NCAA Basketball Conference Tournament Predictions

Can you smell that? The greatest month of the year is upon us

It is March and that only means one thing, March Madness is right around the corner. College basketball has experienced a renaissance this year, between a generational freshman class and the play of some of the strongest analytical teams in the sport’s history, it has set up what will be a fascinating few weeks in the sport. However, before we get to the big dance there are still conference titles that need to be decided. While we could not cover all 31 conferences, below is a quick breakdown of the five strongest conferences likely to appear on your screens at some point this week. There is plenty to play for this week whether it’s championship glory or even just the opportunity to go dancing, there’ll be upsets, embarrassments and heartbreak. Who’s to say what will even happen? One thing is for certain though and that is that nothing is certain in this sport. With that, let’s get to it:

ACC

The falloff of the ACC is here, and it’s even uglier than most could have predicted. Pre-tournament, this power conference of 18(!) teams is currently projected to have three teams make the tournament field, with Duke, Louisville, and Clemson all tournament locks at this point. However, there are still a few teams in Charlotte this week vying for a spot in the tournament with Wake Forest, UNC and SMU all firmly on the bubble, albeit the wrong side of it. However, there is a path for at most two teams to get back onto the right side of the bubble.

SMU’s tournament hopes are on life support right now. The Ponies have failed to record a single Q1 win this year. Combine this with a poor non-conference schedule and declining metrics, their only hope of tournament qualification likely rests on a rather improbable trip to the championship game, relying on wins against both Louisville and Clemson along the way. UNC and Wake Forest stand in each other’s way for a ticket to the tournament. A second-round win for UNC should set up what is essentially a win or go home game for both program’s seasons in the quarterfinals. A loss for Wake Forest in this game would eliminate them from tournament contention entirely. While there may be a path for UNC even with a loss, it would require a lot of things to go right. For the winner of this game, a win against Duke in the semifinals would likely get either team over the hump and into the tournament. A loss in this game most likely eliminates Wake Forest and once again leaves UNC very vulnerable come Selection Sunday having to rely on its top 40 metrics and an absolutely brutal non-conference SOS.

Theoretically there are three realistic contenders for the ACC Championship: Duke, Clemson and Louisville. In reality there is only one. Jon Scheyer has built a monster this year, led by ACC Freshman and Player of the Year Cooper Flagg, the Blue Devils have played their way to an impressive 19-1 record in conference play. Not only are they the best team in the nation in terms of overall adjusted efficiency this year, they rank as one of the best of all time in this metric. It’s silly to pick anyone other than the Blue Devils with such an easy path to the title and such a weak conference field.

Prediction: Duke

Value Bets I like: None

Big10

On paper, the Big 10 has looked solid, possibly even quite good this year. In reality, this conference is starting to fall off at the wrong time of the year. What was once a conference that looked like it might produce multiple contenders in March is now one where many are starting to count how many early exits we might see. 1 seed Michigan State all the way through to 8 seed Oregon are all locked in. However, there are still two teams that come into this tournament with aspirations of a bid, Indiana and Ohio State. For Indiana, this will be Mike Woodson’s last hurrah, a win over Oregon in the second round will more than likely do the job in securing a bid and might possibly even secure a final bye. A loss may not spell the end though for Woodson and the Hoosiers given the three Q1A wins on their resume although it would certainly make for some tense viewing on Selection Sunday. Ohio State sits just two games above .500 and are currently the last team in. The Buckeyes need to put together a streak if they want any chance of remaining on the right side of the bubble. This means a win against Iowa in the first round and a win against Illinois in the second round. Anything less would likely spell an early end to the season for the Buckeyes.

A lot of the Big 10 comes into this year's tournament on a considerable cold streak. Early season powerhouses such as Purdue and Wisconsin have faded over the last few weeks and Michigan looks like a shell of the team they were a month ago. Enter the inevitable, Tom Izzo, now the winningest coach in the history of the Big 10. Izzo and the Spartans are enjoying a dominant stretch of play at the moment and come into this tournament as not only the hottest team in the Big 10 but also as one of the hottest teams in the nation. It’s quite simple, Michigan State should and will win the Big 10 tournament, over the course of their seven game win streak they continue to prove that they can beat teams in multiple ways whether it be stifling defense or offensive flurries from beyond the arc. Tom Izzo has been here before and he knows well what it takes to win this tournament. Michigan State currently sits around +250 to win the tournament, a surprise for a team that is easily the most in form in the field and also has the easiest path to the championship with possible matchups against Oregon or Indiana and UCLA or Wisconsin. Don’t overthink it, Indianapolis will be showering in Sparty green and white come Saturday.

Prediction: Michigan State

Value Bets I like: Michigan State

Big12

These Big 12 schools should be embarrassed. What Kelvin Sampson and the Houston Cougars have done to this conference over the past two years is nothing short of miraculous. We’ve seen teams make the jump from mid-major to power conference before. That in and of itself is nothing new. However, what Sampson and the Cougars have done to this conference is simply beyond belief. Houston have gone 34-4 across their first two years in this conference, thirty four and four (!!!). They have now won back to back regular season titles and are now eyeing up their first tournament title as members of the Big 12. I would not blame anyone for thinking that Houston will cruise to a Big 12 Championship. As has been a staple of all Kelvin Sampson teams, their defense has been impermeable all year, giving even the best players in the country trouble in finding their spots and creating open looks. Combine this with an offense that is humming through their main facilitator LJ Cryer and you have a team that not only looks like strong contenders in the Big 12 but strong contenders to become National Champions.

However, there are some teams who could cause Houston a bit of trouble. The most likely to knock them off is Texas Tech and they are actually the team who I believe will win this tournament. Texas Tech has sneakily become one of the best teams in the country this season. Grant McCasland has built what he proclaims to be the best roster he has ever put together and it really shows. Texas Tech currently sits seventh in the nation in NET rating thanks to a dominant offense led by Big 12 player of the year JT Toppin. This team is not afraid to shoot the ball and is one of the best teams in the nation at spacing the floor, running their offense through primary ball screens and creating open looks from both the midrange and beyond the arc. The Red Raiders have leaned heavily into their shooting strengths making double digit threes in more than half of their games this year. Combine this with the fact that Texas Tech were the only team to beat Houston in conference play, shorthanded as well I should mention and the case feels quite compelling for Texas Tech to pull off the upset again.

Teams such as Iowa State and Arizona also have quite good cases to win this tournament but their runs largely rely on the health of their respective teams. One team that is possibly being overlooked right now is BYU. Behind Houston, BYU finished the season with the second best winning streak having not dropped a game since the 9th of February. With their odds sitting at +1000 to win three games I quite like the value for a team that has proven it can beat the top teams in the Big 12 and is running hot at the right time. The Big 12 is one of the only tournaments with no true bubble teams. TCU and Cincinnati come into this tournament with a path to a bid but both teams likely require at least two, possibly even three wins along their respective paths to get back into bubble conversation. Every team from 1 seed Houston through to 6 seed Kansas is locked into a bid. Baylor and West Virginia should both make the tournament. However, a first match loss for either team could drop them close enough to the cut line where they could be caught out by bid stealers.

Prediction: Texas Tech

Value Bets I like: BYU

SEC

The 14 bid dream is well and truly alive for the SEC. The SEC has been nothing short of exceptional this year from top to bottom. Not only has it been by far the best conference this year in terms of NET rating and non conference record but some believe the SEC field this year ranks among some of the best of all time. From this 16 team field there are 12 teams that are pretty much locked in for a tournament bid ranging from the 1 seed Auburn all the way to the 12 seed Vanderbilt. In Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology Oklahoma landed in the first spot of the Last Four In. Oklahoma can essentially lock up a tournament bid with a win against Georgia in the first round. Even with a loss, Oklahoma should still have a decent chance to make the tournament although they would very much be at threat from bid stealers and other championship week risers if they do drop the game against Georgia. The other team looking to lock up a tournament spot this week is the Texas Longhorns. Currently sitting on the First Four Out, Texas likely needs to beat both Vanderbilt and A&M to feel even remotely confident about a tournament bid.

As for who can win this tournament it truly is anyone’s best guess. Auburn has been the class of the SEC and college basketball all year and it feels hard to bet against them, although dropping their final two regular season games means they come into this tournament on a bit of a cold streak. Florida is easily the hottest team in the SEC at the moment, rattling off straight wins at Alabama and against Texas A&M in the final week of the season and could be seen as the favourites to win the whole thing. There are also great cases for Tennessee, Texas A&M and Kentucky. However, the team I’m backing to win it all is Alabama. Alabama has been up and down over the final month of the season but look revitalised following an impressive away win at Auburn. Nate Oats’ team feels like it’s built for these tournament settings. Alabama plays chaos ball so to speak, their pace of play is historically high. Such a high pace of play is designed to unsettle the teams they play and thus beat teams with overwhelming offense and just enough stops on defense. It’s quite a simple but logical playing philosophy, more shots = more points. Oats has a plethora of offensive firepower in his side who can beat teams both on the perimeter with Marc Sears and Labaron Philon and in the paint with Grant Nelson and others, and unlike last year’s team, this Alabama team has significantly cleaned up its defense jumping all the way to 31 in KenPom defensive efficiency compared to an abysmal ranking of 111 last year. This team has the playstyle and the tools to get hot, combine this with the motivation of clinching a one seed if they were to win the tournament and I believe Alabama will edge out the rest of the field and take the SEC title.

Prediction: Alabama

Value Bets I like: Anyone other than Auburn & Florida

Big East

It’s been a down year for the Big East. Reigning national champions UConn have looked underwhelming and other perennial tournament teams such as Creighton, Marquette and Villanova look downright disappointing. Enter St. John's, not only the story of the Big East this year but possibly even the story of college basketball. Rick Pitino’s return to the NCAA with the Red Storm has been nothing short of spectacular, leading the program to a Big East regular season title for the first time in 40 years and a top 10 ranking in the nation, all in his first two years in the job. The Johnnies play a suffocating brand of basketball relying largely on defensive prowess and slick zone transitioning between the perimeter and the paint. If you want to see some nearly flawless defensive basketball I highly recommend you google some St. John's highlights for your viewing pleasure. Although it hasn’t been completely smooth sailing for Pitino and the Johnnies this year, the offense has taken a pretty significant step back in year 2. St John’s shooting consistency remains their biggest downfall and may hold them back from winning it all in the National tournament. Even with the offensive issues, St. Johns looked dominant in conference play, often playing a very grinding style of basketball through a largely limited selection of shots under the basket and around the free throw line. It feels wrong to pick against the Johnnies especially when they are playing the tournament on a home court (MSG) and are also undefeated at MSG this year.

As for the rest of the field there’s really only one team in the field playing for tournament implications this week. Xavier come into this tournament off the back of one of the best winning streaks in the Big East this season. They currently sit on the Last Four In and have a golden opportunity (excuse the pun) to lock up a tournament bid with a win over Marquette in their opening round match. A loss would in all likelihood eliminate them from tournament contention. The only other team that could possibly steal a spot in the tournament could be Villanova. Villanova have been eliminated from at large contention which is a crime given how Eric Dixon is playing at the moment. Their only path into the tournament would be to win the Big East title outright and steal a bid. While it feels unlikely, this Villanova team has demonstrated that it can hang with the best in the Big East on any given day with big wins against St. Johns, UConn and Marquette in regular season play. The only real issue is on any given day the same Villanova team that lost to Columbia (a sub-250 KenPom team) could also show up.

Prediction: St. Johns

Value Bets I like: None