Week 3: 4-3 (+0.76u)
2026 Season Record: 13-10 (56.6%), +2.29u
Spread: 8-4 (66.7%), +3.56u
O/U: 5-6 (45.5%), -1.27u
Against the Spread
Cowboys +3 @ Texans
Unlike Vegas, I’m expecting a lower-scoring grind of a game here between two teams who defend the run very well. So then it becomes can Dallas get the pass game going against Houston’s excellent pass defense, or, can Houston’s anemic passing offense come to life against the Swiss cheese of Dallas’ secondary. Perhaps it’s not what my analogies would lead you to but I actually think bracketing (an injured) Nico Collins will work well and the Cowboys can contain Houston well enough on the road.
Packers -3.5 @ Buccaneers (key pick)
I find myself one of the few LaFleur believers left (and honestly think there’s a much stronger case Bowles should be fired). This sets up as a great get-right spot. Bowles will get funky with the coverage disguises which is my only concern but Packers defense against a QB in their first start ever with a spread this small feels solid to me.
Vikings -10.5 vs Dolphins
Going back through the archives I can confirm this is the first time a double digit favourite has ever been in this newsletter! I usually shy away from these even when I think they’re decent bets but Brian Flores’ blitz packages against Malik Willis is the equivalent of a nuclear bomb against a coughing baby. Take away Achane and Miami’s EPA/play fell off a cliff last week - my model has this over a 15pt spread with MIN at home. If you look hard enough some books have this at 9.5, and the public is actually slightly more on Miami too which is nice.
Chargers +7 @ Seahawks
Public is 67% on Seattle here and I get why, but people need to remember we are one good Chargers offensive week away from them being priced at competitive lines against anyone - expectations will change very quickly if they can figure it out. I can’t quit the prospect of McDaniel against a defense just allowed over 30 to Marcus Mariota.
Lions -3.5 @ Panthers
It’s very unlike me to pick all these road favourites but again this one is mispriced in my view. Panthers have put up points this year but the quality of this offense still feels shaky holding up as the season goes on. On the other hand, the Lions defensive efficiency feels like a negative outlier that will revert positively (bottom 3 in EPA/play allowed, 3rd down efficiency). Public is slightly more on Panthers too - obviously famous last words if they win but I’m betting on this being the peak of how people price the Panthers.
Saints -2.5 vs Falcons (key pick)
You can also find this -1.5 if you look hard enough (but happy to play it either way). The Falcons performance last week has to be one of the strangest results this year and after looking at it every which way I’ve come to the (maybe naïve) conclusion that the best way forward is to pretend it never happened, in which case this spread would be closer to 5.
Over/Under
Jaguars/Bengals Over 51.5
Like the Vikings bet, this is only the second time ever I’ve included an over on a line above 50. Everything here sets up as a shootout - I suspect the public has more confidence in the Jaguars offense showing up but even at a line this high, it smells to me like there is hesitancy with the Bengals putting up 23-25+, this is a team that usually only gets better through the year.
Cowboys/Texans Under 47.5 (key pick)
As I alluded to above, I frankly just see this game going different to Vegas and think I have the evidence on my side so will continue to follow that narrative here.
Cardinals/Giants Under 44.5
Not particularly sure of who will this game but not much of a reason to think either offence will be too explosive. Cardinals have played very slow this year (in fairness, they’ve done it protecting leads, but that could happen again here).
Good luck this week!
Touchdown Squad Betting Terms and Guidelines
Minimum of 6 picks/week.
Each bet’s suggestion is 1 unit (1%) of your season’s bankroll. Bankroll = total you are willing/can afford to risk each season.
Try to shop around the different sportsbooks to find the best line. Picks are endorsed with a 0.5-point margin from what is used in this post - if the line is a full point or more off what’s used, the recommendation should be avoided.
If a line moves dramatically, the post will be updated with additional commentary and
strikethroughsif necessary (with replacement picks).Please gamble responsibly.