Week 2 Fantasy Recap

Seven lessons learned from a much more exciting Week 2

Sep 19, 2024

Week 2 had plenty of surprises in store with underdogs going 11-5 against the spread, highlighted by the Raiders stunning win after Baltimore was giving 9.5 points. As far as fantasy, a second data point for everyone provided a lot more info on if Week 1 trends were breakouts, or fakeouts.

Death of the passing offense

Here are passing touchdowns through Week 2 of each season:

2018: 114
2019: 105
2020: 110
2021: 110
2022: 105
2023: 86
And 2024… 68 TDs

Passing yards per game follow the same trend, being below 200 passing yards per team and this is also the highest sack rate in the first 2 weeks of the season since 1999 (7.8%).

It’s hard to know all the answers to this but as I spoke about in my betting picks last week, Cover 2 High packages have continued to dominate offenses this season. This result has been to take what the defense is giving teams - consistent running plans against light boxes. Most teams using Shanahan/McVay style schemes will need to adapt quickly.

The Saints look scary

I say most teams because Klint Kubiak and his explosive Saints offense have been quite the exception. Through two games the Saints rank 1st in Expected Points Added/Play, and 1st in play action rate. A far cry from their 30th in both those categories a year ago. The OL is wildly improved with McCoy, Ruiz, and rookie Fuaga playing at all-pro level, and Saldiveri/Penning (now at RT) playing well enough to get by. Carr is consistently attacking down the field, which is even more impressive against these conservative Cover 2 schemes. Olave is a clear buy-low candidate - eventually the Saints won’t be winning every game by 5 possessions and Olave’s 34% target share will matter when they have to throw the ball more than 16 times.

Everyone’s hurt

Nearly every first-round pick this year hasn’t worked out so far, with even Hall and Jefferson (quad injury) not being complete hits. Injuries have decimated NFL (and fantasy) teams with CMC, Puka, Kupp, AJ Brown, Deebo, Pacheco, Walker, Love, and Tua highlighting a long list of sidelined players. Hopefully, you’ve been able to avoid the injury bug but in the likely case you haven’t, I would be active on the trade market trying to buy these players if you are 2-0 or sell them if you are 0-2. Puka and Pacheco though I would completely avoid (if you have them like I do, try to sell them in a couple of weeks for any price you can).

Rookie receivers erupt

Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers both exploded in Week 2 with equally ridiculous statlines:

MHJ: 4 rec / 8 targets, 130 yards, 2 TDs (38.1% target share)

Nabers: 10 rec / 18 targets, 127 yards, 1 TD (64.3% target share)

Both are historic performances that make statements after underwhelming Week 1s.

Beyond them though, Brock Bowers looks like a potential top-3 TE rest-of-season - trade for him if you still can. McConkey had another great week of usage with a 31.2% target/routes run and Brian Thomas Jr. continues to look like a steal in drafts.

A couple of other names to mention: I wouldn’t worry about Coleman yet - he’s still running all the routes so the targets should come. And finally Erick All - maybe more of a dynasty stash but someone to keep our eyes on.

Sophomore rebounds

A few second-year players that underwhelmed last year, now looking better:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 37.2% target share. I’m all in.
Jameson Williams: 11 targets, 129 air yards. I want to see it for one more week before trading for him but I’m afraid if he does it again, he’ll be untouchable. Do not sell unless you get a massive offer. Overall, I land more in the camp he’ll be a boom/bust WR2 - think peak Mike Williams or Will Fuller.
Quentin Johnson: It’s disgusting but QJ has 21% and 32% target shares these past two weeks, the two highest marks of his career. I can’t endorse starting him but he may demand a roster spot in case he’s the WR1 in this offense.

No start zones

Here are some offenses that look so awful, I’m not sure you can start anyone.

Bears: Even with some injuries to concentrate target share, this offense looks so stagnant that not even DJ Moore is someone I’d like to start. Austin Gayle pointed out on Twitter that Caleb Williams’ 3.0 net yards per attempt is the worst for any quarterback in Weeks 1 and 2 in the last 10 years. Granted this is a very cherrypicked stat and I do believe in Williams for the long term, just not right now.
Broncos: Bo Nix on the other hand… teams just simply aren’t scared of him. So much so that the Broncos have faced a stacked box on 57.9% of their plays this year. 2nd place is the 49ers with 39.6%. A huge gap that renders Javonte Williams a desperation start at best.
Panthers: Andy Dalton stepping in makes Diontae flex-viable but I’d avoid everyone if you can.
Colts: Proceed as usual with Richardson and Taylor, this is more of a Michael Pittman Jr. warning. Given where Pittman went in drafts, you likely have to start him but his catch rate has dropped from 69.9% last year to 46.7% this year. Richardson comes with his ups and downs; if Pierce, Downs and Mitchell have a bigger role than we thought, Pittman’s upside — especially in PPR leagues where he was drafted to be a target hog — becomes severely limited.
Packers: While Malik Willis is under center, only Jacobs is startable. Even with Love back, ideally Reed is a bye-week fill-in rather than an every-week starter for you. He produces when given the volume but this offense thrives because of how well they mix everyone in.
Rams: I still think the Rams might surprise people with their competitiveness despite these injuries but as far as fantasy, I would avoid everyone. Including Kyren. In 2022 games without Kupp, the Rams had the lowest neutral pass rate in the league. Kyren is about to face completely stacked boxes every week that will heavily stifle his efficiency. Leaguemates may buy that the team will have to rely on him - trade him to those people.

Ambiguous backfields

Browns: Absolutely baffling what the Browns did in Week 2. After Ford put in a very efficient Week 1, they decided to give D’Onta Foreman twice as many carries as him in Week 2. It’s clear they’re going to mix it up and this will be a nightmare committee. I hate to say it because I was so in on Ford but all of them should be avoided.
Steelers: Arthur Smith is loving his new RBs. Najee continues to get ~55% of the carries and Warren’s share increased from 5% to 28%. The best part is that it wasn’t at the expense of Najee but instead Patterson and Fields. Both Harris and Warren are viable RB2s.
Cowboys: Despite getting blown out, this offense will still be good. Unfortunately though, Deuce Vaughn is receiving work as the 2 to Dowdle/Zeke’s 1A/B. A two-man committee could’ve worked but three? Not for me. I would still roster Dowdle in hopes his talent will earn him a featured role eventually.
Chiefs: Another three-man committee incoming. With Pacheco going down, Steele will probably get slightly more of the work than Perine, but the latter’s touches will be more valuable, especially in PPR leagues. Eventually, Hunt will work his way in too. Perine is startable if needed for the next couple weeks, and then we will have to check back in.
Raiders: White continues to cede touches, with Mattison getting the goal-line work in Week 2. I’d trade White if you still can - even if he produces I wouldn’t start him until a clear usage gap exists.
Bengals and Titans: Chase Brown and Tyjae Spears (with his injury) have sadly become afterthoughts in their offenses. Pollard looks explosive and is likely a top 12-15 RB rest-of-season; Moss is a solid RB2.

Let me know if there’s anything you want me to cover next week. Good luck with your matchups and I’ll be back soon with some betting picks.