There’s less than 24 hours till football’s back so time for our first weekly picks of the year.
Recap of 2025 picks
As always, betting performance is tracked and verified by BettingPros.
Last year, we finished with a 53-45 record (54.1%) with a profit of +5.80 units (1 unit/bet).
Spread: 26-22 (54.2%), +2.93 units
O/U: 27-23 (54.0%), +2.87 units
This placed 36th out of 283 experts. Not bad, but we’ll be aiming for that 1st place we got back in 2022!
This brings Touchdown Squad’s lifetime record (since 2020) to 467-354-10 (56.9%), +89.88 units:
Spread: 254-192-5 (57.0%), +37.35 units
O/U: 213-162-5 (56.8%), +52.53 units
Week 1 Picks
To be honest, in most years Weeks 1-3 are where the money’s made. Models and intuition can typically outpace bookies in terms of adjusting to new schemes but this year, the shifts seem to be well understood and value is definitely harder to find. Mainly:
O/U are on average 1.5 points higher in Week 1s each year, though they turn out to be +2.9 points vs expectation when adjusting for game situations based on our analysis in the last 5 years. I hold the opinion though with the shift being towards heavier sets now (ie more 12, 13 personnel - especially among previously prolific offenses), points total expectations should be tempered and while opening lines looked to have been more valuable, it seems most of them have come back towards me. We will have our chances for example with DET who play lighter sets (although keeping only 6 WRs on the roster doesn’t help), but that time isn’t yet…
For spreads, new coordinators/HCs who were previously playcallers tend to be tricky since the public goes aggressive on them, and consequently Vegas usually does well. With that being said, I find this year’s crop like Kubiak or McDaniel tougher to fade, mostly since I just believe in them and think they have good environments. So as a similar but maybe underlooked theme, this year I’m targeting the new playcallers on new teams (think Declan Doyle in BAL or Mannion in Philly, for example).
Against the Spread
Ravens -3.5 @ Colts
Happy to fade the Colts this year and as mentioned above I think there’s upside suprise potential for Doyle in BAL. This is a guy who’s been handpicked and learnt under both McVay and Payton.
Browns +8.5 @ Jaguars
Definitely feels gross but given how big the line is, feels like you're getting good value for being contrarian. Public is over 80% on JAX so that helps too.
Cowboys -2.5 @ Giants (key pick)
Long-time fans will know we’ve done lots of analysis on these NFC East games before. Spreads are usually deceptively small but DAL plays well here, and while NYG under Harbaugh will be more competitive, I am surprised the spread is this small given potential snap counts for key NYG offensive pieces.
Over/Under
Buccaneers/Bengals Under 50.5
Doesn’t feel good to side with the public here but have to agree the line is aggressive. CIN offense is explosive but TB defense shouldn’t be doubted this much.
Browns/Jaguars Over 40.5
This is essentially a bet on Monken and/or Coen having some tricks up their sleeve that surprise defenses coming out of the offseason.
Jets/Titans Over 39.5
Another contrarian pick that will either hit big or miss big, but I’d rather bet on the former. Jets defense is horrific and maybeee Geno can still make this thing go. Public is heavily, and I mean heavily (92%!), on the Under.
Packers/Vikings Over 45.5 (key pick)
Back in 2022, KOC’s first game as a HC was a blowout win vs the Packers in Week 1. While I doubt that happens again, these are two fantastic playcallers who seemingly each have offensive hurdles the market is punishing them for. In GB, people are overreacting to Jacobs’ absence - Lafleur has really never been reliant on any one skill-position player, let alone an aging, inefficient buiser back; and in MIN, well we’ll just start betting on them until people get how good this Kyler/KOC combo is gonna be…
Good luck this week!
Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines
Minimum of 6 picks/week.
Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.
Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.
If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and
strikethroughsif necessary (with replacement picks).Please gamble responsibly.