The QB landscape in fantasy has historically been safe and flat — that’s to say there’ve been 15+ quality options, with the later-round guys not being all that much worse than the top ones.
But since the introduction of the “mobile QB”, rushing output has provided a floor for these options, making them worth drafting inside the top 4/5 rounds. Take Justin Fields for example, who may not be an effective passer in the NFL, but his 8.0 points per game average *only through rushing* made him at least a quality option every week, with the upside for 40+ point weeks when he can throw for production too.
This year, the landscape looks a bit different. Realistically, any of the top 10-12 guys can be top 5 QBs this year - you’re mostly paying for the level of safety. The top 4 of Allen, Hurts, Mahomes and Lamar should be high-end QB1’s if healthy, whereas Jayden Daniels could also be, but has a much wider range of outcomes.
My strategy this year is to target whoever’s going latest in that top group of 10-12 guys, or draft two later options if they’re all gone. My biggest target is Jordan Love, while my biggest fade is Joe Burrow. With all that said, here are my rankings along with what round I’m comfortable targeting them in 12-team leagues:
Tier 1 - High-End QB1’s
Josh Allen (BUF) - Round 3
Jalen Hurts (PHI) - Round 4
Patrick Mahomes (KC) - Round 4
Lamar Jackson (BAL) - Round 4
Tier 2 - Quality QB1’s
Anthony Richardson (IND) - Round 5
CJ Stroud (HOU) - Round 6
Kyler Murray (ARI) - Round 6
Dak Prescott (DAL) - Round 7
Jordan Love (GB) - Round 8
Jayden Daniels (WAS) - Round 9
Brock Purdy (SF) - Round 9
Tier 3 - Take two of these if you miss out
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) - Round 11
Joe Burrow (CIN) - Round 11
Caleb Williams (CHI) - Round 12
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) - Round 13+
Jared Goff (DET) - Round 13+
Deshaun Watson (CLE) - Round 13+
Justin Herbert (LAC) - Round 13+
Matthew Stafford (LAR) - Round 13+
Everyone else can be safely left on waivers - only in consideration as plus-matchup streaming options.
I hope my take on the QB market this year helps!