Hope everyone is excited for another year of football!
This post has a few parts:
Changes to Touchdown Squad picks
Recap of 2024 picks
Week 1 Picks
Season Long Win Total Picks
Changes to Touchdown Squad picks
This year, with me starting a new job, Touchdown Squad’s picks will be free. The paid tier will be deactivated for now and everyone will be transitioned to the free tier. I’ll revisit this for next year, but I hope everyone enjoys the picks!
Recap of 2024 picks
As always, betting performance is tracked and verified by BettingPros.
Last year, we finished with an 85-66-3 record (56.3%) with a profit of 10.88 units (1 unit/bet):
Spread: 40-33-2 (55.4%), +3.47 units
O/U: 45-33-1 (58.4%), +7.52 units
This brings Touchdown Squad’s lifetime record (since 2020) to 414-309-10 (57.3%), +84.08 units:
Spread: 228-170-5 (57.3%), +34.44 units
O/U: 186-139-5 (57.2%), +49.64 units
This placed me 22nd out of 306 experts in 2024 - overall a very solid year with profit in both bet types. With that being said though, this year I’ll be aiming again for that 1st place I got in 2022!
Week 1 Picks
Interestingly, early in the year tends to be when I’ve done the best. Looking at my splits on BettingPros, Weeks 1-5 account for 56% of my positive ROI, with the first two weeks in particular being my strongest.
Week 1-2 Splits from 2020-2024:
Spread: 47-30 (61.0%)
O/U: 41-27-1 (60.3%)
The uncertainty of new players, coaches, etc is always a potential source of mispricings early in the year, and this year I see lots of opportunities in Week 1:
2025 Record: 0-0-0 (-%), 0.00 units
Against the Spread
Dolphins +1.5 @ Colts
Saints +6.5 vs. Cardinals
49ers -1.5 @ Seahawks
Rams -3 vs. Texans
Bills +1.5 vs. Ravens
Vikings -1.5 vs. Bears
Over/Under
Raiders/Patriots Over 43.5
Giants/Commanders Under 45.5
Texans/Rams Over 43.5
Season Long Win Total Picks
One of my favourite bet types (if you’re willing to let your money sit there all season) is season-long win totals. Last year we went 6-1, and here are my picks for this year:
Colts Under 7.5 Wins
Cowboys Over 7.5 Wins
Commanders Over 9.5 Wins
Seahawks Under 8.5 Wins
Dolphins Over 7.5 Wins
Cardinals Under 8.5 Wins
Saints Over 4.5 Wins
Vikings Over 8.5 Wins
Good luck everyone this year!