Seventy-eight games into the 2024–25 NBA regular season, and the playoff picture feels extremely congested. This is especially true in the Western Conference, where the current third-seed Lakers could end up anywhere from second to eighth.

Let’s unpack this incredible race for playoff advantages.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have locked up the one seed, and the lowest Houston can land is third. The Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Memphis Grizzlies all have an extremely stressful week of basketball ahead. While they’ve each clinched a postseason berth, their final seedings remain undecided. Rarely do we see such an immense deadlock in the league; it means this week matters significantly more for some than others, and it certainly won’t subject viewers to the usual pattern of superstar rest and postseason preparation.

Another interesting impediment this presents is the necessity for these teams to not only win their remaining games, but also mentally and physically prepare for an upcoming playoff opponent, without knowing who that opponent will be. Additionally, one must wonder whether a team might intentionally tank their final few games in the hope of securing a preferable playoff or play-in matchup.

There are an incredible number of possibilities that could drastically alter the playoff picture. Buckle up - this week is going to be wild.

Shaquille O’Neal and the state of the NBA

The 2024–25 NBA season has faced a severe level of backlash, with fans underwhelmed by the quality of performance and the overall state of the product. During a recent episode of The Big Podcast featuring guest Roy Wood Jr., Shaquille O’Neal — 1x NBA MVP (1999–2000) and 3x NBA Finals MVP (2000, 2001, 2002) — voiced his frustration with the current standard of basketball in a furious rant that began with: “The NBA just isn’t what it used to be.”

His aggression was primarily directed at the longevity of players and the culture of resting starters far more often than he believes would have been tolerated two decades ago. “I’ve seen what greatness is, so you want me to give these motherf***ers the same props you’re giving them? That st will never happen.”

He also directly addressed the saga surrounding Ben Simmons, furiously stating: “A lot of motherf***ers can’t play and they know it… Ben Simmons needs to be f***ing arrested.”

The speech centred around the apparent ease with which players can now earn life-altering contracts without genuinely deserving them or proving their worth to a team. Shaq makes it clear that wearing an NBA jersey does not automatically entitle a player to respect. These remarks come as current players increasingly vocalise their frustration with the rise of ‘gossip culture,’ wherein former players feel entitled to criticise anyone, anytime, without facing backlash. Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving recently commented during a livestream: “I’m sick of these former players talking s**t, I’m tired of the Gossip Culture.”

Shaq’s comments about Ben Simmons blew up on social media. The former number one overall pick has played only 48 games this season, averaging 4 points and 3 assists, while having “stolen” over $203 million throughout his career. Since leaving the Philadelphia 76ers in 2022, Simmons has played just 105 out of a possible 246 games.

This season, in particular, players appear more resilient in the face of criticism veiled behind a screen or said behind closed doors. The clearest example was the recent altercation between LeBron James and Stephen A. Smith, in which Smith was caught off guard and apologised to James - only to resume criticising him as soon as they were no longer in the same building.

Personally, I believe the ongoing backlash against the NBA stems from this media obsession with Gossip Culture and the perceived softness of the game. People continually forget that what’s publicly said about an NBA player - at the highest level of media distribution - has significant ripple effects. It doesn’t just affect the player’s performance, but also their mental health, willingness to compete, family, community, and ultimately reflects poorly on the speaker themselves. The entitlement to speak on live TV about a player’s flaws without a hint of constructive criticism solely for clicks and attention is pathetic. There are no checks and balances for these leaks; media personalities act as if they’re untouchable, ignoring their responsibility to report truthfully and accurately in favour of boosting their own popularity. The NBA doesn’t have a player quality problem, nor a ‘game’s gone soft’ issue - it has a media selfishness and entitlement problem, and right now, it’s inescapable.

Key award races

As the end of the regular season rapidly approaches, so too do the last opportunities for players to make their case for a particular award. A few award races remain genuinely up in the air:

Defensive Player of the Year: What could’ve been the first (of likely many) DPOY awards for Victor Wembanyama has instead become a tightly packed race between Evan Mobley, Draymond Green, Jaren Jackson Jr., Dyson Daniels, and Luguentz Dort. My current pick is Mobley. Averaging 2 blocks, 1 steal, and 7 defensive rebounds, Mobley has been an incredibly versatile asset for the number one seed Cleveland Cavaliers. His ability to shut down the interior and force players into contested mid-range shots, blocked layups, or complete possession resets has marked a significant improvement from his play last season.

Coach of the Year: The key debate for this award lies in its criteria - should it be based on performance, year-to-year improvement, or consistency? If based purely on performance, it must go to Oklahoma City Thunder coach Mark Daigneault, who has his team in a position to win 70 games. If focused on impact, J.B. Bickerstaff deserves recognition for turning the Detroit Pistons from 14–68 to 43–35 and clinching a playoff spot. For consistency, Kenny Atkinson has not only sustained his success with the Cavaliers but also exceeded expectations year after year. It’s a tightly contested award, but I believe Kenny Atkinson will take it.

Most Valuable Player: The season-long two-man race between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic has lived up to the hype. Both are having outstanding seasons, and the battle many predicted back in October has certainly delivered. Personally, I don’t understand why Shai is so far ahead of Jokic in MVP predictions. That said, I still believe Shai will win it. He leads the league in scoring, averaging an impressive 33 points per game. Jokic, however, is averaging a triple-double with 30 points (3rd), 13 rebounds (2nd), and 10 assists (2nd). That’s an astounding feat, and I don’t fully understand why the gap isn’t closer, at least according to sportsbooks. Shai is currently the heavy favourite at -4000, with Jokic at +1200. I believe MVP voters will see the race as tighter than betting odds suggest, but SGA will ultimately edge out Jokic and claim the award.

Last Sunday, the Minnesota Timberwolves hosted the Detroit Pistons. Amidst the Wolves’ 123–104 victory, a punch-up which spilled into the stands was the story of the night. It was an extremely physical start, with players being separated by teammates and officials numerous times before the fight eventually broke out.

With 8:36 left in the second quarter, Ron Holland II was called for a foul on Naz Reid. After going face to face with a lot of talk involved, Donte DiVincenzo – who minutes earlier had gotten into an argument with Pistons centre Isaiah Stewart – grabbed Holland’s jersey and eventually threw him to the ground. This sparked players and coaches from both teams to enter the skirmish and made the replay centre’s job extremely difficult. As the players were being separated, Pistons head coach J.B. Bickerstaff and Timberwolves assistant Pablo Prigioni were screaming at each other and had to be separated by team personnel.

The officials ultimately ejected J.B. Bickerstaff, Isaiah Stewart, Ron Holland II, Marcus Sasser, Naz Reid, and Donte DiVincenzo, along with assistant coach Pablo Prigioni.

J.B. Bickerstaff didn’t back down after the game, stating that “obviously things went too far… but what you see is guys looking out for one another, guys trying to protect one another, guys trying to have each other’s backs… Those are non-negotiables in our locker room.”

The 12 technical fouls distributed in this game were the most in an NBA game since 2005.

Four of the five players – Ron Holland II, Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, and Marcus Sasser – received a one-game ban, while Isaiah Stewart received a two-game ban due to his “repeated history of unsportsmanlike acts.”

The Grizzlies Fire Head Coach Taylor Jenkins

In an extremely surprising move, the Memphis Grizzlies, currently 5th in the West with a 44–31 record, have fired their head coach of six years. It was announced by the front office that the team had nothing to do with the decision and were not even aware until the news broke publicly. Firing the winningest head coach in franchise history so close to the playoffs, especially with your team in a fantastic position, is an extremely confusing decision, and leads me to think there is something remaining unsaid – perhaps discontent, off-court controversy, or another impediment which has not yet been disclosed…

The Grizzlies replaced Jenkins with Tuomas Iisalo, a first-year coach who now has an impossible task ahead of him: to perform, produce, and find the form they had earlier in the season, which landed them in 2nd in the West. Over the past few weeks, the team underwent a rough patch, going 8–12 in their last 20. While this change isn’t necessarily a bad decision – especially considering the state of the Grizzlies over the past few years, featuring occasional shots at a deep playoff run – doing it amidst a rough patch in what has otherwise been a highly impressive season is extremely unprecedented.

Another interesting component is the morale of the team, especially their superstar Ja Morant, who not only is now uncertain of his security with the team but also has lost the only NBA coach he’s ever had. Interestingly, when asked about the adapted play style under the new head coach, Morant stated that “if that’s what it is, whatever coach wanna call, man, I’m fine with it.” Ja seems somewhat defeated by the move and the apparent lack of clear-cut communication between organisation and team.

With only five games left in the season, the Grizzlies have clinched at least a play-in position, and have a very short amount of time to switch gears and focus back on the playoffs under a new regime.

Celtics Setting Franchise Records

On their most recent road trip, the Celtics made franchise history with an impressive 6–0 record. The victories themselves were rather ordinary – with the team only beating one current playoff/play-in team – but it continues to prove the strength of this team’s ability to win on the road, extending their season record to a league-leading 32–7.

In another historic feat, Derrick White reached 246 made three-pointers, breaking Isaiah Thomas’ record of 245 set in 2017. Meanwhile, Jayson Tatum and Payton Pritchard both currently sit at 240 three-pointers made this season, meaning they will almost certainly break the previous record as well. There is now a three-man race for franchise history, yet Derrick White has a comfortable lead.

Amidst the brutality of lingering, recurring, and season-ending injuries, NBA teams will often take certain liberties in order to ensure the imminent worsening of the team’s season in the hopes of a higher draft pick in the coming season. This is commonly known as a ‘tank,’ and is a key component of a team's rebuild. A tank can appear in many forms, from trading away players for future picks, resting different players across different games to buy a loss, or, as most commonly, shutting down players for the rest of the season. Despite the league’s best attempts to prevent struggling teams from tanking, organisations have repeatedly found ways to drop games, rest stars, and patiently wait for the future.

A large impediment towards the league’s distaste for tanking is the great strength of upcoming draft classes. Over the past few years the emerging draft class has been lacklustre, however, for the foreseeable future, this trend seems to have shifted. Pioneered by near-guaranteed #1 pick Cooper Flagg out of Duke University, teams invested in a rebuild for the past few years such as the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets and Toronto Raptors have been joined by injury-ridden teams such as the New Orleans Pelicans, Philadelphia 76ers and San Antonio Spurs.

For the Philadelphia 76ers, this season has been underwhelming, yet the decision to tank came as a result of the shutting down of Joel Embiid for the season, which subsequently resulted in Paul George getting shut down to work on some lingering injuries.

San Antonio Spurs were much the same, following their promising start to the season, generational talent Victor Wembanyama was shut down with Deep Vein Thrombosis, and subsequently the organisation allowed D’Aaron Fox to have his injured hand operated on, finishing him for the season. It is crucial to note that this surgery was not time-sensitive. By shutting him down and permitting him to receive surgery, the Spurs are committing to a losing season, focusing on next year's draft.

The NBA has various league-wide restrictions to prevent a team from tanking, such as the recently implemented ‘player participation policy,’ rejecting the concept of load management, as well as NBA executive investigations should they suspect a team of tanking, but is there any legitimate solution? Numerous ideas have been floated but the enforceability/value of these ideas is questionable:

Flattening the lottery odds: Instead of the worst team having the highest chance of the first overall pick, these odds would be adjusted to make things slightly more even, intended to inspire an identity among teams of ‘fight for the playoffs, if we miss we still have a shot at a high pick.’ However, this comes with an obvious impediment — with too many teams given a chance at the top pick, more teams might be interested in the first pick than a push for the playoffs.

Count wins instead of losses after the All-Star break: This suggestion would reverse the way wins and losses are counted for the last 20 games of the season, instead rewarding teams with a greater win percentage with a higher lottery pick, supposedly incentivising worse teams to play harder and not to rest starters, but a perplexing suggestion in a climate where some bad teams are tanking, and some bad teams are bad. This doesn’t level the playing field so much as it does isolate genuinely struggling teams while spoon-feeding better teams who have a tanking attitude.

Remove pick protections: This is a really interesting concept, suggesting that instead of flattening outcomes in order to prevent being the third instead of fourth, or the eighth instead of ninth. However, this is more of a response to late-stage tanking, such as the Mavericks in 2023 which resulted in Derrick Lively, and not necessarily long-term tanking.

Tanking is a difficult process — logistically, physically and emotionally — however for the NBA executive office, it seems incredibly difficult to completely eliminate. When teams get off to bad starts, it is historically difficult for a single season rejuvenation, thereby a bad start inspires hope at a better next season.

Bulls win 8 of last 10

The Chicago Bulls continue to fight for a playoff spot, recording 8 wins in their last 10 games, moving ahead of the Miami Heat into 9th place with a 32-40 record, only two games behind the Orlando Magic. This stretch of great play includes a 31-point win over the fully healthy Lakers, a 12-point win over the Kings, and a 10-point win over the Nuggets. The superstar for the Bulls the past few weeks has been Coby White, averaging 31/5/4 over the last 10. White has been on the way to leading the team for the past few years, yet now, following the departure of both Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, he has been given the green light. Josh Giddey has also been extremely impressive, not only the past few games, but his entire first season with the Bulls — over his last 10 he averages 23/10/10, an unbelievable all-court average. The Bulls have been extremely dominant in the past few weeks, and while I am not convinced they can make legitimate waves in the playoffs, it could be an exciting underdog story…

Mavericks reinstate Anthony Davis

In a highly questionable roster decision, the Dallas Mavericks have reinstated All-Star centre Anthony Davis following a one-month sidelining with an adductor strain. This move is questionable due to the current state of the Mavericks. Following the trade of their franchise player, Davis was injured in the first half of his first game with his new team. Following this, the Mavericks have fallen out of play-in position, yet can still reach a spot. However, they will have to do it without Kyrie Irving, who is out for the season with a torn ACL, and Dereck Lively II, who has been out since January with an ankle injury. Reinstating a heavily injury-prone player after he has just been out with a nagging injury while the team has no legitimate shot at the finals without their star is an interesting decision. The risk-reward is simply not valuable. The Mavericks should’ve given AD more time to rest, or just shut him down.

Through 68 games, the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, and Memphis Grizzlies are in a deadlock for the 2nd seed in the Western Conference. All with a record of 43-25, the remaining 14 games will be the difference between 2nd and 4th. To make matters more interesting, the Los Angeles Lakers (40-25) have three games in hand and are easily in the race for the 2nd seed as well.

Luka has been spectacular over the past few weeks. However, as a result of LeBron’s groin strain sidelining him since 8 March, the Lakers have dropped games they really should be winning, including a narrow loss to the Nets and a 20-point loss to the Bucks. James is expected to miss another week of action, and once back, the Lakers will look to continue the impressive level of play they established before the injury.

Meanwhile, the Warriors (39-28) and the Timberwolves (39-29) are both in a position to make a run. The Warriors have been unbelievable since acquiring Jimmy Butler, going 16-2 and continually making their way up in the seeding. For the Timberwolves, this season has been rather disappointing. However, the team has still held up to an impressive standard of basketball, especially in their past few games, including comfortable wins against the Magic and the Nuggets.

With consideration for all of the above, the NBA is in a position where the Houston Rockets, the current 2nd seed, could end up in 7th place if they drop a few games that the aforementioned teams pick up. The Western Conference is extremely tough this year, as it has been in years prior. However, it still feels as though any team wanting to take it all the way will have to go through Oklahoma City. Regardless, the next few weeks of basketball between these top teams will be extremely entertaining. It is genuinely anyone's game.

Warriors go 16-2

In what is easily the best team turnaround of the season, the Golden State Warriors, since acquiring Jimmy Butler, are 16-2 and have jumped from mid-play-in seeding to a solidified playoff position, with an opportunity to steal even higher seeding in the next few weeks.

Jimmy Butler has been fantastic, averaging 16 points, 6 assists, and 6 rebounds. However, the team's success comes off the back of confidence and joy rather than purely basketball talent. Looking at the monthly splits of Stephen Curry, this becomes extremely clear. Throughout the first four months of the season, Curry’s averages were as follows:

• October: 18/5/6

• November: 23/5/6

• December: 21/6/4

• January: 22/5/4

However, following the acquisition of Butler on 7 February and throughout his 18 games with the Warriors, Curry has averaged 29 points, 6 assists, and 5 rebounds, including a 56-point performance against the Orlando Magic. He has also averaged a 68.9% true shooting percentage, which before 7 February was at 49.9%.

This team has had an extremely impressive mid-season turnaround and is back in contention as potential finals favourites. They are in a rhythm that hasn't been seen since—dare I say—2016. There is also an acknowledgement within the Warriors that their three stars—Curry, Butler, and Green—do not have long left in the league. This is their best chance to get a ring before retirement, and they are giving it everything they can.

Orlando Magic snap Cleveland Cavaliers’ streak

On Sunday, the Orlando Magic snapped the Cleveland Cavaliers’ 16-game winning streak in an impressive 108-103 victory in Cleveland.

This was a collective team win by the Magic, with Paolo Banchero totalling 24/11/7, Franz Wagner finishing with 22/8, and Wendell Carter Jr. delivering an impressive 16/14. Two other players also scored 15+ points.

Meanwhile, for the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell was solid with 23/6/5, Jarrett Allen had 20/12, and Darius Garland finished with 19/6/4. With only two other players above 10 points, it was a disappointing outing from their role players. Especially with Evan Mobley ruled out for this game, the Cavs needed someone else to step up, and it simply didn’t happen.

This 16-game winning streak was incredibly impressive, and the Cavaliers will almost certainly finish with 60+ wins—and could even near the 70-win territory...

ACC

The falloff of the ACC is here, and it’s even uglier than most could have predicted. Pre-tournament, this power conference of 18(!) teams is currently projected to have three teams make the tournament field, with Duke, Louisville, and Clemson all tournament locks at this point. However, there are still a few teams in Charlotte this week vying for a spot in the tournament with Wake Forest, UNC and SMU all firmly on the bubble, albeit the wrong side of it. However, there is a path for at most two teams to get back onto the right side of the bubble.

SMU’s tournament hopes are on life support right now. The Ponies have failed to record a single Q1 win this year. Combine this with a poor non-conference schedule and declining metrics, their only hope of tournament qualification likely rests on a rather improbable trip to the championship game, relying on wins against both Louisville and Clemson along the way. UNC and Wake Forest stand in each other’s way for a ticket to the tournament. A second-round win for UNC should set up what is essentially a win or go home game for both program’s seasons in the quarterfinals. A loss for Wake Forest in this game would eliminate them from tournament contention entirely. While there may be a path for UNC even with a loss, it would require a lot of things to go right. For the winner of this game, a win against Duke in the semifinals would likely get either team over the hump and into the tournament. A loss in this game most likely eliminates Wake Forest and once again leaves UNC very vulnerable come Selection Sunday having to rely on its top 40 metrics and an absolutely brutal non-conference SOS.

Theoretically there are three realistic contenders for the ACC Championship: Duke, Clemson and Louisville. In reality there is only one. Jon Scheyer has built a monster this year, led by ACC Freshman and Player of the Year Cooper Flagg, the Blue Devils have played their way to an impressive 19-1 record in conference play. Not only are they the best team in the nation in terms of overall adjusted efficiency this year, they rank as one of the best of all time in this metric. It’s silly to pick anyone other than the Blue Devils with such an easy path to the title and such a weak conference field.

Prediction: Duke

Value Bets I like: None

Big10

On paper, the Big 10 has looked solid, possibly even quite good this year. In reality, this conference is starting to fall off at the wrong time of the year. What was once a conference that looked like it might produce multiple contenders in March is now one where many are starting to count how many early exits we might see. 1 seed Michigan State all the way through to 8 seed Oregon are all locked in. However, there are still two teams that come into this tournament with aspirations of a bid, Indiana and Ohio State. For Indiana, this will be Mike Woodson’s last hurrah, a win over Oregon in the second round will more than likely do the job in securing a bid and might possibly even secure a final bye. A loss may not spell the end though for Woodson and the Hoosiers given the three Q1A wins on their resume although it would certainly make for some tense viewing on Selection Sunday. Ohio State sits just two games above .500 and are currently the last team in. The Buckeyes need to put together a streak if they want any chance of remaining on the right side of the bubble. This means a win against Iowa in the first round and a win against Illinois in the second round. Anything less would likely spell an early end to the season for the Buckeyes.

A lot of the Big 10 comes into this year's tournament on a considerable cold streak. Early season powerhouses such as Purdue and Wisconsin have faded over the last few weeks and Michigan looks like a shell of the team they were a month ago. Enter the inevitable, Tom Izzo, now the winningest coach in the history of the Big 10. Izzo and the Spartans are enjoying a dominant stretch of play at the moment and come into this tournament as not only the hottest team in the Big 10 but also as one of the hottest teams in the nation. It’s quite simple, Michigan State should and will win the Big 10 tournament, over the course of their seven game win streak they continue to prove that they can beat teams in multiple ways whether it be stifling defense or offensive flurries from beyond the arc. Tom Izzo has been here before and he knows well what it takes to win this tournament. Michigan State currently sits around +250 to win the tournament, a surprise for a team that is easily the most in form in the field and also has the easiest path to the championship with possible matchups against Oregon or Indiana and UCLA or Wisconsin. Don’t overthink it, Indianapolis will be showering in Sparty green and white come Saturday.

Prediction: Michigan State

Value Bets I like: Michigan State

Big12

These Big 12 schools should be embarrassed. What Kelvin Sampson and the Houston Cougars have done to this conference over the past two years is nothing short of miraculous. We’ve seen teams make the jump from mid-major to power conference before. That in and of itself is nothing new. However, what Sampson and the Cougars have done to this conference is simply beyond belief. Houston have gone 34-4 across their first two years in this conference, thirty four and four (!!!). They have now won back to back regular season titles and are now eyeing up their first tournament title as members of the Big 12. I would not blame anyone for thinking that Houston will cruise to a Big 12 Championship. As has been a staple of all Kelvin Sampson teams, their defense has been impermeable all year, giving even the best players in the country trouble in finding their spots and creating open looks. Combine this with an offense that is humming through their main facilitator LJ Cryer and you have a team that not only looks like strong contenders in the Big 12 but strong contenders to become National Champions.

However, there are some teams who could cause Houston a bit of trouble. The most likely to knock them off is Texas Tech and they are actually the team who I believe will win this tournament. Texas Tech has sneakily become one of the best teams in the country this season. Grant McCasland has built what he proclaims to be the best roster he has ever put together and it really shows. Texas Tech currently sits seventh in the nation in NET rating thanks to a dominant offense led by Big 12 player of the year JT Toppin. This team is not afraid to shoot the ball and is one of the best teams in the nation at spacing the floor, running their offense through primary ball screens and creating open looks from both the midrange and beyond the arc. The Red Raiders have leaned heavily into their shooting strengths making double digit threes in more than half of their games this year. Combine this with the fact that Texas Tech were the only team to beat Houston in conference play, shorthanded as well I should mention and the case feels quite compelling for Texas Tech to pull off the upset again.

Teams such as Iowa State and Arizona also have quite good cases to win this tournament but their runs largely rely on the health of their respective teams. One team that is possibly being overlooked right now is BYU. Behind Houston, BYU finished the season with the second best winning streak having not dropped a game since the 9th of February. With their odds sitting at +1000 to win three games I quite like the value for a team that has proven it can beat the top teams in the Big 12 and is running hot at the right time. The Big 12 is one of the only tournaments with no true bubble teams. TCU and Cincinnati come into this tournament with a path to a bid but both teams likely require at least two, possibly even three wins along their respective paths to get back into bubble conversation. Every team from 1 seed Houston through to 6 seed Kansas is locked into a bid. Baylor and West Virginia should both make the tournament. However, a first match loss for either team could drop them close enough to the cut line where they could be caught out by bid stealers.

Prediction: Texas Tech

Value Bets I like: BYU

SEC

The 14 bid dream is well and truly alive for the SEC. The SEC has been nothing short of exceptional this year from top to bottom. Not only has it been by far the best conference this year in terms of NET rating and non conference record but some believe the SEC field this year ranks among some of the best of all time. From this 16 team field there are 12 teams that are pretty much locked in for a tournament bid ranging from the 1 seed Auburn all the way to the 12 seed Vanderbilt. In Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology Oklahoma landed in the first spot of the Last Four In. Oklahoma can essentially lock up a tournament bid with a win against Georgia in the first round. Even with a loss, Oklahoma should still have a decent chance to make the tournament although they would very much be at threat from bid stealers and other championship week risers if they do drop the game against Georgia. The other team looking to lock up a tournament spot this week is the Texas Longhorns. Currently sitting on the First Four Out, Texas likely needs to beat both Vanderbilt and A&M to feel even remotely confident about a tournament bid.

As for who can win this tournament it truly is anyone’s best guess. Auburn has been the class of the SEC and college basketball all year and it feels hard to bet against them, although dropping their final two regular season games means they come into this tournament on a bit of a cold streak. Florida is easily the hottest team in the SEC at the moment, rattling off straight wins at Alabama and against Texas A&M in the final week of the season and could be seen as the favourites to win the whole thing. There are also great cases for Tennessee, Texas A&M and Kentucky. However, the team I’m backing to win it all is Alabama. Alabama has been up and down over the final month of the season but look revitalised following an impressive away win at Auburn. Nate Oats’ team feels like it’s built for these tournament settings. Alabama plays chaos ball so to speak, their pace of play is historically high. Such a high pace of play is designed to unsettle the teams they play and thus beat teams with overwhelming offense and just enough stops on defense. It’s quite a simple but logical playing philosophy, more shots = more points. Oats has a plethora of offensive firepower in his side who can beat teams both on the perimeter with Marc Sears and Labaron Philon and in the paint with Grant Nelson and others, and unlike last year’s team, this Alabama team has significantly cleaned up its defense jumping all the way to 31 in KenPom defensive efficiency compared to an abysmal ranking of 111 last year. This team has the playstyle and the tools to get hot, combine this with the motivation of clinching a one seed if they were to win the tournament and I believe Alabama will edge out the rest of the field and take the SEC title.

Prediction: Alabama

Value Bets I like: Anyone other than Auburn & Florida

Big East

It’s been a down year for the Big East. Reigning national champions UConn have looked underwhelming and other perennial tournament teams such as Creighton, Marquette and Villanova look downright disappointing. Enter St. John's, not only the story of the Big East this year but possibly even the story of college basketball. Rick Pitino’s return to the NCAA with the Red Storm has been nothing short of spectacular, leading the program to a Big East regular season title for the first time in 40 years and a top 10 ranking in the nation, all in his first two years in the job. The Johnnies play a suffocating brand of basketball relying largely on defensive prowess and slick zone transitioning between the perimeter and the paint. If you want to see some nearly flawless defensive basketball I highly recommend you google some St. John's highlights for your viewing pleasure. Although it hasn’t been completely smooth sailing for Pitino and the Johnnies this year, the offense has taken a pretty significant step back in year 2. St John’s shooting consistency remains their biggest downfall and may hold them back from winning it all in the National tournament. Even with the offensive issues, St. Johns looked dominant in conference play, often playing a very grinding style of basketball through a largely limited selection of shots under the basket and around the free throw line. It feels wrong to pick against the Johnnies especially when they are playing the tournament on a home court (MSG) and are also undefeated at MSG this year.

As for the rest of the field there’s really only one team in the field playing for tournament implications this week. Xavier come into this tournament off the back of one of the best winning streaks in the Big East this season. They currently sit on the Last Four In and have a golden opportunity (excuse the pun) to lock up a tournament bid with a win over Marquette in their opening round match. A loss would in all likelihood eliminate them from tournament contention. The only other team that could possibly steal a spot in the tournament could be Villanova. Villanova have been eliminated from at large contention which is a crime given how Eric Dixon is playing at the moment. Their only path into the tournament would be to win the Big East title outright and steal a bid. While it feels unlikely, this Villanova team has demonstrated that it can hang with the best in the Big East on any given day with big wins against St. Johns, UConn and Marquette in regular season play. The only real issue is on any given day the same Villanova team that lost to Columbia (a sub-250 KenPom team) could also show up.

Prediction: St. Johns

Value Bets I like: None

This past week, Celtics guard Derrick White and Sixth Man of the Year frontrunner Payton Pritchard both scored 41 and 43 points in a 10-point win against the Trail Blazers. In a game where the Celtics were without Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday, White and Pritchard marked the first time in Celtics history a duo has ever had 40+ points in the same game. This is an incredibly impressive feat — not just for the total points recorded for the team but for what it represents. The Celtics have created a team of players ready to step up and take their opportunity, a promising motif for the upcoming playoffs. It was evident last year as well when Derrick White’s 35-point game against the Heat sealed the deal for the first round. The playoffs are only between four or five teams at the moment, but it is shaping up to be an extremely exciting few weeks.

Cavaliers on a 14-game win streak

The Cavaliers continue to prove to any remaining doubters that they are for real and a team no one wants to face in the playoffs. The Cavaliers extended their win streak to 14 with a win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday. Donovan Mitchell has been the key, averaging 27/4/4. Jarrett Allen has also been great with 13/10, and Evan Mobley continues his run for DPOY with 18/11/4/2. This team is the definition of "stay ready" — there has been no set system relying on one player to win them the game. The best example of this is Max Strus’ 17 points against Milwaukee, wherein Donovan Mitchell scored under 15. There are so many ways this Cavaliers team can beat you that it makes it extremely difficult to fight for a win: shut down Donovan Mitchell? Here are five other guys who can win us the game. The Cavaliers lead the NBA with a 53-11 record and look to extend the streak against Brooklyn on Tuesday.

Two Marquee Matchups

Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics

In the newest chapter of this iconic rivalry between these two storied franchises, the addition of Luka Dončić set the stage for a possible finals preview. The Lakers got off to a hot start, calmly navigating the Celtics' double team on LeBron and Luka, trusting their role players to knock down wide-open threes. Both teams were lighting it up from deep, going a combined 12/21 from three in the first quarter. By halftime, the Celtics led 58-54, with Jayson Tatum’s 22 points and Jaylen Brown’s 16 points responsible for the four-point lead, which by the end of the third had blossomed into a 20-point lead. Luka led the hopes for a fourth-quarter comeback, the Lakers outscoring the Celtics in the fourth by 10, but ultimately the Celtics held on for a 10-point win. The final score was 111-101 — another Jayson Tatum masterclass with 40/12/8, as well as great performances from Jaylen Brown (31/6) and Luka Dončić (34/8). This loss snapped an eight-game win streak for the Lakers and sealed the fourth straight win for the Celtics.

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

The battle of first and second in the West. There were no surprises as to who had their mark on this game, and they were both off to a hot start — Nikola Jokić with 14 in the first quarter, ending with 24/13/9, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 12 in the first quarter, ending with 40/8/5. The two MVP frontrunners fought an interesting matchup, yet ultimately the Thunder ran away with it in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Nuggets by 21 to take a 127-103 win. Jalen Williams was also impressive with 26/9/8, meanwhile Michael Porter Jr. had 24, Christian Braun 19, and Jamal Murray 17. After recently stealing the number one spot with a historic 30/20/20 game, Shai might pull back to first following this victory. It feels as though this is Shai’s MVP to lose.

Earlier this week, the first of many revenge games between Luka Dončić and the Dallas Mavericks took place. An energetic, wire-to-wire game was ultimately won by the newest member of the Lakers. Luka had a chip on his shoulder this game, not simply for the trade and the way things ended between him and the Mavs organisation but for the ongoing assassination of his character in the media, mostly purported by the Mavs front office, who are still releasing defaming statements as to why he wasn’t the right fit for the team. From supposedly nearing 270 pounds to getting shut down by Jaylen Brown in the finals, to his ‘catastrophic habits’ of beer and hookah, Dallas are doing everything in their power to justify the trade and ruin his chance of success elsewhere. Luka’s response? 19 points, 15 rebounds and 12 assists, as well as the win.

I had the pleasure of visiting Crypto.com Arena for this game, and I must say that amidst the deafening chants of ‘Thank you, Nico’ emerging every time Luka hit a shot, what I noticed most is that Luka looks as composed as he ever has. Luka was in rhythm with LeBron and Austin Reaves, often finding them open by creating space off the Mavericks' double team — something the Mavs consistently did throughout the game. I definitely noticed a difference in his style of play to how I perceived it while he was with the Mavericks. There is much less of an obligation for him to touch the ball every possession; not only does this keep defences guessing, but it allows for his time on the ball to be significantly more impactful. I am curious just how much of a difference was made by watching the game live, and while I don’t believe it is negligible, Luka’s performance and his first few games on the Lakers seem to be reshaping a big portion of his game for the better.

If Anthony Davis wasn’t injured, there would be a much different conversation as to the strength of both teams. However, trading Luka should not have been a decision the Mavs ever explored. The reality of the situation is that Anthony Davis has been extremely injury-prone throughout his career; the Mavericks knew what they were getting, and it bit them back instantly.

In seven games with the Lakers, Luka has averaged 21 points, 9 rebounds and 6 assists. However, the current concern is his lacklustre shooting, averaging a career-low 37.3% from the field and 24.1% from 3-point range. Luka has been fantastic for the Lakers since the trade, and in his past four games has had a triple-double, two double-doubles, and two 30+ point games. It feels as though Luka is beginning to hit his stride with the team as he becomes more comfortable, and the Lakers' playoff potential as a result is skyrocketing.

Detroit breaks a 10-year hiatus

This week, the Detroit Pistons reached a seven-game winning streak, the first for the team since the 2014-15 season. This team is amongst their best seasons in recent memory, and it comes off the back of Cade Cunningham. The 1st overall pick in the 2022 NBA draft is averaging 25/6/9 and has his team in fantastic shape. His maturity and growth as a leader this season — especially amid injury to key players such as Jaden Ivey, and the burden of responding to the embarrassment of last season — has been genuinely inspirational.

A team who last year went 2/28, as well as winless in the month of November, ending the season with an astonishing 14-68 in dead last place, just to turn around and hit 6th place with a 32-26 record and a real shot in the playoffs is remarkable. It is one of the greatest two-season recoveries in NBA history, and this team will be studied by struggling teams in the future.

Detroit extended this win streak to eight with an impressive 20-point win over the 2-seed Celtics, yet the Nuggets ended the streak at eight with a 134-119 victory on Friday. Nevertheless, the Pistons should be extremely excited by this recent streak of exceptional basketball and undoubtedly have their eyes fixed on a solid playoff run.

Joel Embiid shut down for the rest of the season

This past Friday, the Philadelphia 76ers announced that former MVP Joel Embiid will be shut down for the remainder of the season due to growing concerns with his left knee injury. The 2022-23 MVP has been struggling with the injury all season; it was what sidelined him for the first few games of the season and has sidelined him repeatedly throughout. This move likely marks the end of a significantly disappointing season for the 76ers, currently stuck in 12th place with a 20-38 record. The play-in and even the playoffs are still makeable for the team. However, they’ll now have to do it shorthanded. Tyrese Maxey will be the go-to guy going forward and perhaps has been already, averaging 27/6 and having matured greatly over the course of this season, becoming a genuinely impactful locker room presence. Meanwhile, Paul George is starting to find some better form, averaging 15/4/3 over his last 10 games. However, that is where the value halts.

With the focus on next season, the 76ers are a boom-or-bust team. They are in deadly cap trouble, have an ageing, overpaid vet in Paul George, an injury-prone and declining star in Joel Embiid, and a young star who they should give the team to in Tyrese Maxey but likely won't because of the presence of Embiid. This team could be extremely dangerous if they work out some concerns, such as locker room dissatisfaction and an unwillingness to compete. However, for now, these problems appear too impactful to see a clear resolution.

Conclave’s late SAG/BAFTA surge has revived the race against Anora’s strong PGA, DGA and WGA combo. Scroll for a thorough breakdown but all things considered, this should be Anora’s to lose.

Films are ranked by predicted likelihood to win and listed with their precursor nominations/wins.

I’ll breakdown everything below but to sum up why Anora is so strong:

• The guilds are king and Anora’s package is extremely strong despite the SAG loss. Only 8 films have won PGA, DGA and WGA before with Brokeback Mountain being the sole eventual Oscar loser.

• The precedents for Conclave to win Best Picture are either old and won for more infamous reasons (Crash, Shakespeare in Love) or the race was much more fractured (Spotlight).

  • Parasite is the only comparison that makes much sense statistically. It’s possible, but the passion that film had built felt much stronger than for Conclave - critically, Parasite was undeniably the best of its year.

  • The true best stats comparison for Conclave is Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - SAG and BAFTA wins without a Director nom. Even then, Conclave isn’t competitive in any acting categories.

• Moving away from stats, it’s very possible Conclave’s SAG win was more them rewarding a true ensemble movie than a lack of passion for Anora.

• If a movie like Conclave is winning Best Picture, there’s no reason it should’ve lost PGA on a preferential ballot.

  • The BAFTA also win doesn’t mean much to me - BAFTA have chosen a different winner to the Oscars in eight of the last ten years.

• Finally, vibes - I just think Anora is the much more lovable film.

What do the stats say?

Every Best Picture winner has won at least one of the four major guilds (PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG). PGA and SAG are arguably the most important as PGA is done with a preferential ballot - just like the Oscars, and SAG represents the guild with the most members in the Academy.

Following the guilds, this leaves us with Anora (who won awards at the first three) and Conclave (SAG winner; was ineligible at WGA though it may be safe to assume it would’ve won Adapted Screenplay over Nickel Boys).

It’s also worth noting that Anora won the Critics Choice Award while Conclave won the BAFTA (industry award; Oscar voter overlap). Here are some stats comparing each film’s precursor package:

• Focusing on the guilds, films that won PGA and DGA but lost SAG still go on to win the Oscar 10 out of 14 times, with the eventual losers having been:

  • 1917 (2020)

  • La La Land (2017)

  • Brokeback Mountain (2006)

  • Saving Private Ryan (1999)

• Extending this to films that won PGA, DGA, and WGA but lost SAG, 7 out of 8 films go on to win the Oscar with Brokeback Mountain being the only film to lose.

So is there hope for Conclave?

Those stats certainly paint a grim picture of Conclave’s position. It’s true chances probably lie somewhere in between those 1/8 (13%) and 4/14 (29%) numbers.

The case for Conclave is that it’s got the momentum now (although who’s to say when the tides turned relative to the voting window) and the SAG win probably means its love at the BAFTA maybe isn’t just a Euro voter thing.

The list of films to win SAG but lose PGA is responsible for many of the Oscars’ most infamous upsets… a potential argument that Conclave could win too.

• Parasite (2020) - won Best Picture

• Spotlight (2016) - won Best Picture

• Little Miss Sunshine (2007)

• Crash (2006) - won Best Picture

• Gosford Park (2002)

• Shakespeare in Love (1999) - won Best Picture

• L.A. Confidential (1998)

• Pulp Fiction (1995)

Shakespeare in Love is of particular interest as it’s the only one to also win the BAFTA, just like Conclave has. Working against Conclave though is that all four of these BP-winning films listed also had their director nominated.

If we focus on the BAFTA win instead, films that won SAG and BAFTA have an impressive 13/15 hit rate at the Oscars… the only issue is that 12 of those 13 also won the PGA, unlike Conclave. The three films which won SAG and BAFTA but lost PGA are:

• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2018) - lost Best Picture to The Shape of Water

  • SAG, BAFTA but no director nomination - this is the Conclave comp that makes the most sense to me.

• Shakespeare in Love (1999) - won Best Picture

• The Full Monty (1998) - lost Best Picture to Titanic

So if Conclave is to win Best Picture, its path might most resemble Shakespeare in Love. Here’s a closer look at how the 1999 race unfolded…

Case Study: 1999 - Shakespeare in Love vs Saving Private Ryan

I’ll go through the events but to put it simply, a film as legendary as Saving Private Ryan doesn’t lose Best Picture because fewer people liked it, it loses because it was out-campaigned.

It’s 1999 and awards campaigning is changing rapidly. After winning Best Picture two years prior with The English Patient, Harvey Weinstein’s aggressive campaigning is shifting a once (relatively) meritocratic system into something more closely resembling political campaigns. The Shakespeare in Love campaign spent more than $5 million, over double any other campaign from that year.

Weinstein joins Shakespeare in Love as a producer, his second producing credit after Pulp Fiction as he looks to win an Oscar for himself. Our two main contenders don’t miss a nomination with Saving Private Ryan taking PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice while Shakespeare in Love takes WGA, BAFTA and SAG… sounds pretty familiar.

In the end, the Oscars showered Shakespeare in Love with seven Oscars including Best Picture.

Shakespeare in Love being Conclave’s closest statistical comp does not fill me with optimism - we’re talking about 25 years ago and a win that’s more because of a campaigning discrepancy than anything (NEON has shown they are very competent campaigners - Anora does not suffer in that respect). Let’s go back to the Brokeback Mountain stat to see what happened then.

Case Study: 2006 - Crash vs Brokeback Mountain

Potentially a better comparison for Conclave’s position is Crash. Yes, Conclave had the BAFTA but I actually think its screenplay strength (hypothetical WGA win) is probably more important than its BAFTA win - as mentioned before, BAFTA has chosen a different winner to the Oscars in 8 out of the last 10 years.

Weirdly enough (although perhaps a pattern amongst upsets in this era), Crash is also seen as one of the most controversial Best Picture wins - potentially the worst. Some stats:

• Brokeback Mountain won the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, WGA, and BAFTA as precursors against Crash’s WGA and SAG.

• As mentioned before, Brokeback Mountain remains (for now) the only film to win PGA, DGA, and WGA but lose Best Picture.

• Crash is one of only two Best Picture winners which wasn’t even nominated at the Golden Globes.

I think given all of that, you’d be willfully ignorant to think the subject matter of Brokeback Mountain didn’t have an impact on this awards season; the issue is only made worse by Crash’s “exploration” of race which is usually described as mixed at best and quite destructive at worst.

Moving into more recent memory, Spotlight sticks out as a potential comparison but its PGA and DGA losses were split between two different films (The Big Short and The Revenant respectively). Anora took both.

That leaves us with one last case study, which in contrast to these two is instead one of the Academy’s most progressive moments in history.

Case Study: 2019 - Parasite vs 1917

In 2019, 1917 never felt like a strong frontrunner but was slowly extending its lead after racking up the PGA, DGA, and BAFTA. Following a big SAG win though, people could feel the momentum shifting towards Parasite, just like Crash. This is what Conclave needs to hope is happening.

It is potentially the only recent and plausible example of what Conclave is trying to do and honestly, it could make a fair amount of sense for it to happen again. Anora doesn’t even have the BAFTA and its WGA is against much weaker competition. I’d say the strongest argument against it here is that Bong Joon-Ho was competitive in Director whereas Berger isn’t even nominated. But be wary of using that logic too much - if nominations were today, the lineup could look very different.

Closing thoughts

I think if you want to predict Conclave, Parasite gives you the precedent to do it. It has the momentum and it has the win-package - I feel better about Conclave winning Screenplay and Editing than I do any of Anora’s other awards. You’d be calling an upset, but one that’s certainly drawing live.

For me though, the guild support is just too much to bet against with Anora. Conclave swept Ensemble prizes everywhere this awards season and it doesn’t shock me that it won SAG. I’d be a lot more worried if it was competitive in any acting categories. And as for the BAFTA, it’s been so uncorrelated recently; plus Conclave’s a British film.

Critics Choice showed Anora can win Picture alone, it won the PGA, and if nothing else, I’m banking that it’s simply the most loved film. I think the real question is: how many other awards can Anora win?

Best Director

The Academy might like The Brutalist more than the guilds but given Anora’s strength, the all-important DGA win and Baker’s more compelling career narrative, it makes a Picture/Director split harder to see.

Directors are ranked by predicted likelihood to win and listed with their precursor nominations/wins.

The strongest indicator that Baker should be safe here is that only three directors have ever won Best Director after losing the DGA and with their film not winning Best Picture:

• Steven Soderbergh for Traffic (2001)

  • Received two nominations for Best Director in 2001 (also for Erin Brockovich).

  • Double noms were for his 8th and 9th film, 12 years after receiving his first nomination.

  • Traffic won Screenplay and Editing; The Brutalist isn’t competitive for either.

• Roman Polanski for The Pianist (2003)

  • Was Polanski’s 3rd Best Director nomination.

  • Was Polanski’s 17th film, following decades of celebrated work including Tess, Chinatown, and Rosemary’s Baby. All of which earned him Oscar nominations.

  • Coincidentally though (or not?), was also the film which Adrien Brody won his first Best Actor Oscar for, with zero precursors.

  • The Pianist was a Screenplay winner too which The Brutalist isn’t really competitive for.

• Ang Lee for Life of Pi (2013)

  • DGA winner (Ben Affleck for Hugo) wasn’t nominated at Oscars.

  • Was Lee’s 13th film, and his 6th film which he received Oscar nominations for.

  • Was Lee’s 3rd Best Director nomination after Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Brokeback Mountain.

    • Previous winner for Best Director for Brokeback Mountain (after also winning the DGA).

      • As discussed in the Best Picture breakdown, many view it as a mistake that Brokeback Mountain lost Best Picture so perhaps an element of making it up to Lee with this award too.

Overall the point here is that to win Director while losing DGA and Best Picture, you need to be a serious industry veteran, potentially also with a compelling personal narrative to need the Director win.

So even after Corbet’s BAFTA win, the DGA loss was such a brutal (no pun intended) blow to his chances. Corbet on only his 3rd film just doesn't fit the mold of the examples above.

It would be extremely bizarre for DGA to deviate for no reason this year. Voters likely view Baker as a celebrated voice and an auteur in his own way. To me, it’s as simple as a filmmaker whose time has come to be recognized, and I think the Academy will give him his flowers.

So while on paper the race could appear close (and I’m not saying Corbet can’t win), history would say it’s very, very ballsy to bet against Baker. It only makes any sense if you think Anora is losing Best Picture and even then, Corbet/The Brutalist might not be strong enough anyway.

In a devastating blow not just for Spurs fans, but for NBA fans as a whole, Victor Wembanyama—one of the most dominant, exciting, and unstoppable players in the league—has been ruled out for the rest of the season with Deep Vein Thrombosis in his right shoulder. Unfortunately for the Spurs, this effectively ends their season. Sitting in 12th place with a record of 24-30, four games behind the 10-seed Sacramento Kings, they have already lost their coach for medical recovery earlier in the season and now their young All-Star. While it’s possible that the trade for De'Aaron Fox could help the Spurs make the play-in, there will be an irreplaceable on-court presence missing from a man who provides 24/11/4/4 on any given night.

The silver lining for Wemby and the Spurs is that interim head coach Mitch Johnson noted this week that his long-term health likely won’t be affected by this unfortunate setback:

“The medical experts and the people that are smarter than everybody in the room have said and confirm that he'll be done this year, and there is no concern for Victor's long-term health, personally, or anything related to his basketball activities.”

This is likely a really disappointing end to the first season of Spurs relevance in a significant time. However, if the Spurs miss the playoffs, they will likely end up with a very solid draft pick. This could be paired with an offseason signing from the growing list of possible free agents and trade targets, potentially positioning the Spurs in the middle of the pack next season.

Mark Williams Affirms Physical Readiness

This season's trade deadline was remarkable, and amidst the unexpected twists and turns, one of the most interesting events was the Lakers trading for—and subsequently rescinding—a trade for Mark Williams. The trade, which initially aimed to send Williams to the Lakers in exchange for Dalton Knecht, Cam Reddish, and picks, was orchestrated as an attempt to replace Anthony Davis, who days earlier had been sent to Dallas for Luka Dončić in the biggest move of the offseason.

However, shortly after the trade deadline, the Lakers organisation announced that the Williams trade had been rescinded due to him failing the physical test.

As of now, Mark Williams' agent Jeff Schwartz has released a statement disputing the decision. Schwartz stated:

“The overwhelming sentiment, after conferring with multiple nationally recognised doctors, is that the Los Angeles Lakers should not have failed Mark Williams on his physical,” and that “Mark was ready and able to play for them and should have been given that opportunity.”

The Lakers have refused to comment.

Mark Williams also shared his own perspective on the issue, stating:

“I don't think it was solely because of my physical. I felt like I could have contributed to them, but obviously they had second thoughts.”

The Lakers reserved the right to fail Williams’ physical and rescind the trade for any reason they wished. However, it begs the question of why they would do this—why they would cause locker room dissatisfaction by sending two players away only to bring them back days later—if it wasn’t legitimate.

There is no change that can come from this; the Lakers cannot rerun the physical and bring Williams onto the team, nor can Williams and Schwartz take any legitimate action.

Williams took to Instagram to voice his frustration this past week, posting a series of images with the caption:

“There’s always peace when you know the truth.”

Bobby Portis Banned for 25 Games

Milwaukee Bucks forward Bobby Portis has been suspended by the NBA for 25 games for violating the banned substance policy.

Portis tested positive for the drug tramadol, a severe pain medication he was using for inflammation in his elbow. Both Portis and his representative, Mark Bartelstein, claim that it was an honest mistake, and that Portis had incidentally used tramadol instead of toradol, an approved substance by the NBA.

Portis currently has no plans to appeal the suspension. However, it is a significant loss for the Bucks and once again emphasises the NBA’s strictness regarding banned substances.

Doc Rivers has also voiced his frustration with the decision, stating:

“Rules are rules, I get it, but there are also human circumstances and common sense to me. To me, that's what we have to try to figure out how to change this a little bit. Because when it's clear that when names are that close, and it's clear, you can tell now from the blood samples that was the only time ever, that you would think we could do something less severe.”

This ban will sideline Portis for the remainder of the regular season and the beginning of the playoffs.

Who’s winning Best Actress?

A very close race that could truly go either way and typically in those, the stronger movie’s performance is safest. Moore’s role was tailor-made for SAG voters and Madison’s BAFTA win despite Anora losing Picture, Director and Screenplay gives her just enough strength in my eyes if Anora is to take those at the Oscars. If anyone has the narrative to just win anyway, it's Moore, but I feel like that’s betting on the outlier, not the norm.

Prediction: Mikey Madison, Anora

The case for Demi Moore

• Madison’s BAFTA win could be explained by the Brits not being as receptive to Moore’s career narrative as the Oscars will be. Moore is an American actress and the voters who feel compelled to vote for her on the grounds of her career are far more likely to be in Hollywood than overseas. It’s possible to discount the BAFTA loss as just a blip for reasons that aren’t as relevant at the Oscars.

• GG, CC, and SAG is a very strong combo. Moore got to give two televised speeches before voting began and then won SAG which arguably showed where things stood during Oscar voting.

  • Statistically, lead performances which won this combo but lost BAFTA are still 6/9 at the Oscars - 3/4 in Actor, 3/5 in Actress.

    • 1998: Jack Nicholson (As Good as It Gets) against Robert Carlyle (The Full Monty) – Won Oscar

    • 2004: Charlize Theron (Monster) against Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake) - Won Oscar

    • 2005: Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby) against Scarlett Johansson (Lost in Translation) - Won Oscar

    • 2008: Julie Christie (Away from Her) against Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose) - Lost Oscar

    • 2010: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side) against Carey Mulligan (An Education) - Won Oscar

    • 2010: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) against Colin Firth (A Single Man) – Won Oscar

    • 2014: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) against Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) – Won Oscar

    • 2019: Glenn Close (The Wife) against Olivia Colman (The Favourite) – Lost Oscar

    • 2021: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) against Anthony Hopkins (The Father) - Lost Oscar

  • Even though most cases are older, it’s hard to see why Madison would be able to pull off a similar upset. A Madison win will need Anora to have a lot of passion at the Oscars - more than any precursor so far. It needs to be winning Picture convincingly (somewhat tough to believe after SAG loss).

    • The only thing to be wary of with this stat is that 5/6 of the BAFTA winners who went on to lose the Oscar are from the UK - Madison is not.

• The Brendan Fraser win over Austin Butler is a very similar race where the career “popcorn actor” comeback narrative is against the soft-spoken, newcomer (coincidentally Butler and Madison were also both in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood). Despite Fraser being in the film not nominated for Best Picture, he still was able to win the Oscar.

• Recently, each of the last three Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar winners also won a lead acting category. The Substance is a lock to win that this year.

• If you expect Brody to win, going 2/4 with SAG is not usually a smart idea. SAG has only gone 2/4 with the Oscars three times since 1995.

• Personality-wise, most would say Moore is more charismatic than Madison and she’s delivered great speeches at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. Voters may genuinely feel this is their last chance to reward her and in a close race this may secure the last necessary votes.

• Moore is also obviously far more connected in Hollywood than Madison - if this is about who has friends there to vote for them, then Moore has the advantage.

The case for Mikey Madison

• Even if Madison only has the BAFTA, that is definitely the precursor you’d want. Globes and Critics Choice are important but mostly for the speeches - you need SAG or BAFTA. In the last 10 years, there have been 7 SAG/BAFTA splits (excluding the Joanna Scanlan BAFTA win without an Oscar nom):

  • 2017 – Best Actor:

    • SAG: Denzel Washington (Fences)

    • BAFTA: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

    • Oscar: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

  • 2019 – Best Actress:

    • SAG: Glenn Close (The Wife)

    • BAFTA: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)

    • Oscar: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)

  • 2021 – Best Actor:

    • SAG: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

    • BAFTA: Anthony Hopkins (The Father)

    • Oscar: Anthony Hopkins (The Father)

  • 2021 – Best Actress:

    • SAG: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

    • BAFTA: Frances McDormand (Nomadland)

    • Oscar: Frances McDormand (Nomadland)

  • 2023 – Best Actor:

    • SAG: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

    • BAFTA: Austin Butler (Elvis)

    • Oscar: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

  • 2023 – Best Actress:

    • SAG: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

    • BAFTA: Cate Blanchett (Tár)

    • Oscar: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

  • 2024 – Best Actress:

    • SAG: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

    • BAFTA: Emma Stone (Poor Things)

    • Oscar: Emma Stone (Poor Things)

  • 5 out of 7 of these races went to the BAFTA winner but more importantly, besides The Whale, every race went to the performance in the film they liked more. And even The Whale you could argue was more liked by the time winners were being voted on - it won 2 Oscars to Elvis’ 0. This year it isn’t debatable who’s in the bigger film.

• While her BAFTA win could be discounted as discussed with Moore, you could also view Madison winning BAFTA as a very big sign of strength.

  • The BAFTAs probably like The Substance a similar amount as the Oscars - both nominated Fargeat, did not nominate Qualley, and it’s likely somewhere around 6th-8th in terms of Best Picture (The Substance made BAFTA top 10 but not top 5).

  • Anora is expected to be liked more at the Oscars than the BAFTAs. As outlined above it’s the clear favourite for Picture and Director - neither of which it won at the BAFTAs.

  • Despite this, Madison was still able to win the BAFTA. It makes a lot of sense that if she could win there without Anora taking any other major awards, then she should be coming along too at the Oscars.

• Regarding the SAG loss though, I think it was predictable that SAG (the actors guild) went with Moore - she’s playing a fading actress trying to reclaim her youth and fame in Hollywood.

  • Whether Oscar-correlative or not, SAG has consistently shown it will take the narrative if given one. Yeoh and Gladstone are good examples the last two years. It would’ve been really surprising to see Madison take this - Moore winning here shouldn’t change your mind.

    • But Anora losing Ensemble could. As mentioned before, I see Conclave’s SAG win as more about rewarding the best ensemble of performances than any lack of passion for Anora. Perhaps I’m selling myself a bit of a story here though; predicting Madison definitely is predicated on there being broad support for her film.

• While yes Moore’s combo is 6/9 when we’ve seen this race play out before (CC, GG, and SAG vs. BAFTA), 8/9 of the BAFTA-winners were British.

  • 5/6 people who lost against Moore’s combo were British - it’s much more powerful to win BAFTA as an American.

• Since 1995, in races without a sweeper, if a lead actress in the eventual Best Picture winner had won a precursor, they have always gone on to win the Oscar.

  • In Best Actor though, there are three examples where a Best Picture lead with a precursor went on to lose the Oscar:

    • 2002: Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind lost to Denzel Washington, Training Day

    • 2014: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave lost to Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

    • 2015: Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) lost to Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

    • With Crowe’s loss as more for other reasons not relevant to Madison (look up Russell Crowe 2002 BAFTAs), Ejiofor is really the only example of a Best Picture lead with the BAFTA who lost the Oscar. And even then as mentioned before, he’s British where Madison isn’t.

  • In either category, there is only one example of a Best Picture lead who won BAFTA but lost SAG (Frances McDormand, Nomadland - Won Oscar).

• Many forget the Academy is much more kind to younger women as opposed to younger men. They are more willing to give Best Actress to performers under 30 than Best Actor.

  • Since 1995, seven Best Actress winners were under 30 as opposed to only Adrien Brody for Best Actor - less than a month before his 30th birthday.

  • In races without a sweeper since 1995, the youngest performer who won at least one precursor award goes on to win the Oscar in:

    • 8 out of 18 years in Best Actor (44%)

    • 11 out of 16 years in Best Actress (69%)

  • This is the key difference when comparing this race to Fraser vs Butler.

• Very subjective but voters who care about interviews and other press events could find Madison’s quiet and soft-spoken demeanor compared to her character as very impressive in how she crafted this performance.

• While The Substance secured its nominations, the Academy has exhibited a strong genre bias historically against horror films. Taking a step back from this year’s race, Moore’s win would be pretty far removed from most of the Best Actress winners.

• Lastly, while sort of being a repeat of the Best Picture performances point - if Anora is winning Best Picture, then why wouldn’t Anora herself win too?

The case for Fernanda Torres?

I’ll be more brief here because the case for Torres is more based on vibes.

The case for Torres is that she won the Globe, so she got to give a speech, and we’ve actually never seen her compete in the same category as Moore or Madison at a precursor yet! A total wild card.

In Torres’ case, I think you can overlook the fact that she’d be the first actress to win the Oscar without even being nominated at SAG and BAFTA because of the unique campaign I’m Still Here has had. They’ve been pushing it hard - there’s definitely passion for it out there and if enough voters were discovering it during voting, then in theory it could have a shot.

For me, it’s just too gutsy to guess this. It’s like those who thought Sandra Huller could win last year by the other two splitting votes - I guess it’s possible but it feels remote enough as a possibility that I can’t predict it.

Closing thoughts

It’s a very tough race to call, but with her film’s strength, the BAFTA win, and the specific circumstances of that BAFTA win - I’m going with Madison.

Looking at the betting odds, I think oddsmakers are overestimating Moore - PolyMarket has her at 62% to Madison's 31% as of writing. Some money to be made if you're into that kind of thing…

Be sure to tune into the Oscars on Sunday night US time or Monday morning AUS time!

The biggest story of the week was the debut of Luka Dončić in his new Lakers colours. Going up against the struggling Utah Jazz, Dončić looked solid with 14/4/5 in only 24 minutes. He had a couple of great plays, including a full-court heave to LeBron for the easy layup and a classic step-back three, which was undoubtedly a welcome sight for Lakers fans. LeBron James had 24 points in the contest, as well as Austin Reaves with 22 and Rui Hachimura with 21. Despite the loss to the Jazz two nights later, Dončić had 16/4/4 in 23 minutes. Luka seems to be rapidly gaining comfort in LA; however, a loss to the Jazz is directly emblematic of the Lakers' new biggest enemy—defensive ineptitude.

The Lakers are currently the 5th seed in the West with a 32-20 record, and since the trade, they are 5-1. Meanwhile, in Dallas, the Mavericks have caught the injury bug, with Anthony Davis out for several weeks with an abductor strain and Daniel Gafford out for at least two weeks with a knee issue. The Mavericks are 4-3 since the trade, and while fans are still reeling, Kyrie has comfortably put the team on his back and is keeping their playoff hopes alive.

The Warriors Find New Life

Following the trade for Jimmy Butler, the expectation for the Golden State Warriors was explosive offence and a reinvigorated passion and form for the game. Now, following the first week of Bay Area Butler, the Warriors are 3-1, including a win over the 4-seed Rockets. Butler has been spectacular in his first four games, averaging 21/6/6 on 40% shooting. Months ago, he mentioned that he wanted to get back his joy for basketball—well, it seems that may have happened alongside Stephen Curry.

The Warriors are currently tied with the Kings for 9th and 10th place in the West with a 28-27 record, and they have a comfortable schedule for the next two weeks. The important thing for the Warriors is not to rush any major building steps. There are going to be teething issues with a star player in a new place, and the team needs to be patient, allowing Butler and Curry to establish their own rhythm. The Warriors could sneak into playoff seeding within the next few weeks, and if they do, they’ll likely remain there and continue to climb the rankings.

All-Star Weekend Reaction

This past week saw the debut of the brand-new All-Star Weekend, and it was almost a complete disaster. I empathise with the league, as the first attempt at a new format is never likely to be a complete success, but this was worse than anyone might have imagined. I actually thought the idea was solid—four teams, three compiled of NBA All-Stars, then one other Rising Stars team facing off in a round-robin tournament. Quick, energetic matches that don’t take too much time or exhaust players. However, defence, as per usual, was completely non-existent, so a game that is first to 40 points takes only 5-10 minutes.

Another major issue was the blatant force of advertising. Ernie Johnson even acknowledged this in the post-game press conference, remarking, “I need to keep our sponsors happy,” before launching into a 30-second ad read for KIA. Another extreme failure was the tribute to Inside the NBA—a touching concept in theory, yet it lasted about 15-20 minutes and was started halfway through the game.

The key word for this All-Star Weekend is messy. While Mac McClung and Stephon Castle did their best to keep us all entertained, the glaring lack of interest from every other party completely shattered the illusion. I believe the NBA All-Star Weekend should just go back to East vs West, with players wearing their own jerseys, and integrate elements from the 2020 All-Star Weekend, where the winner of each quarter donates funds to a charity of their choice.

The new format was practically a complete failure, and I would be very surprised if we return to the same structure next season.

The Warriors Got Their All-Star

In an appearance on The Pat McAfee Show this past week, Shams Charania mentioned that the Warriors were calling about “legitimately every All-Star—just name the All-Star player, and the Warriors have probably called them.” Well, they finally got their target. Jimmy Butler has been traded to the Warriors in a three-team deal that significantly changes their lineup.

The details of this wild three-team trade are as follows:

• The Miami Heat receive: Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson, Davion Mitchell (from the Toronto Raptors), and a protected first-round pick from the Warriors.

• The Detroit Pistons receive: Lindy Waters III, Josh Richardson, and Dennis Schröder (who, in the space of four days, has been a member of the Warriors, Heat, Jazz, and now Pistons).

• The Golden State Warriors receive: Jimmy Butler.

In addition to this, the Warriors immediately signed Butler to a two-year extension worth $121 million—a value higher than his player option with the Heat and significantly higher than his estimated value during the Butler/Riley saga. The Warriors are yet another team that, with this trade, have committed to a win-now attitude. As we near the end of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler’s Hall of Fame careers, the Warriors are hoping Butler will be the piece that helps them make one last championship run.

However, the Warriors have a lot of work to do to get back into realistic Finals contention. Currently in 11th place with a 25-26 record, they need a second-half resurgence to remain relevant. More importantly, with a significant adjustment to their lineup, they cannot afford to slip during this transitional period while Butler settles in—if they do, they may find it difficult to catch up.

Ultimately, should the Warriors make the playoffs, it is always important to remember that Jimmy Butler and Stephen Curry are not the players you want to face.

Lakers-Hornets Failed Trade

Right before the trade deadline, the Lakers’ rookie Dalton Knecht was traded to the Hornets alongside Cam Reddish and a future first-round pick in exchange for Mark Williams, a solid defender averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds.

This would have been a good move for the Lakers, as they need an interior defender. While nobody was going to fill the role of Anthony Davis, Williams would have been a solid pickup. However, this past Saturday, the Lakers announced that the trade had been rescinded due to the seven-footer failing his physical. A physical is standard practice before a player is signed to a new team, consisting of a series of fitness and medical tests to evaluate a player’s health, physical condition, and readiness for gameplay.

While Williams has played in only 85 out of a possible 212 games through his first two and a half seasons with the Hornets, the Lakers were confident in his medicals when the trade was agreed upon. The Lakers did not specifically announce which parts of the physical were concerning, though they did note that there were multiple, and that his back (which had been a major concern) was not one of them.

For Knecht, Reddish, and Williams, it certainly makes for an awkward trip back to the locker room, and it would be surprising if these players are not dealt in the off-season. It is possible that Knecht stays in LA, but the other two will likely be traded or leave in free agency.

This result is tough for both teams. After a genuinely promising start to the season, the Hornets have slipped to 13-36, with no clear direction. I liked their move to put value in young players and picks for the future; however, they also traded Cody Martin, Vasilije Micić, and a 2026 second-round pick for Jusuf Nurkić. If both trades had gone through, this would have been a good strategy, but now the Hornets double up on centres and lose two shooters.

Meanwhile, for the Lakers, defence is an incredible concern. Luka Dončić is set to make his debut any day now, and we will finally get to see this new starting five, which is focused on dominating teams offensively—simply outscoring opponents without a necessary reliance on defence. However, with no replacement for Anthony Davis, just how necessary will this reliance become? The Lakers remain my winners of the trade deadline; while they have a real defensive concern, they have won their last four games—all of which were without AD.

Brandon Ingram to the Toronto Raptors

The Pelicans thought this season could be their chance to make a splash. After acquiring Dejounte Murray in the off-season, the combination of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum was supposed to make them a playoff team. Now, 15 weeks into the regular season, the Pelicans are 15th in the West with a 12-39 record. CJ McCollum has been fine, Zion has played just 15 games, Dejounte Murray has unfortunately been ruled out for the rest of the season with a torn Achilles, and Brandon Ingram has been traded to the Raptors. The final nail in the coffin for the Pelicans’ season.

This is a good move for the Raptors, as their quasi-big three was likely not enough to get them into the play-in picture. However, with no clear timeline for Ingram’s return, this move could end up harming the Raptors in the long run. If the goal is to end the rebuild early and make a playoff push, they won’t be able to do it without Ingram. If they have to wait until next season, they may sacrifice their chances at a high draft pick by committing to an unsuccessful play-in push now.

Meanwhile, for the Pelicans, they neither gain nor lose much from this trade, receiving Bruce Brown Jr., Kelly Olynyk, and picks. The most interesting component is what they will do with those picks. The Pelicans’ season ended before it even began, so I understand the benefit of trading an aging, unreliable Brandon Ingram while they still could. The Pelicans could be solid next season, perhaps with an off-season move or two, but for now, they are completely on the back burner.

Hawks and Clippers with a Win-Win

The Atlanta Hawks and the Los Angeles Clippers are involved in one of the only genuine win-win trades of this deadline. The Hawks are sending Bogdan Bogdanović and three second-round picks to the Clippers in exchange for Terance Mann and Bones Hyland. I really like this move for both teams. Bogdanović is a great player who can easily lead his team in scoring on any given night, and while he has had an off year this season, Terance Mann is a similar case—we all remember his 39-point shocker against the Jazz, which sent the Clippers to the Western Conference Finals in 2021. Mann is also a decent defender, and paired with Bones Hyland’s ability to light it up from deep, the Hawks gained both an offensive and defensive boost with this trade.

Both of these teams have looked solid this year; my concern is a lack of trust in either to get over the hump. However, the Hawks have beaten both the Cavs and the Celtics twice. While regular-season basketball is obviously a different game, it’s extremely promising for Hawks fans to see them rise to the challenge and not shrink under the bright lights.

Saturday, 1 February, the NBA world was shaken by one of the most insane trades in NBA history: the Los Angeles Lakers are sending Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a 2029 first-round pick to the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for Luka Dončić, Maxi Kleber, and Markieff Morris, with the Jazz involved for Jalen Hood-Schifino, the Clippers’ and Mavericks’ 2025 second-round picks.

Two players who were arguably considered untouchable are now involved in a trade that will drastically change the scope of the league—not just for these two teams, but for the nature of NBA trades themselves. Blockbuster trades seemed to be a thing of the past, at least trades of this scale, as they have been dormant for the past several seasons. Now, with the trade deadline coming up next week, I expect teams to be inspired and at least try for some drastic change. De’Aaron Fox is likely on the move, maybe Zion; Butler is a fascinating situation, and considering the nature of this trade—where LeBron was left completely in the dark until finding out at a family dinner—he could be on the move as well.

As for who won the trade, it is difficult to say. However, on paper, it appears unwise to trade a 25-year-old superstar who took his team to the Finals less than one year ago for a 31-year-old who, granted, is playing some of the best basketball of his career, but has been extremely prone to injury and whose number of seasons left in the league is unknown.

This trade is absolutely baffling. The Mavericks are completely committed to a win-now attitude, as their ‘big three’ of Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, and now Anthony Davis are all into their 30s. This lineup’s shelf life in the league is not considerably substantial.

As for the Lakers, the combination of LeBron James and Luka Dončić—provided the Lakers don’t move on from James—could either be sensational or a complete miscue. Dončić is still out with injury yet was expected to return before the All-Star Game. This time on the bench may actually be the best case for Los Angeles, giving Luka a chance to find his footing, gain an understanding of the team chemistry, and adjust to his newfound role alongside the greatest of all time.

This is an unbelievable way to start deadline week—let’s hope the excitement doesn’t stop here.

All-Star Reserves Announced

This past week saw the announcement of the 2024–2025 All-Star Reserves, following the announcement of the starters last week.

Coming off the bench in the West are Anthony Edwards, James Harden, Anthony Davis, Jaren Jackson Jr., and three players making their first career All-Star Game in Jalen Williams, Alperen Şengün, and Victor Wembanyama.

Meanwhile, off the bench for the East are Jaylen Brown, Pascal Siakam, Damian Lillard, Darius Garland, and three first-timers of their own in Evan Mobley, Tyler Herro, and Cade Cunningham.

Every season there are All-Star snubs, and every season certain players are going to be disappointed. This year, the big names are Domantas Sabonis, Trae Young, Tyrese Maxey, LaMelo Ball, Devin Booker, and Norman Powell. It is physically impossible for every player to receive the attention they deserve, and it is even more difficult for players to experience the All-Star Game with the new round-robin tournament-style system.

This year’s All-Star Game is important for the NBA, and while fans are never completely pleased with the results of the teams, this season feels slightly more unappreciated. Perhaps it is a pre-established negativity towards the new format the league is pushing. However, if things go well for the weekend, this could be the system in place for the foreseeable future.

Adam Silver Considers 10-Minute Quarters

Adam Silver recently remarked during an appearance on The Dan Patrick Show that “as we get more involved in global basketball, the NBA is the only league that plays 48 minutes, and I would be a fan of four 10-minute quarters.” This suggestion comes with an interest in not only increasing NBA viewership but also retaining viewership for an entire game, wherein a two-hour format is considered by Silver as “much more consistent with modern television habits.”

Silver proceeded to make comparisons to Olympic Basketball and College Basketball, both of which are 40-minute games and run under two hours, while the average NBA game has run for 2 hours and 16 minutes so far this season.

While the change to 40-minute games may improve consistent viewership, it would likely completely eliminate the possibility of NBA records ever being broken, which makes storylines significantly less interesting and eliminates the NBA’s use of their favourite word: ‘historic.’ This change would be a completely unprecedented shift in the game of basketball in both major and minor ways.

As Silver and the league continue to consider ways to make the game more captivating and to reduce the number of three-point attempts, my suggestion is to change the three-seconds-in-the-key rule to five for both offence and defence. Allowing teams two extra seconds to establish a play inside the paint—rather than early congestion, solid man-marking, and settling for a three—could have a meaningful impact.

The league is still at least a whole season away from significant change such as this, but it is becoming increasingly clear that the game is going to go through rule or format changes, perhaps drastically, sooner rather than later.

This week saw the announcement of the 2024–2025 All-Star starting team, with no big surprises in either the Eastern or Western Conference:

Eastern Conference: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, and Jalen Brunson.

Western Conference: Nikola Jokić, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

There are a few names on this list—primarily Victor Wembanyama, LaMelo Ball, and Luka Dončić—who surprised fans by being held off the starting ballot, but will certainly be a part of the reserve team.

The new format for the All-Star game will be interesting regardless of how it unfolds. Whether it is successful or a complete disaster, it is sure to draw some attention, and in this odd transition year for the NBA, maintaining viewership is a top priority. The league needs this to work, because a reversal back to the All-Star games of old would completely remove fan interest, which has been on a steady decline for the past several years.

Raptors Win 5 of Last 6

While it may seem that the Toronto Raptors have been eyeing off next season for quite some time, they still have some fight left. The Raptors have won 5 of their last 6, beating the Warriors, Celtics, Magic, and Hawks twice. These are all valuable wins, and they represent that this team, when fully healthy, could still be a threat for the play-in. The Raptors sit at 13th place in the East with a record of 13–32, yet are only 6 games back of the 10th-place Chicago Bulls (19–27).

Scottie Barnes has been excellent in these past few weeks after having a very stagnated start to the season due to injury. Barnes averages 20/8/6 and is working hard to get the Raptors back to relevant seeding. Assisting him is RJ Barrett, averaging 22/7/6, which gives the Raptors a very solid 1–2 punch.

Their biggest issue? That's where the talent ends. Sure, there’s a good night from Chris Boucher or Gradey Dick, but while Immanuel Quickley is still sidelined with no timetable for his return, the Raptors’ chances at a playoff berth are fading. Look for the Raptors to make a move towards the end of the trade deadline; it could give a good indication of their intentions for the rest of the season.

Is Shai Running Away with the MVP Race?

The NBA MVP award is a race between two people this year: the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokić. These two players are having phenomenal seasons—Shai with a league-leading 32 ppg, as well as 5 rpg and 6 apg, and Jokić with an unbelievable 30/13/10. Shai has the Thunder in a comfortable 1st place with a record of 36–8, while Nikola Jokić has the Nuggets in 4th place with 28–16. Jokić currently leads Shai in Player Efficiency Rating (PER) with 33.6 over Shai’s 30.9.

So who should win the award?

If trends continue in this direction, it is hard to see Shai not winning the award. However, this year's race feels tighter than it has in the past several years. For Jokić, this would be his 3rd consecutive MVP, and the 4th in his 10-year career. Meanwhile, for Shai, this would be his first MVP award in a career which could see multiple nods in the coming years if he continues to play at this level.

The argument for Shai is obvious: he is leading the league in points per game and is the best player on statistically the best team in the league. However, what could give Jokić a slight edge is him leading his team in points, rebounds, and assists, proving to be the sole reason for the team's record.

At this point, it is genuinely anyone’s game. If the season ended today, I would estimate Shai to be a narrow victor. However, with nearly 3 months until the end of the regular season, things can change in an instant. This will be an extremely exciting battle to watch unfold.

This past week marked a spectacular moment for the Orlando Magic, as their star forward Paolo Banchero returned after nearly 10 weeks sidelined with a torn oblique. Banchero had a spectacular first game back with 34/7/4, despite the celebration being spoiled by Giannis and the Bucks. Despite his great level of play, the Magic are 1-4 since his return, including a 29-point loss to the Bucks and a 27-point loss to the Celtics. The Magic didn’t record over 100 points in either of these games. Perhaps it was a matter of shaking off the rust and re-establishing team chemistry with a new starting five, but the concern, if this poor stretch of play continues, is that the game plan has reverted to ‘get the ball to Paolo and watch the Magic.’ Paolo’s overuse is what has caused him injury in the past, and with the way they were playing before his return, there is no need to force the offense to run through him every possession.

Sacramento Kings Win 8 of Last 10

Since firing head coach Mike Brown in Week 9, the Sacramento Kings have shown a resilience previously unknown for this group. After a somewhat average start to the season, going 13-18 and looking like another lacklustre campaign, the Kings have had a mid-season resurgence and now sit at 9th place in the West with a 21-20 record, with their star players looking connected in the way the Sacramento front office had hoped since acquiring DeMar DeRozan this offseason to join De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis.

Impressive wins over the Grizzlies, Celtics, and Rockets have this team believing in themselves. Under new head coach Doug Christie, this is the perfect start. De’Aaron Fox is having a great season, averaging 26/5/6, with Domantas Sabonis averaging 20/14/6, and DeMar DeRozan averaging 21/3/3. Looking beyond their big three, Malik Monk is having a very impressive season, averaging a career high in points, rebounds, and assists: 17/4/5. Meanwhile, Keegan Murray has been solid with 12/7.

This is a good spot for the Kings to be in, considering their past few weeks. Losing a head coach is always a tough situation for a team to bounce back from, but the Kings have done exactly that. If they can keep up this impressive level of play, they could work their way into playoff seeding, especially considering they are only two games removed from 5th place in the West.

Adam Silver ‘Correcting the Issues’ of 3pt Dominance

With 3-point shooting attempts per game at an all-time high, an unprecedented 41.4% of all shots across the entire NBA, Commissioner Adam Silver noted in a recent interview on Colin Cowherd’s program The Herd that the league is considering significant changes to attempt to rectify this issue. Silver suggested that they will review this issue from the perspective of game rules: “As stewards of the game, Joe Dumars leads our competition committee here; we will tweak it, we will correct those issues.” Adam Silver empathised with frustrated fans yet also made the valid point that the NBA is going through a transformation, specifically referencing the style of play adopted by individuals such as Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembenyama, accomplishing offensive production which “big men never did historically.”

Silver addressed a few potential rule changes yet stated that moving the 3-point line is a last resort. This is an extremely difficult task to manage—establishing a rule change that would mitigate the natural progression of the game, yet not so major that it would completely reshape the state of modern basketball. As elaborated upon by Silver, moving the 3-point line is much more than forcing a deeper 3-point attempt: “If you move the 3-point line back, you'll end up just sort of clogging up the area under the basket, and that's not such attractive basketball either.”

Silver is actively relaying to fans that he is aware of their concerns and frustrations, yet it is also important to realise that a rule change will likely have major influences on all facets of the game, regardless of whether the intention is simply to halt the volume of 3-point shots. There is no clear solution, and I believe it will likely remain unresolved, at least until the end of next season. However, it will be extremely interesting to consider possible rule changes that could limit the surge in beyond-the-arc offence.

The clear matchup of the month did not disappoint. The Oklahoma City Thunder, on a 15-game win streak, visited the Cleveland Cavaliers, now on an 11-game win streak. This matchup was the first of its kind—a historic contest which could very possibly be a preview of the 2024-2025 NBA Finals. Oklahoma were off to a hot start, but the patented Cavaliers' resilience kept them in the contest in this wire-to-wire bout. What impresses me most about this win for the Cavs is the next-man-up mentality of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, each with over 20 points.

Despite Donovan Mitchell’s lacklustre performance, posting 11/6/4 on 18.8% from the field, the Cavs found a way to get it done. Simply by looking at this box score, my biggest concern with the Thunder is all too noticeable: a distinct lack of size. Yes, Holmgren is injured, and Isaiah Hartenstein has been very solid in his new role so far this season, but otherwise, the Thunder are going to have a tough time competing with teams as big as the Cavaliers. It’s the primary reason they lost to the Bucks in the NBA Cup. If the Thunder match up against a big team, it’s going to be hard for them to win if they don’t shoot to near perfection. Their exterior defence is fantastic, but the interior is definitely their biggest concern.

Meanwhile, for the Cavaliers, this is yet another impressive win which may have been somewhat unexpected. The Cavs continue to prove themselves as a serious Finals threat. This team can win in so many ways that it is difficult for other teams to gameplan, and this matchup was a perfect example; Donovan Mitchell was severely underperforming, and they were comfortable making the adjustment and giving the keys to Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

Both of these teams are young, passionate, and nightmare matchups for potential playoff opponents in the near future.

What went wrong for the Pelicans?

Once acquiring Dejounte Murray from the Atlanta Hawks in the offseason, there was an expectation that this team may be ready to take the next step. Having only been to the playoffs twice in the past six years, with a record of 2-8, this season was a great opportunity for the team to develop a personality. Yet now, almost 40 games into the season, this team is completely irrelevant and likely has all eyes on next season.

The struggles of this team are somewhat understandable. They have been brutalised by injury since the start of the season. Zion Williamson has only played seven games, Brandon Ingram 18, newly acquired Dejounte Murray 21, and CJ McCollum 25. It has been nearly impossible for the team to find a reliable rhythm with a confirmed set of starters. However, the team’s 7-31 record, which has them last in the West and second last in the NBA (Washington Wizards - 6-29), suggests the issues go much deeper than injuries. Teams have been ravaged by injury all season and still find ways to remain relevant—for example, the 76ers, who were without their big three for the first four weeks and are without their rookie star for the rest of the season; the Orlando Magic, who are in fourth place despite currently being down three of their starters; or the Dallas Mavericks, who have won their last two games even without Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. So, what exactly is the issue for the Pelicans?

The Pelicans have won one of their last 15, and what emerges is a lack of belief that they can get the job done. Now that Williamson has returned from injury, hopefully, they can string something together because their scoring over the past few weeks has been awful. CJ McCollum is the team's leading scorer with an average of 22 ppg, which puts him in 35th place among all NBA scorers. He also leads the team in assists with only 3.8, putting him in 81st place in the league. With a team-wide 44% from the field, they sit in 29th place, and with 33.6% from 3-point range, they sit in 27th place.

Another major concern is their average of 15 turnovers per game, which has them in 17th place. This combination of complete court mediocrity is the clearest reason behind this terrible season.

The Pelicans still have a solid roster, which is why their record is so confusing. Perhaps with the return of Zion and Ingram, they can turn nothing into something, but with an estimated probability of less than 1% to make the playoffs, they would need a legendary spark to salvage this season.

Don’t look now, Pistons fans

In what is possibly the most surprising single-season turnaround in recent memory, the formerly 14-68 Detroit Pistons have found a groove and sit at eighth place in the Eastern Conference with a record above .500—a feat unseen since the 2017-18 season. Winning eight of their last 10, the Pistons are on an extremely unexpected stretch of high-level play. Despite losing Jaden Ivey for the next few months, their role players and bench fillers have been spectacular. Cade Cunningham is having a career season, averaging 24/6/9 and commanding a once-hopeless team on a possible path to the playoffs. Meanwhile, Malik Beasley has been solid, offering 16/3, coupled with Jalen Duren’s 9/9, and what seems to be a good home for Tobias Harris with 13/7/3. The Pistons are a team to watch over the next few weeks. Hopefully, they can continue this rhythm in the period without Jaden Ivey and extend beyond play-in seeding for a shot at the playoffs. It is extremely easy to root for a team like the Pistons.

Key Trade Deadline Targets

With the trade deadline just over three weeks away, rumours regarding the whereabouts of players post-February 6 are circulating. Already, names are being shopped, and there are a few highly impactful players on this list who could prove extremely valuable for teams trying to make a mid-to-late season playoff push or to solidify or increase their seeding. Here are a few names to monitor within the next few weeks.

Zion Williamson

Since entering the league as the first overall pick in the 2019 draft, Zion Williamson has majorly struggled to stay healthy and is yet to partake in a full season of NBA action injury-free. Missing 207 games so far in his five-year career (having only played 191), he hasn’t quite been the reliable franchise guy the New Orleans Pelicans expected when they drafted him. The key for Zion, which makes him an interesting trade deadline target, is his contract; specified in his contract is a caveat which states that if he were to miss more than 22 games in either 2022-23 or 2023-24, then his 2024-25, 2025-26, and 2027-28 contracts are not guaranteed. He missed 53 games in 2022-23.

Zion’s future is incredibly difficult to predict. While he has a history of injury which severely diminishes other teams' interest in trading for him, he is part of a select few players who can operate at a franchise level, and a part of an even fewer amount who are hypothetically available.

However, if he were to be traded, who would be the front runner, and what would the Pelicans get in return?

Considering their signing of Dejounte Murray, as well as the ageing of Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum, the clear path would be players over picks with a ‘win now’ attitude. A few possible partners include the Golden State Warriors, who have been actively searching for another star to help out Curry for the past few years and who have a number of young, talented, potential future stars which could help the Pelicans in various ways. The Milwaukee Bucks are also an option. While any deal likely wouldn’t include Giannis, Khris Middleton is a name which has been floated around this season for a potential trade.

Zion is an extremely talented player who can dominate as a number one option when healthy. However, this possible healthiness is far more concerning for Zion than a lot of teams will be comfortable with.

LeBron James

A seemingly annual tradition—LeBron isn’t getting the support he needs. Could he be traded? If so, where to? Once again, the Golden State Warriors are probably the favourites if he were to be traded, trying desperately for one last championship push before Curry retires. It remains uncertain whether James will be traded—I, for one, don’t believe he will be—but if he is, there are very few teams who wouldn’t be interested. The question then becomes: what can you sacrifice, and what is the benefit-to-cost ratio?

I could see LeBron returning to Miami to finish his career alongside Tyler Herro and Erik Spoelstra. Jimmy Butler is all but gone, and Bam could be following soon after. Considering LeBron probably only has two or three seasons left in the league, the Heat could immediately establish themselves as solid playoff contenders, unphased by the recent turmoil with Butler, and give their young stars a chance to learn from the greatest of all time.

Otherwise, I don’t believe there are many teams who should trade for him. The capital teams will have to give for three seasons of performance is not worth it for organisations like the Rockets, Magic, Pacers, Hawks, or Spurs—young teams who have a solid foundation but would have to blow it up in acquisition of LeBron.

Once again, I doubt he will be traded, but if so, look for a team which has bordered the line of irrelevance over the past few seasons to make a move.

Zach LaVine

For Zach LaVine, either the Bulls need to make a trade to get him the help he needs, or he needs to leave Chicago. The 29-year-old is being wasted by the Bulls, constantly on the outskirts of the playoffs, occasionally making it in only to suffer a first-round exit. LaVine is capable of controlling a contending team, but if it didn’t work on a Bulls team with LaVine, DeRozan, White, and Vucevic, Chicago isn’t the place for him. LaVine is a player who would be well suited to a younger team looking for a final piece before making a deep playoff push.

Key teams to monitor with this in mind are the Heat, Pacers, Pistons, Hawks, and Timberwolves. Any of these teams could (and should) be more than willing to sacrifice a few pieces for LaVine, whose trade value is undoubtedly lower than it should be.

The fact of the matter is that LaVine has flown under the radar for a long time—not really discussed in conversations of great players—when in the past five seasons he has averaged 27/5/5, 24/5/5, 25/5/4, 19/5/4 (25 games), and 23/5/5 through the first 32 games of this season.

LaVine is an extremely consistent player who has developed an excellent rhythm of play throughout his career, yet he could likely be traded for very cheap. Zach LaVine is a major piece to watch before the deadline, and if not by February 6, then the upcoming offseason.

In a year that seemed to be the perfect opportunity for the Magic to establish themselves as legitimate contenders, nothing has gone their way; they lost the former 1st overall pick in Week 2, only for their 2nd option, Franz Wagner, to step up and swiftly fall in Week 7, with his brother Moe suffering a season-ending torn ACL soon after. This team has faced setback after setback, and yet they sit in 4th place in the East with a 20-15 record.

Over the past two weeks, the Magic have struggled in the win column, winning only five of their last 12. However, two of these wins in particular — the win over the Boston Celtics and their 25-point comeback against the Miami Heat — are extremely telling of the grit and heart this team possesses.

The most enjoyable aspect of this team is the care they have for each other; every big play, every timeout, every momentum swing, they are huddling up, encouraging each other to take the opportunity. There is no clearer example of this than Tristan da Silva. In his last seven games, he has averaged 15/3/3 on 50% shooting and has been the spark that the Orlando Magic didn’t realise they had. Cole Anthony admitted his game-winner against Brooklyn was drawn up to go to da Silva before the Nets' defence shut him down. It shows the versatility of a young, experimental team like the Magic, who have no choice but to try new combinations and find unexpected ways to beat teams during this period without their two stars.

Paolo Banchero’s return is still in progress, with no firm timetable on his return. However, once back in action, the Magic will be one of the last teams you want to face, especially in the playoffs.

The Futures of Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat

These past few weeks, the Miami Heat have been the centre of immense trade rumours surrounding their two long-term stars, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Since Butler indicated on Christmas Day that he would rather be traded, team president Pat Riley announced that this is not an option the Heat would consider.

However, this past week in a press conference, Butler was asked if he wants to stay with the Heat. His response: “That’s a good question, who knows?” Days later, he mentioned he “wants to see [himself] getting [his] joy back playing basketball” and further added that this will “probably not” be with the Heat.

Now, he has officially requested a trade from the Miami Heat, and in response, Pat Riley and the front office have suspended him for the next seven games. It is possible that this suspension will be extended indefinitely, allowing the Heat to effectively shut him down — at least for the foreseeable future. However, as the suspension was authorised by the team rather than the NBA, this extension can only occur if, following the start of his suspension, his ‘detrimental conduct’ is determined to have continued. Whether extended or reinstated, these next two weeks will be extremely interesting for Miami.

As for where Butler lands if he is traded, it’s difficult to predict. Butler is rapidly losing his value as a number-one option and, if placed in a new system, will likely be a third-option veteran presence. I would like to see Butler on a team like the Pacers, Grizzlies, or Kings, adding a Russell Westbrook-on-the-Nuggets-esque versatility — capable of starting or coming off the bench and contributing valuable minutes.

With the apparent resurgence of Tyler Herro — averaging 25/6/5 in his last 10 — coupled with the inevitable ageing and subsequent decline of Butler and Bam, questions emerge over the longevity of the Miami three. It leaves the front office with a decision over whether to trade both Butler and Bam and rebuild with Herro as their franchise guy.

Whatever path the front office chooses, things in Miami are coming to a climax within the next few weeks — get ready.

Kawhi Leonard’s Return is Imminent

Since injuring his right knee against the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs last April, the two-time NBA Finals MVP is yet to see the court this season, and the Los Angeles Clippers are more than ready for his return.

Sitting in 7th place in the West at 19-15, the Clippers are off to a solid start for a team that lost one of their stars in the off-season in Paul George and have been without their long-term star the entire season up until now. The Clippers have an opportunity over the next few weeks to re-establish themselves as a comfortable playoff team.

However, my concern with the Clippers is that this is the exact position they have been in for the past four years — playoff hopefuls who can’t get over the hump due to injuries, discontent, and selfish basketball, ultimately resulting in a first- or second-round exit and another disappointing off-season.

The lingering concern with Kawhi Leonard is his reliability. If he can stay healthy, every fan is well aware of his capacity for domination and terrific level of play. However, this ‘if’ is more imposing for Leonard than arguably any other player in the league. Leonard is listed as questionable to play against the Atlanta Hawks this Saturday, but even if he doesn't make it out for this game, his return is imminent.

It also raises a key question about his longevity with the team. At 33, having suffered season-ending injuries in each of his past three seasons, how long has Kawhi got left in the league? Hopefully, this time’s the charm — he can bounce back, stay healthy, and lead his team into the playoffs. However, another season-ending injury could mark the end of a Hall of Fame career.

The NBA has no singular style of play, no individual identity that trumps every other, nor a group of players who have perfected the finer intricacies of the game; it is an ever-evolving and adapting sport that responds to contemporary impediments with solutions of its own.

The 3-point shot has become a topic of extreme polarisation across the league, with attempts per game at an all-time high. This has been the natural trajectory of the league for some time, however, the jump this season has been highly unexpected.

This restructuring of modern basketball was fuelled by the Boston Celtics’ 2023-24 game plan, as they attempted 42.5 threes per game, with the next highest being the Sacramento Kings at 39.3. Fast forward to Week 9 of the 24-25 season, and Boston still leads the league in attempts per game—this time with 50.4. However, the team in second place is the Chicago Bulls with 44, followed by the Charlotte Hornets with 42.4. Taking this further, the Warriors attempt 41.4, then Minnesota, San Antonio, Brooklyn, and Cleveland all sit at 39.

Last season, only two teams attempted over 39 threes per game; this season, that number has grown to eight.

Regarding shot frequency per game, the Celtics' 3-point shot consumes 55.2% of their offensive production, meaning they take significantly more threes per game than twos—a stat previously unheard of in NBA history.

I am not of the opinion that the 3-point shot is ruining the game, however, it certainly accounts for a more unpredictable style of play. For teams becoming increasingly reliant on the three, what emerges are serious concerns over benefit-to-cost ratio. If the three isn’t falling, what happens next? The Celtics are a team who live by the three and die by the three, and it has been this way for three seasons. As more teams start to abide by the same metric, we are entering uncharted territory for the consistency of the game in terms of complete team scoring.

Tracking the Indiana Pacers

Last season, the Pacers heavily overperformed, making it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals and experiencing a previously unimaginable enigma in playoff basketball—a highly competitive sweep. During this time, the Pacers showed promise as a young, savvy, creative team who repeatedly got the job done. Resting on the shoulders of All-Star Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers looked primed for a few years of genuine relevance in the NBA playoff picture.

Fast forward to Week 9 of the regular season, and the Pacers are 15-15, sitting 8th in a lacklustre Eastern Conference. The Pacers are severely underperforming from the majority of fans' expectations following their surprising playoff run last year.

However, things are looking up for the Pacers, and it was majorly needed—they have won six of their last seven, including a nice win over the Warriors. However, they’re not out of the woods yet. In their next five games, they face the Western 1-seed Oklahoma City Thunder, the Boston Celtics twice, the Bucks, and the Heat.

This is an extremely important stretch for the Pacers. A couple of underdog wins (the Pacers’ specialty) could keep them under the wings and give them the boost they need to start moving up in the seeding.

Christmas Day Did Not Disappoint

Upon the release of the NBA Christmas Day schedule, the five-game slate faced public scrutiny for overvaluing lacklustre teams such as the Suns and Lakers, while seemingly neglecting more impressive teams like the Bucks and the Thunder.

While seemingly expected to fail, Christmas basketball featured an incredible level of play, each game going wire to wire with the largest margin of victory being 10 points.

It couldn't have come at a better time for the NBA—five games, each with spectacular finishes, amidst the growing awareness of viewership decline. As of last week, NBA viewership has dropped 19% from this time last year across the major networks of TNT, ABC, and ESPN.

However, numerous stellar performances came from Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, both with 27, LeBron James with 31, Tyrese Maxey with 33, Stephen Curry with 38, Kyrie Irving with 39, Austin Reaves with a 26-point triple-double and a game-winner, Victor Wembanyama with 42, and Mikal Bridges with 41.

Unfortunately, there was one expense—Luka Dončić is out for an extended period of time after suffering a lower calf strain very early in their contest with the Timberwolves. This comes at a bad time for the Mavericks, as they continue to fight for high playoff seeding. However, all is not lost. The Mavericks currently hold a three-game lead over 5th place in the West—the Denver Nuggets—and although they came up short, Kyrie Irving’s 39 points should ease some Mavs fans' nerves.

Ultimately, it was a highly valuable week for the NBA. Over the past few weeks, games have felt more meaningful and have held a higher intensity and greater physicality. If this trend continues, it is likely that viewership ratings will increase, especially as we approach the NFL offseason.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder:
MIL wins 97-81

It was an uncharacteristically low-scoring game for these two volatile and explosive offenses. Giannis was again sensational, putting up 26/19/10 as well as locking down defensively with 2 steals and 3 blocks. Lillard was also valuable with 23 points and 5 three-pointers. On the other side, Shai performed well, totaling 21/4/2. However, for a team like OKC, which is so reliant on SGA, this sort of performance won’t win many games. Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein also impressed—Williams with 18 and Hartenstein with 16/12.

Ultimately for the Thunder, it wasn’t a good night shooting the ball, as they averaged a disappointing 33.7% from the field and a shocking 15.6% from three. This, coupled with the Bucks’ size on the interior and all-around smothering defense, proved an insurmountable task for the Thunder.

Unpacking the MVP Race

As Week 8 comes to a close, Nikola Jokic is once again the leader in MVP voting, followed closely by Shai, Tatum, and Giannis. A fascinating issue within this year's MVP race is the idea of team record and its effect on MVP winners. Last year, Jokic deserved to win MVP. However, a major impediment to Luka Doncic’s chances for third place was his team's record. Doncic averaged 34/10/9 compared to Nikola Jokic’s average of 26/12/9. The defining characteristic that separated these two players was their team record, with Jokic and the Nuggets ending the season 7 games ahead of Luka and the Mavericks.

This year, the script has been flipped. Players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum are MVP candidates on teams with impressive records. Meanwhile, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets sit at 14-11, yet the Serbian still leads all candidates in weekly voting.

However, the most accurate metric for determining the MVP award can be found in the Player Efficiency Rating (PER). John Hollinger’s PER is a player evaluation metric that combines all of a player's contributions into one number. By using this method, the statistics revealed are emblematic of a player’s complete court presence rather than simply box score performance.

According to this system, Jokic was the clear winner last season, with a score of 31.26—the next closest being Giannis with 30.14. However, this season, according to Hollinger, Giannis Antetokounmpo is currently the most valuable player, with a score of 31.96, followed by Jokic at 31.94, Shai at 28.53, and Tatum in 13th place with 23. There are a few glaring inconsistencies within this system—such as Banchero being listed in 7th place despite having played only 5 games. However, it encapsulates a more complete portrayal of a player’s value to their team.

Ultimately, this is an effective metric that should arguably be the foundation for MVP voting. Its ability to emphasise a player's value while somewhat disregarding a lackluster team record is what the award should be centred around.

Karl-Anthony Towns’ Revenge Game

For the first time since being traded this past October, Karl-Anthony Towns returned to Minnesota alongside the new Knicks outfit, and he did not disappoint. KAT exploded for 32 points and 20 rebounds and guided the Knicks to an important victory.

For KAT, however, this game clearly meant much more. He approached it with an intensity we haven’t seen from him this season—and possibly ever. He was extremely passionate, physical, and unavoidable. KAT remains adamant that there is no animosity between him and the Timberwolves, but this performance would indicate that his return meant a little bit more than just 1 of 82.

This past week was a PR nightmare for ESPN’s reputable reporter Shams Charania and Bernard Lee, as the former announced that, according to Lee—an agent representing Jimmy Butler—the Heat were "listen[ing] to trade offers" for the six-time All-Star. Lee proceeded to directly call out Charania on X using harsh profanity to further emphasise his distaste for the carelessness in reporting, insinuating that Charania is a fake, reckless reporter. Butler was asked to comment and found humour in the situation, remarking, “I love it, I’m all for the back and forth…” Despite the verbal battle on X, it is unconfirmed whether the Heat are actually entertaining trade offers for Butler, but it is certainly not out of the question. Butler currently averages 19/5/4 and has the Heat in 5th place in the East with a 13-10 record.

Giannis' spectacular play and the Bucks' future

Amidst the Milwaukee Bucks' rejuvenation following their shocking start to the season, Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing some of the best basketball of his 12-year career. Averaging 33 (a career-high)/11/6, Giannis is the primary reason for the Bucks' return to relevance and recent stretch of good games, winning 11 of their last 14.

It leaves Milwaukee with a really difficult decision: trade or hold.

If the front office decides to trade Giannis:
They would secure a solid package and, on paper, be in a highly promising situation for the start of next season. However, Giannis is the sort of player where even the king's ransom might not be enough.

If the front office decides to keep Giannis:
Something else has got to change. Since winning the title in 2021, the Bucks haven't gotten anywhere near that level of dominance again. In reality, they never should've traded Jrue Holiday. Lillard was always going to leave Portland, but he wasn’t—and isn't—the piece that the Bucks need.

I do not envy the Bucks at the moment. I do not believe it is in their best interests to trade one of the most dominant players in the league, but if they don't, they run the risk of losing him to free agency at the end of his contract. Additionally, this continued level of mismanagement and talent waste may result in him requesting a trade. I believe the best decision for the Bucks is to keep Giannis and sacrifice everything else the Bucks determine to be "dysfunctional." This could actually land them a few decent pieces. Keep one of Middleton, Portis, or Lopez; trade Lillard and the two others for as much as they can get.

Perhaps this is a case of throwing everything at the wall and hoping it sticks, but the Bucks don’t really have any other option at this point. If Giannis finishes his contract with the Bucks, it is widely believed he will enter free agency, and while this is at the end of 2027, it is necessary for the Bucks to make a decision on whether they want to trade him for a valuable setup for the next few years, risk losing him for nothing, or sacrifice everything else to make it.

Trade rumours for LeBron?

Following his terrible run of form, LeBron James has taken a personal leave of absence from the team, as confirmed by head coach JJ Redick. Meanwhile, there are swirling rumours of James being traded, as the Lakers have dropped seven of their last ten games. The key name in the trade rumours is the Golden State Warriors.

Since losing Klay Thompson—arguably since losing Durant or Iguodala—the Warriors have been looking for another piece to help Stephen Curry. Over the past few seasons, names such as Lauri Markkanen, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Vucevic have appeared, but nothing has ever manifested. A trade for LeBron would be an incredible boost for a team that is definitely overperforming—sitting in 5th place in the West with a 14-10 record—but is swiftly losing the spark that allowed them to start the season so hot. Buddy Hield isn’t shooting anywhere close to how he was in the early weeks, while the Warriors have dropped 7 of their last 10 games.

The Warriors appear extremely eager for LeBron, despite it being unclear if the Lakers are willing to trade. It will be an extremely interesting topic to monitor in the next few weeks.