Week 1 Recap
Week 1 was all we hoped for with plenty of tight games that came down to the last few plays (especially the primetime ones). As far as betting picks, this week we went 5-4 (+0.56 units) and will look for another profitable week in Week 2.
After this past week, here are the ten takeaways I have ranging across both fantasy and betting:
Take a deep breath, don’t overreact
Whether it’s your fantasy team or a season-long future, we’ve seen many times where Week 1 is incredibly misleading. In fact for fantasy, it takes until Week 4 for weekly rankings to have any meaningful correlation with end-of-season rankings - there’s no need to panic on anyone just yet.
Tight end usage was woeful, LaPorta and McBride the ones to beat
Likely and McBride were the only tight ends with any real roles in Week 1 (everyone else had <10 expected fantasy points per PFF) - an interesting trend for both fantasy and betting to take note of if it continues in Week 2.
For fantasy, I would trust Likely in your lineups until further notice. Regardless of Andrews being double-teamed in 94% of routes, Likely’s 78% snap share is no joke and he’s the third option in that offense at worst.
Rookie pass-catchers to target in fantasy and props
Underlying metrics and overall usage were very strong for Brian Thomas Jr. (76.2 PFF grade and a staggering 15% 1st down/route run) and Ladd McConkey (32% target/route run) in their debuts. Behind them were Keon Coleman (90% route participation) and Brock Bowers (78% route participation). Look to go after all of these guys where you can.
Retro Cooper Kupp
Congratulations if you drafted Cooper Kupp this year in fantasy. 100% of the routes run, 41% targets/routes run, and a 44% target share. Absolute smash pick.
Cautiously optimistic about Saquon, Kyren
Saquon looked explosive in his Eagles debut and he looks to have overall RB1 upside. Kyren had a monster snap share and put any worry about his punt-returning duties to rest. I wouldn't be too concerned about Corum just yet either, the only issue that arose for him is that Ronnie Rivers does seem to have a role this year.
It was a strange game script so I wouldn’t be putting all my chips in yet, but Taylor had elite usage (95% snap share, 85% of carries). Promising for the weeks ahead but will still need receptions.
Ambiguous backfields
Tennessee - Not overwhelming but Pollard appears to be the clear 1A for the time being.
Cincinnati - Really tough for us Brown truthers… Moss seems to be the lead back with Brown just mixing in here and there.
Buccaneers - Good usage for both in a blowout win. Volume was a win for White but Irving was most productive - will be a backfield to keep an eye on.
Jags - The Bigsby hype was real - he needs to rostered in all fantasy leagues as a premier handcuff and has standalone value regardless.
Panthers - I’d avoid everyone in this offense for now. It looked horrific and the Hubbard/Sanders split meant neither was usable.
Cowboys - Zeke has the edge for now over Dowdle but in my opinion this could flip-flop each week.
Raiders - Perfect example of why to avoid dead zone backs - Zamir White was outsnapped 59% to 39% by… Alexander Mattison. We’ll have to see how this shakes out next week but White shouldn’t be trusted.
Broncos - Wheels up on McLaughlin, Payton seems to really trust him; Javonte didn’t get the usage we were hoping for.
Chargers - As long as Dobbins is healthy, he’s a must-start in fantasy. Just remember he’s here for a good time, not a long time.
Steelers - With Cordarelle Patterson having a role, it will be hard to start Warren for the moment. Najee looks very solid.
Atlanta offense hampered by Kirk
Bijan — free from the reigns of Arthur Smith — finally got the usage he deserves. Unfortunately in Cousins’ first week, it’s clear they were *incredibly* nervous about him taking hits… he broke the tackle box just once, with zero play-action snaps (!!), and zero under-center snaps.
Vikings will be fine, what about the Browns?
Even without McCarthy, Darnold (with Kevin O’Connell’s system) looks very capable of supporting this offense. Granted, it was the Giants, but the top 3 neutral pass rate suggests this offense will continue to hum.
Speaking of neutral pass rate, the Browns led the league last week at 75%. If this continues along with Watson’s poor play, the calls for Jameis Winston to replace him will grow louder and louder. That would be a great outcome for fantasy with Cooper’s value especially likely to skyrocket.
Are the Saints actually good?
Klint Kubiak’s offense looked lively, leading the league in pre-snap motion. This poses really well for Olave (great buy-low candidate) and Shaheed. Let’s just hope Carr can keep up this quality of play.
Richardson, Texans WRs will feast this season
Richardson only completed 9 passes this week but still finished as a top 5 QB in fantasy… insane weekly floor and upside. It also looks like this Texans offense should be able to support all three Texans WRs, with Dell’s pass drops and penalties holding him back from a big day too.
Hope you all enjoy the Bills/Dolphins game and I’ll be back later this week for my Week 2 picks!