Always remember your strategy at running back determines your whole team’s strategy.
Running backs bust at a significantly higher rate than wide receivers, however, owning a 20+ PPG back massively boosts your team’s championship chances. The takeaway here is to be picky at RB — only take guys you think have a chance at an RB1 overall season because a solid “floor” doesn’t really exist for any RB.
In fantasy there are three ways to go at RB in the first few rounds which will inform how you construct your team for the rest of the draft:
Double Hero RB: Selecting two RBs in the hopes of having two league-winning running backs. This is extremely risky but if you can thread the needle, you are nearly guaranteed to have one of the best teams in your league. The catch is that of the 12-15 options in the first few rounds, only 2-4 will make this strategy worthwhile and missing one of these picks puts you at a large disadvantage. After taking your two RBs, you shouldn’t touch RB again until Round 9/10. I would also only try this strategy in Half PPR leagues or ones where you can only start three WRs.
Hero RB: The most versatile strategy which can be applied to nearly any format. Take an RB early and then take a few late-round guys. Between that and being active on the waiver wire, the hope is that you can find RB2 production, and benefit from the high draft capital you invested at receiver.
Zero RB: Likely only suitable for PPR leagues where you can start 4+ WRs, Zero RB takes Hero RB to the extreme. You punt RB until Round 6/7, prioritising a strong WR core and an elite QB and/or TE. Then take a stable of late RBs and hope you can find solid RB production (also using the waiver wire). While this may feel risky, there’s an argument that taking RB is riskier than WR at each individual pick, so maybe investing any high draft capital into RB is actually the riskier option. Zero RB has a shockingly impressive track record and may be worth a try if you haven’t before.
With this in mind, I’ve essentially split my rankings into how much of a chance a player has at league-winning upside. Here’s my RB rankings for 2024, along with the rounds I’m comfortable targeting them:
Tier 1 - Elite RB1’s
These three feel more likely than not to give you a huge advantage this year.
Christian McCaffrey (SF) - Round 1
Breece Hall (NYJ) - Round 1
Bijan Robinson (ATL) - Round 1
Tier 2 - RB1 Candidates
Strong cases can be made for each of these guys for how they could achieve a league-winning season. Maybe not likely but the path is clear.
Jonathan Taylor (IND) - Round 1
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) - Round 2
De’Von Achane (MIA) - Round 2
Kyren Williams (LAR) - Round 2
Saquon Barkley (NYG) - Round 3
Isiah Pacheco (KC) - Round 3
Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) - Round 3
Tier 3 - Value RB1’s?
With the success of early WR’s in recent years, RBs who would have used to go in the top 2 rounds are falling this year. Some interesting teams can be built by going after this tier as “hero” RBs, while still getting elite WRs. Just make sure you’re getting good value and not reaching because these guys do still have some genuine concerns.
Derrick Henry (BAL) - Round 4
James Cook (BUF) - Round 4
Josh Jacobs (GB) - Round 4
Joe Mixon (HOU) - Round 5
Kenneth Walker II (SEA) - Round 5
Tier 4 - Dead Zone
I would strongly avoid this range unless you are getting a “too good to be true” value - the opportunity cost of the WRs you would be passing up on is just so high in most leagues.
Rachaad White (TB) - Round 6
David Montgomery (DET) - Round 6
Najee Harris (PIT) - Round 7
Aaron Jones (MIN) - Round 6
Alvin Kamara (NO) - Round 6
Jaylen Warren (PIT) - Round 7
Jonathon Brooks (CAR) - Round 8
Zamir White (LV) - Round 8
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) - Round 9
Chase Brown (CIN) - Round 9
Tyjae Spears (TEN) - Round 9
Raheem Mostert (MIA) - Round 10
James Conner (ARI) - Round 10
D’Andre Swift (CHI) - Round 10
Zack Moss (CIN) - Round 10
Tony Pollard (TEN) - Round 11
Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) - Round 11
Tier 5 - Late Round Priorities
My preferred picks to try and find that RB2 late.
Blake Corum (LAR) - Round 11
Javonte Williams (DEN) - Round 11
Trey Benson (ARI) - Round 11
Jerome Ford (CLE) - Round 12
Gus Edwards (LAC) - Round 12
Rico Dowdle (DAL) - Round 12
Jaylen Wright (MIA) - Round 12
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) - Round 12
Tier 6 - Fliers
Hopefully you can fill out your bench with the guys above, the rest of these are ones you can take a swing on but be ready to drop quickly when an RB on waivers looks more promising.
Austin Ekeler (WAS) - Round 13+
J.K. Dobbins (LAC) - Round 13+
Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) - Round 13+
Audric Estime (DEN) - Round 13+
Zach Charbonnet (SEA) - Round 13+
Ty Chandler (MIN) - Round 13+
Tyler Allgeier (ATL) - Round 13+
Braelon Allen (NYJ) - Round 13+
Bucky Irving (TB) - Round 13+
Antonio Gibson (NE) - Round 13+
Nick Chubb (CLE) - Round 13+
Tank Bigsby (JAC) - Round 13+
Jordan Mason (SF) - Round 13+
Hope this helps with your draft - stay tuned for more positions coming soon.