Week 10 Fantasy Recap
10 lessons from Week 10
After a few weeks (or half the season) off from doing this weekly report, I’m back with some stats and insights as we enter the final stretch before the fantasy playoffs.
Rookie receivers
Brock Bowers is a locked-in top 3 TE ROS - 88.0 PFF grade is the highest rookie TE PFF grade ever.
Malik Nabers has been rough - still getting amazing volume (30.4% targets/ route run - 2nd in league) but this was the preseason concern that he can’t do anything with it in that putrid offense. Without Andrew Thomas, Nabers has 26 receptions for 221 receiving yards in 4 games; really bad efficiency for 42 targets.
If he isn’t scoring the TDs he becomes more of a Diontae Johnson (Steelers version) type play. Hard to see the upside.
For the record, I still believe strongly in Nabers long-term (ie. future years).
Marvin Harrison Jr. had a fantastic week, absolutely torching Sauce Gardner.
I’d be wary of Brian Thomas Jr, there’s a chance with the season going nowhere and him being half-injured that they slowly fade him out for this year. Look to sell if you can and I’d ideally only start him in favourable matchups.
The Chargers passing offense has found new life since their bye with Justin Herbert not throwing an INT in 7 games now. Sadly it hasn’t trickled through to Ladd McConkey yet - let’s hope he can find some more production as the year ends.
Rome Odunze has been brutal efficiency-wise (1.29 yards per route - 101st out of 119 receivers) but to be fair that offense is awful. In redraft it’s hard to trust him moving forward, I think he needs a full offseason to find his footing as a receiver in the league.
Xavier Worthy is now below 1 yard per route run (bottom 5 on that same list as Odunze and without the offensive troubles as a real excuse). He can safely be dropped and sadly for the Chiefs, no WR has ever had even 800 yards in a season after posting a <1 YPPR season as a rookie. He had everything break his way: Hollywood Brown injured, Rashee Rice injured and he just simply couldn’t perform (hence the Hopkins trade). I think we’re justified in calling him the newest 40-yard merchant bust.
Ricky Pearsall is averaging 5 targets a game since his debut and his PFF grade has improved each week. If he can break through his ~70% route participation, he is definitely drawing live to be this year’s late-season rookie-WR league-winner.
They finally let Jermaine Burton play and he fucked it up real bad - Iosivas back as WR3 moving forward.
Jalen Coker is knocking on the door of an 80+ PFF grade, only achieved as a rookie WR by Diggs, Jefferson, Chase, Nucua, and St. Brown (likely Nabers will join them too). Bit of a bummer week for him but I am extremely bullish on him long-term.
Devaughn Vele has cemented himself as the WR2 ahead of Lil Jordan Humphrey and fellow rookie Troy Franklin - the question is if this offense has enough to support a 2nd fantasy-relevant WR. Good add in deep or very competitive leagues.
“Win the 7th”
- Russell Wilson’s version of “Let’s Ride” for the Steelers.
Cringe aside, the Russ effect is real! George Pickens has come alive with outrageous catches and much-improved fantasy production. The main difference has not been in the quantity of his targets, but the quality of them:
7.0 targets per game with both Fields and Wilson but his:
aDOT has improved from 12.6 yards to 16.6
Air yards/per game improved from 88 to 116
Endzone targets/per game improved from 0.5 to 1.7
And of course fantasy points/game from 10.1 to 18.0
His 3.21 yards per route run is only behind Nico Collins on the season. Arguably a top-12 weekly WR play for the moment.
Mike Williams ran 7 routes but of course caught the game-winning TD. With Wilson, there is definitely upside for him to be TD-dependant, decent flex play weekly when he starts running more routes.
Pat Friermuth also ran about 70% of the routes and got a receiving TD - viable to stream in good matchups.
JaMarr Chase has 3 50+ point PPR games. That’s more than Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Calvin Johnson combined.
Might have the single highest weekly ceiling of all time. Only player ever with 3 50+ point games.
Give Mac Jones one more week, Cooper Rush not so much
With these two replacing their respective starters, neither situation is ideal. But the Vikings are the best defense in the league this year in terms of EPA/play - if you have Evan Engram I think he is still playable but ideally none of the RBs or WRs.
Cooper Rush on the other hand was just miserable with zero consolations - CeeDee Lamb is now a low-end WR2 and Rico Dowdle is a touchdown-dependant RB2/flex. Huge downgrades to everyone.
One extra note on the Jags game - TJ Hockenson is back as a top-6 TE ROS.
Broncos backfield shakeup
Out of nowhere, Sean Payton decided it’s Audric Estime time, leading the backfield considerably in snap share and touches. Javonte Williams should be rostered but not started and Jaleel McLaughlin should be dropped. Definitely pick up Estime but I wouldn’t go nuts, he didn’t do an awful lot with all his volume.
And don’t look now, but Courtland Sutton has 10 targets/game in his last 4 games, performing as the WR4 overall in that timespan.
Calvin Ridley has arrived
Since DeAndre Hopkins’ departure, Calvin Ridley has averaged a 36% target share and 20.1 PPR points per games (compared to 21% and 7.5 PPG with Hopkins). Even with Levis and Rudolph, Ridley can be played as a top-24 WR moving forward.
With Tyjae Spears back, this week was brutal for Tony Pollard owners. Coming off a 31 touch game in Week 9, he goes back down to 53% of the snaps this week (85% last week). Spears took the other 47% of snaps meaning this is essentially a 50/50 split moving forward. Both of them are matchup dependant RB2s moving forward; a firm downgrade from Pollard’s top 15 status before.
Chargers thoughts
Gus Edwards was more efficient than JK Dobbins this week which doesn’t bode well for Dobbins moving forward, especially if Hasaan Haskins is in the mix vulturing TDs. If the two-way split with the third guy taking the goal line work continues, in a newly pass-heavy offense, it’s hard to trust any of the backs on the Chargers.
In addition to Justin Herbert’s no-INT streak, he’s also seemingly become a mobile QB lately? 2 of his career 6 games with 30+ rushing yards have come in the last 3 weeks - if he can add a rushing floor to his fantasy skillset, he’d become a top-10 play weekly.
Just a little “fantasy theory” lesson related to this: remember that QB rushing is a tendency stat, not athleticism or ability-based. Herbert’s athleticism score from the combine is actually higher than Josh Allen’s but its simply the nature in how each of these two play QB that determines their rushing output. This is the same reason why Richardson despite being an athletic freak, was only 15th in scramble rate (he did get rushing TDs though).
CMC is back
Christian McCaffrey basically scored his floor this week and it was 16.7 PPR points - if you’ve waited, it seems he will finally reward your patience in these next few weeks.
Jauan Jennings looks like a high-end flex play with 11 targets and earned the highest PFF grade in the receiver room. Deebo Samuel on the other hand doesn’t seem to have the efficiency right now (with him it could always come back though). I’d just temper expectations for him at the moment as more of a low-end WR2 play. We spoke about Ricky Pearsall earlier but I’d rank him as a flex-play with big upside moving forward.
Bijan RB1 overall?
25.5, 23.3, 23.6, 21.5, 29.4 points are Bijan Robinson’s last 5 games. When we’re looking for a true league-winning RB, we want 23-24+ PPG. Henry, Mixon, Kamara, and Saquon seem to be capping out around 21-22 (still good for RB1 overall some years) but if Bijan’s dominance continues, he might be the one that could eclipse that elite benchmark and be the league-winner from this draft out of nowhere.
In addition to Bijan, Henry, Mixon, Kamara, and Saquon, I would add Achane and McCaffrey as the 7-man race for this year’s true league winner down the stretch. Sadly Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall seem to be losing volume from their team's pass-heavy approaches.
Mike Tomlin is incredible
Seeing Diontae Johnson become the latest WR to become so toxic outside the Steelers, it amazes me that Mike Tomlin could keep Johnson, Martavis Bryant, Antonio Brown, George Pickens currently, and many more over the years all under control. His stable culture and ability to find ways to win like on Sunday show why he’s one of the greatest coaches of our generation.