getting softer each year, I’m starting to believe our original assumption (RBs get injured more) doesn’t and won’t hold in the future. Or at least WRs are about as likely to miss games as an RB drafted around them, given each position’s new respective market pricing.

Still a need for caution

RBs may not be getting injured more than WRs anymore, but they are still less predictable…

Consider Breece Hall last season. He was, as Pat Kerrane has termed, a “silent killer”. He had a more detrimental impact on teams in terms of advancement and championship rates than players who were out for most of the season because at least for the latter, you knew you could bench them.

I’d highly recommend reading Ryan Heath’s Anatomy of a League Winner article - probably the best piece of writing from this fantasy offseason and something I’ll be referencing throughout this. Here’s a table from that article:

What this says essentially is RBs in the first 40 picks bust 26.7% more than WRs.

So while RBs aren’t getting injured as much as they used to, considering their adjusted price, the numbers say RBs are structurally less predictable (ie. introduce a higher downside risk) than WRs, regardless of price.

And this makes sense - RB is a much more opportunity-dependent position compared to WR, where even in bad offenses, talented WRs will still get open, and command targets.

RB Zero relying on waivers

The other argument for RB Zero was that each year, top 24 or even top 12 RB value could be found on waivers. Heath points out that the market has wised up to this recently, and that RB or WRs who end up starting in fantasy playoff teams, have nearly gone extinct.

The days of 2017 Alvin Kamara or 2018 Devonta Freeman off waivers are gone. And this is particularly relevant for teams in more sharp, competitive leagues, where your edge of being more aware than leaguemates on waivers gets diminished (if someone actually does break out, you still have to fight 11 others for them).

For sharp leagues, this is also true for handcuffs and committee members — they are all getting drafted now because people have learned this contingent upside needs to be prioritised.

RB Zero truthers may argue replacement-level RB production is still able to be found off waivers. For example, the combination of Kareem Hunt, Jordan Mason and Ameer Abdullah combined to be the RB17 last year. But in the fantasy playoffs, they were outside the top 36 RBs.

This idea of RB “patchwork” off waivers is good for a quick fix but at a conceptual level, it totally contradicts the idea of RB Zero: a team that only gets stronger as the year goes on.

What to do in 2025

RBs

With that chart earlier implying RBs and WRs are equally flex-viable until Round 7, somewhere between 1 and 3 RBs in the first 6 rounds is probably optimal. After that, take as many RBs as needed for depth: if you invested multiple early picks then ease off; if you took them in Rounds 5 and 6, hammer them a bit more later on.

WRs

Lots of talk about running backs, let’s talk about wide receivers. We are still better at drafting (the right) WRs early, and we can leverage this by leaning into WR hard early. Below is another table from Ryan Heath displaying the recent trend of round 1 WRs being truly difference-making.

Your biggest edge at WR is now in Round 1 works nicely, knowing RBs are priced better in Rounds 2-6 than in previous years.

I see this as meaning we want to have 2-4 WRs through Round 6, and at least 4 through Round 8. After Round 6, if you are still filling out your flex spots, that’s when I would go back into leaning WR.

Once you’ve filled your flex positions, this WR lean shouldn’t hold anymore.

QBs and TEs

Just a quick comment on these for this year. Note - this is not a player takes article. this is a macro strategy view so it can still make sense to take a player if you love them/are getting a value, even if not optimal strategically.

At TE: When you take out Kelce, the data says not only is TE bad in the mid-rounds, but actually it’s always optimal to punt the position unless you get a really great value. For 2025, this is hard because Bowers, McBride and Kittle are compelling options so it really depends on how you feel about them. Just keep in mind the numbers are saying to pass though.

At QB: Either draft one of the elite guys early, or wait it out. In terms of applying it to this year, once you get past Mahomes, I would prefer to wait.

What the future holds

While RB Zero/Hero has given you an inherent edge in previous years, it’s clear that has been erased.

When we look back at the canon of fantasy football, I believe we will see the RB Zero days of the early 2020s as the extremity that it’s been: a fringe tactic which successfully exploited the community’s naivety. But the leading edge has now become the mainstream.

I’ll still be mixing in RB Zero teams here and there when opportunities present themselves, but it’s a lot harder to do. Without the need to starve yourself through Rounds 3-6, there are just way fewer spots where it makes sense to deploy.

In many leagues, I believe a balanced approach will pay dividends this year. But for those in sharper leagues like myself, I think the answer lies in predicting what the next RB-Zero is. Finding the future dominant strategy will be harder this time, given that we are in an era with much smarter market pricing. Perhaps there lies what should be exploited though…

I see pricing efficiency as near its peak. The last 15-20 years of fantasy have been based upon “value-based drafting”. The logic behind not taking a QB first-round, for example, is that even though they score the most points, there’s a smaller dropoff compared to the skill positions.

My view is that we are nearing value-based drafting’s final form. We are at an inflection point for fantasy football, and now is the time to be bold and take risks. In 5 years, we’ll be looking back thinking how wasn’t it obvious where drafting would go from here? And the answer will be because people didn’t think big enough.

As for my theory… stay tuned for the next article.

Headlines

• Labor retains majority government with 76 seats (-1) ; Coalition secures 54 seats (-4); crossbench expands to 20 seats (+4).1

• Senate composition of 27 Coalition (-3), 26 ALP (+1), 12 Greens (-), 3 One Nation (+2), 5 Independents (-).

• 52-48 two-party preferred national vote for Labor. Primary vote breakdown: Coalition 34%, Labor 31%, Greens 12%, One Nation 7%, Others 16%.

The polls would indicate Labor will be in government, achieving somewhere between 74-80 seats (this is a narrow range - a full range of outcomes is more like 71-85 seats; the main point being Labor will be in minority government even in their worst case scenario). Pundits and betting odds price Labor to get 78 seats.

I have Labor slightly underperforming the most recent polls, mostly due to favouring the better quality data from ~5 days ago which was more around a 50/50 as to whether they’ll achieve a majority. I also think there’s been effective campaigning on the issue of crime from the Coalition in marginal seats this week (in what has otherwise been a very poor campaign).

The main prognosticating differentiator in this election will be in forecasting preference flows as primary vote for the two major parties continues to decline. My forecast assumes a fairly steep drop to around 64.5% of the primary vote going to the major parties.

The Greens’ nationwide primary declines by around 1% as they focus policies on their target seats and suffer a bleed to the Teals, while One Nation increases their primary result by roughly 1.5%.

With One Nation polling this well, their preference flows will be crucial for the Coalition - if it matches the QLD state election of nearly 90% to the Coalition, then 60+ seats remain possible for them. However, such preference discipline on a national scale seems unlikely (the 2022 Federal Election was 70%). My view is that One Nation and other minor right-wing party voters are more malleable voters, and that immigration as an issue alone cannot sustain the preference flows needed for the Coalition to carry some of their marginal seats, especially in rural/semi-rural areas (think seats like Cowper and Calare). I think this bodes well for Labor’s chances in toss-up seats such as Macnamara, Sturt, Menzies, and Brisbane, as well as in the upper house.

Toss-up seats

These are the 37 seats I see as in play for today, and which will decide the election (this assumes a base for Labor of 66 seats, 40 for the Coalition, Adam Bandt for the Greens, and then 6 for the crossbench.

Projected changing seats

ALP gain:

• Sturt (from Coalition)

• Menzies (from Coalition)

• Brisbane (from Greens)

Coalition gain:

• Aston (from ALP)

• Lyons (from ALP)

• Gilmore (from ALP)

Greens gain:

• Richmond (from ALP)

• Wills (from ALP)

Independents gain:

• Calare (from Coalition)

• Monash (from Coalition)

• Bradfield (from Coalition)

• Cowper (from Coalition)

Projected retained seats (seats they need to defend)

ALP:

Lingiari, Chisholm, Bullwinkel, Paterson, Macnamara, McEwen, Bennelong

Coalition:

Deakin, Leichhardt, Forrest, Bass, Banks, Longman, McPherson, Canning, Moore, Casey, Wannon

Greens:

Ryan, Griffith

Independents:

Goldstein, Mackellar, Fowler, Curtin

Safe seat projections

Here are my full seat projections below for anyone curious enough to know how I got to my numbers. Each category is listed from most to least likely:

Safe ALP retain (56)

Brand, Grayndler, Fenner, Kingston, Chifley, Burt, Hasluck, Barton, Scullin, Makin, Hotham, Swan, Cowan, Kingsford Smith, Gellibrand, Rankin, Maribyrnong, Sydney, Oxley, Pearce, Blaxland, Macarthur, Ballarat, Canberra, Lalor, Spence, Corio, Gorton, Lilley, Perth, Fraser, Cunningham, Newcastle, Isaacs, Eden-Monaro, Calwell, Bendigo, Jagajaga, Greenway, Watson, Hawke, Whitlam, McMahon, Dobell, Franklin, Holt, Moreton, Shortland, Reid, Solomon, Adelaide, Parramatta, Corangamite, Fremantle, Macquarie, Hindmarsh

Likely ALP retain (10)

Bruce, Dunkley, Tangney, Hunter, Bean, Blair, Robertson, Boothby, Cooper, Werriwa

Safe Coalition retain (30)

Cook, Mitchell, Maranoa, Herbert, La Trobe, Dawson, Fadden, Barker, Farrer, Moncrieff, Hume, Berowra, Hinkler, Wide Bay, Grey, Capricornia, Bowman, Wright, Fairfax, Lindsay, Fisher, Groom, Gippsland, Mallee, Nicholls, Parkes, New England, Riverina, Page, Durack

Likely Coalition retain (10)

Petrie, Hughes, Flynn, Bonner, Forde, Flinders, O'Connor, Lyne, Dickson, Braddon

Likely Crossbench retain (7)

Warringah (IND), Clark (IND), Melbourne (GRN), Kennedy (KAP), Indi (IND), Mayo (CA), Wentworth (IND).

Rookie receivers

• Brock Bowers is a locked-in top 3 TE ROS - 88.0 PFF grade is the highest rookie TE PFF grade ever.

• Malik Nabers has been rough - still getting amazing volume (30.4% targets/ route run - 2nd in league) but this was the preseason concern that he can’t do anything with it in that putrid offense. Without Andrew Thomas, Nabers has 26 receptions for 221 receiving yards in 4 games; really bad efficiency for 42 targets.

  • If he isn’t scoring the TDs he becomes more of a Diontae Johnson (Steelers version) type play. Hard to see the upside.

  • For the record, I still believe strongly in Nabers long-term (ie. future years).

• Marvin Harrison Jr. had a fantastic week, absolutely torching Sauce Gardner.

• I’d be wary of Brian Thomas Jr, there’s a chance with the season going nowhere and him being half-injured that they slowly fade him out for this year. Look to sell if you can and I’d ideally only start him in favourable matchups.

• The Chargers passing offense has found new life since their bye with Justin Herbert not throwing an INT in 7 games now. Sadly it hasn’t trickled through to Ladd McConkey yet - let’s hope he can find some more production as the year ends.

• Rome Odunze has been brutal efficiency-wise (1.29 yards per route - 101st out of 119 receivers) but to be fair that offense is awful. In redraft it’s hard to trust him moving forward, I think he needs a full offseason to find his footing as a receiver in the league.

• Xavier Worthy is now below 1 yard per route run (bottom 5 on that same list as Odunze and without the offensive troubles as a real excuse). He can safely be dropped and sadly for the Chiefs, no WR has ever had even 800 yards in a season after posting a <1 YPPR season as a rookie. He had everything break his way: Hollywood Brown injured, Rashee Rice injured and he just simply couldn’t perform (hence the Hopkins trade). I think we’re justified in calling him the newest 40-yard merchant bust.

• Ricky Pearsall is averaging 5 targets a game since his debut and his PFF grade has improved each week. If he can break through his ~70% route participation, he is definitely drawing live to be this year’s late-season rookie-WR league-winner.

• They finally let Jermaine Burton play and he fucked it up real bad - Iosivas back as WR3 moving forward.

• Jalen Coker is knocking on the door of an 80+ PFF grade, only achieved as a rookie WR by Diggs, Jefferson, Chase, Nucua, and St. Brown (likely Nabers will join them too). Bit of a bummer week for him but I am extremely bullish on him long-term.

• Devaughn Vele has cemented himself as the WR2 ahead of Lil Jordan Humphrey and fellow rookie Troy Franklin - the question is if this offense has enough to support a 2nd fantasy-relevant WR. Good add in deep or very competitive leagues.

“Win the 7th”

- Russell Wilson’s version of “Let’s Ride” for the Steelers.

Cringe aside, the Russ effect is real! George Pickens has come alive with outrageous catches and much-improved fantasy production. The main difference has not been in the quantity of his targets, but the quality of them:

7.0 targets per game with both Fields and Wilson but his:

• aDOT has improved from 12.6 yards to 16.6

• Air yards/per game improved from 88 to 116

• Endzone targets/per game improved from 0.5 to 1.7

• And of course fantasy points/game from 10.1 to 18.0

His 3.21 yards per route run is only behind Nico Collins on the season. Arguably a top-12 weekly WR play for the moment.

Mike Williams ran 7 routes but of course caught the game-winning TD. With Wilson, there is definitely upside for him to be TD-dependant, decent flex play weekly when he starts running more routes.

Pat Friermuth also ran about 70% of the routes and got a receiving TD - viable to stream in good matchups.

JaMarr Chase has 3 50+ point PPR games. That’s more than Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Calvin Johnson combined.

Might have the single highest weekly ceiling of all time. Only player ever with 3 50+ point games.

Give Mac Jones one more week, Cooper Rush not so much

With these two replacing their respective starters, neither situation is ideal. But the Vikings are the best defense in the league this year in terms of EPA/play - if you have Evan Engram I think he is still playable but ideally none of the RBs or WRs.

Cooper Rush on the other hand was just miserable with zero consolations - CeeDee Lamb is now a low-end WR2 and Rico Dowdle is a touchdown-dependant RB2/flex. Huge downgrades to everyone.

One extra note on the Jags game - TJ Hockenson is back as a top-6 TE ROS.

Broncos backfield shakeup

Out of nowhere, Sean Payton decided it’s Audric Estime time, leading the backfield considerably in snap share and touches. Javonte Williams should be rostered but not started and Jaleel McLaughlin should be dropped. Definitely pick up Estime but I wouldn’t go nuts, he didn’t do an awful lot with all his volume.

And don’t look now, but Courtland Sutton has 10 targets/game in his last 4 games, performing as the WR4 overall in that timespan.

Calvin Ridley has arrived

Since DeAndre Hopkins’ departure, Calvin Ridley has averaged a 36% target share and 20.1 PPR points per games (compared to 21% and 7.5 PPG with Hopkins). Even with Levis and Rudolph, Ridley can be played as a top-24 WR moving forward.

With Tyjae Spears back, this week was brutal for Tony Pollard owners. Coming off a 31 touch game in Week 9, he goes back down to 53% of the snaps this week (85% last week). Spears took the other 47% of snaps meaning this is essentially a 50/50 split moving forward. Both of them are matchup dependant RB2s moving forward; a firm downgrade from Pollard’s top 15 status before.

Chargers thoughts

Gus Edwards was more efficient than JK Dobbins this week which doesn’t bode well for Dobbins moving forward, especially if Hasaan Haskins is in the mix vulturing TDs. If the two-way split with the third guy taking the goal line work continues, in a newly pass-heavy offense, it’s hard to trust any of the backs on the Chargers.

In addition to Justin Herbert’s no-INT streak, he’s also seemingly become a mobile QB lately? 2 of his career 6 games with 30+ rushing yards have come in the last 3 weeks - if he can add a rushing floor to his fantasy skillset, he’d become a top-10 play weekly.

Just a little “fantasy theory” lesson related to this: remember that QB rushing is a tendency stat, not athleticism or ability-based. Herbert’s athleticism score from the combine is actually higher than Josh Allen’s but its simply the nature in how each of these two play QB that determines their rushing output. This is the same reason why Richardson despite being an athletic freak, was only 15th in scramble rate (he did get rushing TDs though).

CMC is back

Christian McCaffrey basically scored his floor this week and it was 16.7 PPR points - if you’ve waited, it seems he will finally reward your patience in these next few weeks.

Jauan Jennings looks like a high-end flex play with 11 targets and earned the highest PFF grade in the receiver room. Deebo Samuel on the other hand doesn’t seem to have the efficiency right now (with him it could always come back though). I’d just temper expectations for him at the moment as more of a low-end WR2 play. We spoke about Ricky Pearsall earlier but I’d rank him as a flex-play with big upside moving forward.

Bijan RB1 overall?

25.5, 23.3, 23.6, 21.5, 29.4 points are Bijan Robinson’s last 5 games. When we’re looking for a true league-winning RB, we want 23-24+ PPG. Henry, Mixon, Kamara, and Saquon seem to be capping out around 21-22 (still good for RB1 overall some years) but if Bijan’s dominance continues, he might be the one that could eclipse that elite benchmark and be the league-winner from this draft out of nowhere.

In addition to Bijan, Henry, Mixon, Kamara, and Saquon, I would add Achane and McCaffrey as the 7-man race for this year’s true league winner down the stretch. Sadly Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall seem to be losing volume from their team's pass-heavy approaches.

Mike Tomlin is incredible

Seeing Diontae Johnson become the latest WR to become so toxic outside the Steelers, it amazes me that Mike Tomlin could keep Johnson, Martavis Bryant, Antonio Brown, George Pickens currently, and many more over the years all under control. His stable culture and ability to find ways to win like on Sunday show why he’s one of the greatest coaches of our generation.

Death of the passing offense

Here are passing touchdowns through Week 2 of each season:

• 2018: 114

• 2019: 105

• 2020: 110

• 2021: 110

• 2022: 105

• 2023: 86

• And 2024… 68 TDs

Passing yards per game follow the same trend, being below 200 passing yards per team and this is also the highest sack rate in the first 2 weeks of the season since 1999 (7.8%).

It’s hard to know all the answers to this but as I spoke about in my betting picks last week, Cover 2 High packages have continued to dominate offenses this season. This result has been to take what the defense is giving teams - consistent running plans against light boxes. Most teams using Shanahan/McVay style schemes will need to adapt quickly.

The Saints look scary

I say most teams because Klint Kubiak and his explosive Saints offense have been quite the exception. Through two games the Saints rank 1st in Expected Points Added/Play, and 1st in play action rate. A far cry from their 30th in both those categories a year ago. The OL is wildly improved with McCoy, Ruiz, and rookie Fuaga playing at all-pro level, and Saldiveri/Penning (now at RT) playing well enough to get by. Carr is consistently attacking down the field, which is even more impressive against these conservative Cover 2 schemes. Olave is a clear buy-low candidate - eventually the Saints won’t be winning every game by 5 possessions and Olave’s 34% target share will matter when they have to throw the ball more than 16 times.

Everyone’s hurt

Nearly every first-round pick this year hasn’t worked out so far, with even Hall and Jefferson (quad injury) not being complete hits. Injuries have decimated NFL (and fantasy) teams with CMC, Puka, Kupp, AJ Brown, Deebo, Pacheco, Walker, Love, and Tua highlighting a long list of sidelined players. Hopefully, you’ve been able to avoid the injury bug but in the likely case you haven’t, I would be active on the trade market trying to buy these players if you are 2-0 or sell them if you are 0-2. Puka and Pacheco though I would completely avoid (if you have them like I do, try to sell them in a couple of weeks for any price you can).

Rookie receivers erupt

Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers both exploded in Week 2 with equally ridiculous statlines:

MHJ: 4 rec / 8 targets, 130 yards, 2 TDs (38.1% target share)

Nabers: 10 rec / 18 targets, 127 yards, 1 TD (64.3% target share)

Both are historic performances that make statements after underwhelming Week 1s.

Beyond them though, Brock Bowers looks like a potential top-3 TE rest-of-season - trade for him if you still can. McConkey had another great week of usage with a 31.2% target/routes run and Brian Thomas Jr. continues to look like a steal in drafts.

A couple of other names to mention: I wouldn’t worry about Coleman yet - he’s still running all the routes so the targets should come. And finally Erick All - maybe more of a dynasty stash but someone to keep our eyes on.

Sophomore rebounds

A few second-year players that underwhelmed last year, now looking better:

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 37.2% target share. I’m all in.

• Jameson Williams: 11 targets, 129 air yards. I want to see it for one more week before trading for him but I’m afraid if he does it again, he’ll be untouchable. Do not sell unless you get a massive offer. Overall, I land more in the camp he’ll be a boom/bust WR2 - think peak Mike Williams or Will Fuller.

• Quentin Johnson: It’s disgusting but QJ has 21% and 32% target shares these past two weeks, the two highest marks of his career. I can’t endorse starting him but he may demand a roster spot in case he’s the WR1 in this offense.

No start zones

Here are some offenses that look so awful, I’m not sure you can start anyone.

• Bears: Even with some injuries to concentrate target share, this offense looks so stagnant that not even DJ Moore is someone I’d like to start. Austin Gayle pointed out on Twitter that Caleb Williams’ 3.0 net yards per attempt is the worst for any quarterback in Weeks 1 and 2 in the last 10 years. Granted this is a very cherrypicked stat and I do believe in Williams for the long term, just not right now.

• Broncos: Bo Nix on the other hand… teams just simply aren’t scared of him. So much so that the Broncos have faced a stacked box on 57.9% of their plays this year. 2nd place is the 49ers with 39.6%. A huge gap that renders Javonte Williams a desperation start at best.

• Panthers: Andy Dalton stepping in makes Diontae flex-viable but I’d avoid everyone if you can.

• Colts: Proceed as usual with Richardson and Taylor, this is more of a Michael Pittman Jr. warning. Given where Pittman went in drafts, you likely have to start him but his catch rate has dropped from 69.9% last year to 46.7% this year. Richardson comes with his ups and downs; if Pierce, Downs and Mitchell have a bigger role than we thought, Pittman’s upside — especially in PPR leagues where he was drafted to be a target hog — becomes severely limited.

• Packers: While Malik Willis is under center, only Jacobs is startable. Even with Love back, ideally Reed is a bye-week fill-in rather than an every-week starter for you. He produces when given the volume but this offense thrives because of how well they mix everyone in.

• Rams: I still think the Rams might surprise people with their competitiveness despite these injuries but as far as fantasy, I would avoid everyone. Including Kyren. In 2022 games without Kupp, the Rams had the lowest neutral pass rate in the league. Kyren is about to face completely stacked boxes every week that will heavily stifle his efficiency. Leaguemates may buy that the team will have to rely on him - trade him to those people.

Ambiguous backfields

• Browns: Absolutely baffling what the Browns did in Week 2. After Ford put in a very efficient Week 1, they decided to give D’Onta Foreman twice as many carries as him in Week 2. It’s clear they’re going to mix it up and this will be a nightmare committee. I hate to say it because I was so in on Ford but all of them should be avoided.

• Steelers: Arthur Smith is loving his new RBs. Najee continues to get ~55% of the carries and Warren’s share increased from 5% to 28%. The best part is that it wasn’t at the expense of Najee but instead Patterson and Fields. Both Harris and Warren are viable RB2s.

• Cowboys: Despite getting blown out, this offense will still be good. Unfortunately though, Deuce Vaughn is receiving work as the 2 to Dowdle/Zeke’s 1A/B. A two-man committee could’ve worked but three? Not for me. I would still roster Dowdle in hopes his talent will earn him a featured role eventually.

• Chiefs: Another three-man committee incoming. With Pacheco going down, Steele will probably get slightly more of the work than Perine, but the latter’s touches will be more valuable, especially in PPR leagues. Eventually, Hunt will work his way in too. Perine is startable if needed for the next couple weeks, and then we will have to check back in.

• Raiders: White continues to cede touches, with Mattison getting the goal-line work in Week 2. I’d trade White if you still can - even if he produces I wouldn’t start him until a clear usage gap exists.

• Bengals and Titans: Chase Brown and Tyjae Spears (with his injury) have sadly become afterthoughts in their offenses. Pollard looks explosive and is likely a top 12-15 RB rest-of-season; Moss is a solid RB2.

Let me know if there’s anything you want me to cover next week. Good luck with your matchups and I’ll be back soon with some betting picks.

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After this past week, here are the ten takeaways I have ranging across both fantasy and betting:

Take a deep breath, don’t overreact

Whether it’s your fantasy team or a season-long future, we’ve seen many times where Week 1 is incredibly misleading. In fact for fantasy, it takes until Week 4 for weekly rankings to have any meaningful correlation with end-of-season rankings - there’s no need to panic on anyone just yet.

Tight end usage was woeful, LaPorta and McBride the ones to beat

Likely and McBride were the only tight ends with any real roles in Week 1 (everyone else had <10 expected fantasy points per PFF) - an interesting trend for both fantasy and betting to take note of if it continues in Week 2.

For fantasy, I would trust Likely in your lineups until further notice. Regardless of Andrews being double-teamed in 94% of routes, Likely’s 78% snap share is no joke and he’s the third option in that offense at worst.

Rookie pass-catchers to target in fantasy and props

Underlying metrics and overall usage were very strong for Brian Thomas Jr. (76.2 PFF grade and a staggering 15% 1st down/route run) and Ladd McConkey (32% target/route run) in their debuts. Behind them were Keon Coleman (90% route participation) and Brock Bowers (78% route participation). Look to go after all of these guys where you can.

Retro Cooper Kupp

Congratulations if you drafted Cooper Kupp this year in fantasy. 100% of the routes run, 41% targets/routes run, and a 44% target share. Absolute smash pick.

Cautiously optimistic about Saquon, Kyren

Saquon looked explosive in his Eagles debut and he looks to have overall RB1 upside. Kyren had a monster snap share and put any worry about his punt-returning duties to rest. I wouldn't be too concerned about Corum just yet either, the only issue that arose for him is that Ronnie Rivers does seem to have a role this year.

It was a strange game script so I wouldn’t be putting all my chips in yet, but Taylor had elite usage (95% snap share, 85% of carries). Promising for the weeks ahead but will still need receptions.

Ambiguous backfields

1. Tennessee - Not overwhelming but Pollard appears to be the clear 1A for the time being.

2. Cincinnati - Really tough for us Brown truthers… Moss seems to be the lead back with Brown just mixing in here and there.

3. Buccaneers - Good usage for both in a blowout win. Volume was a win for White but Irving was most productive - will be a backfield to keep an eye on.

4. Jags - The Bigsby hype was real - he needs to rostered in all fantasy leagues as a premier handcuff and has standalone value regardless.

5. Panthers - I’d avoid everyone in this offense for now. It looked horrific and the Hubbard/Sanders split meant neither was usable.

6. Cowboys - Zeke has the edge for now over Dowdle but in my opinion this could flip-flop each week.

7. Raiders - Perfect example of why to avoid dead zone backs - Zamir White was outsnapped 59% to 39% by… Alexander Mattison. We’ll have to see how this shakes out next week but White shouldn’t be trusted.

8. Broncos - Wheels up on McLaughlin, Payton seems to really trust him; Javonte didn’t get the usage we were hoping for.

9. Chargers - As long as Dobbins is healthy, he’s a must-start in fantasy. Just remember he’s here for a good time, not a long time.

10. Steelers - With Cordarelle Patterson having a role, it will be hard to start Warren for the moment. Najee looks very solid.

Atlanta offense hampered by Kirk

Bijan — free from the reigns of Arthur Smith — finally got the usage he deserves. Unfortunately in Cousins’ first week, it’s clear they were *incredibly* nervous about him taking hits… he broke the tackle box just once, with zero play-action snaps (!!), and zero under-center snaps.

Vikings will be fine, what about the Browns?

Even without McCarthy, Darnold (with Kevin O’Connell’s system) looks very capable of supporting this offense. Granted, it was the Giants, but the top 3 neutral pass rate suggests this offense will continue to hum.

Speaking of neutral pass rate, the Browns led the league last week at 75%. If this continues along with Watson’s poor play, the calls for Jameis Winston to replace him will grow louder and louder. That would be a great outcome for fantasy with Cooper’s value especially likely to skyrocket.

Are the Saints actually good?

Klint Kubiak’s offense looked lively, leading the league in pre-snap motion. This poses really well for Olave (great buy-low candidate) and Shaheed. Let’s just hope Carr can keep up this quality of play.

Richardson, Texans WRs will feast this season

Richardson only completed 9 passes this week but still finished as a top 5 QB in fantasy… insane weekly floor and upside. It also looks like this Texans offense should be able to support all three Texans WRs, with Dell’s pass drops and penalties holding him back from a big day too.

Hope you all enjoy the Bills/Dolphins game and I’ll be back later this week for my Week 2 picks!

Running backs bust at a significantly higher rate than wide receivers, however, owning a 20+ PPG back massively boosts your team’s championship chances. The takeaway here is to be picky at RB — only take guys you think have a chance at an RB1 overall season because a solid “floor” doesn’t really exist for any RB.

In fantasy there are three ways to go at RB in the first few rounds which will inform how you construct your team for the rest of the draft:

• Double Hero RB: Selecting two RBs in the hopes of having two league-winning running backs. This is extremely risky but if you can thread the needle, you are nearly guaranteed to have one of the best teams in your league. The catch is that of the 12-15 options in the first few rounds, only 2-4 will make this strategy worthwhile and missing one of these picks puts you at a large disadvantage. After taking your two RBs, you shouldn’t touch RB again until Round 9/10. I would also only try this strategy in Half PPR leagues or ones where you can only start three WRs.

• Hero RB: The most versatile strategy which can be applied to nearly any format. Take an RB early and then take a few late-round guys. Between that and being active on the waiver wire, the hope is that you can find RB2 production, and benefit from the high draft capital you invested at receiver.

• Zero RB: Likely only suitable for PPR leagues where you can start 4+ WRs, Zero RB takes Hero RB to the extreme. You punt RB until Round 6/7, prioritising a strong WR core and an elite QB and/or TE. Then take a stable of late RBs and hope you can find solid RB production (also using the waiver wire). While this may feel risky, there’s an argument that taking RB is riskier than WR at each individual pick, so maybe investing any high draft capital into RB is actually the riskier option. Zero RB has a shockingly impressive track record and may be worth a try if you haven’t before.

With this in mind, I’ve essentially split my rankings into how much of a chance a player has at league-winning upside. Here’s my RB rankings for 2024, along with the rounds I’m comfortable targeting them:

Tier 1 - Elite RB1’s

These three feel more likely than not to give you a huge advantage this year.

1. Christian McCaffrey (SF) - Round 1

2. Breece Hall (NYJ) - Round 1

3. Bijan Robinson (ATL) - Round 1

Tier 2 - RB1 Candidates

Strong cases can be made for each of these guys for how they could achieve a league-winning season. Maybe not likely but the path is clear.

4. Jonathan Taylor (IND) - Round 1

5. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) - Round 2

6. De’Von Achane (MIA) - Round 2

7. Kyren Williams (LAR) - Round 2

8. Saquon Barkley (NYG) - Round 3

9. Isiah Pacheco (KC) - Round 3

10. Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) - Round 3

Tier 3 - Value RB1’s?

With the success of early WR’s in recent years, RBs who would have used to go in the top 2 rounds are falling this year. Some interesting teams can be built by going after this tier as “hero” RBs, while still getting elite WRs. Just make sure you’re getting good value and not reaching because these guys do still have some genuine concerns.

11. Derrick Henry (BAL) - Round 4

12. James Cook (BUF) - Round 4

13. Josh Jacobs (GB) - Round 4

14. Joe Mixon (HOU) - Round 5

15. Kenneth Walker II (SEA) - Round 5

Tier 4 - Dead Zone

I would strongly avoid this range unless you are getting a “too good to be true” value - the opportunity cost of the WRs you would be passing up on is just so high in most leagues.

15. Rachaad White (TB) - Round 6

16. David Montgomery (DET) - Round 6

17. Najee Harris (PIT) - Round 7

18. Aaron Jones (MIN) - Round 6

19. Alvin Kamara (NO) - Round 6

20. Jaylen Warren (PIT) - Round 7

21. Jonathon Brooks (CAR) - Round 8

22. Zamir White (LV) - Round 8

23. Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) - Round 9

24. Chase Brown (CIN) - Round 9

25. Tyjae Spears (TEN) - Round 9

26. Raheem Mostert (MIA) - Round 10

27. James Conner (ARI) - Round 10

28. D’Andre Swift (CHI) - Round 10

29. Zack Moss (CIN) - Round 10

30. Tony Pollard (TEN) - Round 11

31. Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) - Round 11

Tier 5 - Late Round Priorities

My preferred picks to try and find that RB2 late.

32. Blake Corum (LAR) - Round 11

33. Javonte Williams (DEN) - Round 11

34. Trey Benson (ARI) - Round 11

35. Jerome Ford (CLE) - Round 12

36. Gus Edwards (LAC) - Round 12

37. Rico Dowdle (DAL) - Round 12

38. Jaylen Wright (MIA) - Round 12

39. Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) - Round 12

Tier 6 - Fliers

Hopefully you can fill out your bench with the guys above, the rest of these are ones you can take a swing on but be ready to drop quickly when an RB on waivers looks more promising.

40. Austin Ekeler (WAS) - Round 13+

41. J.K. Dobbins (LAC) - Round 13+

42. Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) - Round 13+

43. Audric Estime (DEN) - Round 13+

44. Zach Charbonnet (SEA) - Round 13+

45. Ty Chandler (MIN) - Round 13+

46. Tyler Allgeier (ATL) - Round 13+

47. Braelon Allen (NYJ) - Round 13+

48. Bucky Irving (TB) - Round 13+

49. Antonio Gibson (NE) - Round 13+

50. Nick Chubb (CLE) - Round 13+

51. Tank Bigsby (JAC) - Round 13+

52. Jordan Mason (SF) - Round 13+

Hope this helps with your draft - stay tuned for more positions coming soon.

But since the introduction of the “mobile QB”, rushing output has provided a floor for these options, making them worth drafting inside the top 4/5 rounds. Take Justin Fields for example, who may not be an effective passer in the NFL, but his 8.0 points per game average *only through rushing* made him at least a quality option every week, with the upside for 40+ point weeks when he can throw for production too.

This year, the landscape looks a bit different. Realistically, any of the top 10-12 guys can be top 5 QBs this year - you’re mostly paying for the level of safety. The top 4 of Allen, Hurts, Mahomes and Lamar should be high-end QB1’s if healthy, whereas Jayden Daniels could also be, but has a much wider range of outcomes.

My strategy this year is to target whoever’s going latest in that top group of 10-12 guys, or draft two later options if they’re all gone. My biggest target is Jordan Love, while my biggest fade is Joe Burrow. With all that said, here are my rankings along with what round I’m comfortable targeting them in 12-team leagues:

Tier 1 - High-End QB1’s

1. Josh Allen (BUF) - Round 3

2. Jalen Hurts (PHI) - Round 4

3. Patrick Mahomes (KC) - Round 4

4. Lamar Jackson (BAL) - Round 4

Tier 2 - Quality QB1’s

5. Anthony Richardson (IND) - Round 5

6. CJ Stroud (HOU) - Round 6

7. Kyler Murray (ARI) - Round 6

8. Dak Prescott (DAL) - Round 7

9. Jordan Love (GB) - Round 8

10. Jayden Daniels (WAS) - Round 9

11. Brock Purdy (SF) - Round 9

Tier 3 - Take two of these if you miss out

12. Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) - Round 11

13. Joe Burrow (CIN) - Round 11

14. Caleb Williams (CHI) - Round 12

15. Trevor Lawrence (JAX) - Round 13+

16. Jared Goff (DET) - Round 13+

17. Deshaun Watson (CLE) - Round 13+

18. Justin Herbert (LAC) - Round 13+

19. Matthew Stafford (LAR) - Round 13+

Everyone else can be safely left on waivers - only in consideration as plus-matchup streaming options.

I hope my take on the QB market this year helps!