Forecasting projects for me go beyond football and this year I’ve put together my first election forecast. This is very much a trial-and-error situation, so we’ll see how accurate this ends up!
Headlines
Labor retains majority government with 76 seats (-1) ; Coalition secures 54 seats (-4); crossbench expands to 20 seats (+4).1
Senate composition of 27 Coalition (-3), 26 ALP (+1), 12 Greens (-), 3 One Nation (+2), 5 Independents (-).
52-48 two-party preferred national vote for Labor. Primary vote breakdown: Coalition 34%, Labor 31%, Greens 12%, One Nation 7%, Others 16%.
The polls would indicate Labor will be in government, achieving somewhere between 74-80 seats (this is a narrow range - a full range of outcomes is more like 71-85 seats; the main point being Labor will be in minority government even in their worst case scenario). Pundits and betting odds price Labor to get 78 seats.
I have Labor slightly underperforming the most recent polls, mostly due to favouring the better quality data from ~5 days ago which was more around a 50/50 as to whether they’ll achieve a majority. I also think there’s been effective campaigning on the issue of crime from the Coalition in marginal seats this week (in what has otherwise been a very poor campaign).
The main prognosticating differentiator in this election will be in forecasting preference flows as primary vote for the two major parties continues to decline. My forecast assumes a fairly steep drop to around 64.5% of the primary vote going to the major parties.
The Greens’ nationwide primary declines by around 1% as they focus policies on their target seats and suffer a bleed to the Teals, while One Nation increases their primary result by roughly 1.5%.
With One Nation polling this well, their preference flows will be crucial for the Coalition - if it matches the QLD state election of nearly 90% to the Coalition, then 60+ seats remain possible for them. However, such preference discipline on a national scale seems unlikely (the 2022 Federal Election was 70%). My view is that One Nation and other minor right-wing party voters are more malleable voters, and that immigration as an issue alone cannot sustain the preference flows needed for the Coalition to carry some of their marginal seats, especially in rural/semi-rural areas (think seats like Cowper and Calare). I think this bodes well for Labor’s chances in toss-up seats such as Macnamara, Sturt, Menzies, and Brisbane, as well as in the upper house.
Toss-up seats
These are the 37 seats I see as in play for today, and which will decide the election (this assumes a base for Labor of 66 seats, 40 for the Coalition, Adam Bandt for the Greens, and then 6 for the crossbench.
Projected changing seats
ALP gain:
Sturt (from Coalition)
Menzies (from Coalition)
Brisbane (from Greens)
Coalition gain:
Aston (from ALP)
Lyons (from ALP)
Gilmore (from ALP)
Greens gain:
Richmond (from ALP)
Wills (from ALP)
Independents gain:
Calare (from Coalition)
Monash (from Coalition)
Bradfield (from Coalition)
Cowper (from Coalition)
Projected retained seats (seats they need to defend)
ALP:
Lingiari, Chisholm, Bullwinkel, Paterson, Macnamara, McEwen, Bennelong
Coalition:
Deakin, Leichhardt, Forrest, Bass, Banks, Longman, McPherson, Canning, Moore, Casey, Wannon
Greens:
Ryan, Griffith
Independents:
Goldstein, Mackellar, Fowler, Curtin
Safe seat projections
Here are my full seat projections below for anyone curious enough to know how I got to my numbers. Each category is listed from most to least likely:
Safe ALP retain (56)
Brand, Grayndler, Fenner, Kingston, Chifley, Burt, Hasluck, Barton, Scullin, Makin, Hotham, Swan, Cowan, Kingsford Smith, Gellibrand, Rankin, Maribyrnong, Sydney, Oxley, Pearce, Blaxland, Macarthur, Ballarat, Canberra, Lalor, Spence, Corio, Gorton, Lilley, Perth, Fraser, Cunningham, Newcastle, Isaacs, Eden-Monaro, Calwell, Bendigo, Jagajaga, Greenway, Watson, Hawke, Whitlam, McMahon, Dobell, Franklin, Holt, Moreton, Shortland, Reid, Solomon, Adelaide, Parramatta, Corangamite, Fremantle, Macquarie, Hindmarsh
Likely ALP retain (10)
Bruce, Dunkley, Tangney, Hunter, Bean, Blair, Robertson, Boothby, Cooper, Werriwa
Safe Coalition retain (30)
Cook, Mitchell, Maranoa, Herbert, La Trobe, Dawson, Fadden, Barker, Farrer, Moncrieff, Hume, Berowra, Hinkler, Wide Bay, Grey, Capricornia, Bowman, Wright, Fairfax, Lindsay, Fisher, Groom, Gippsland, Mallee, Nicholls, Parkes, New England, Riverina, Page, Durack
Likely Coalition retain (10)
Petrie, Hughes, Flynn, Bonner, Forde, Flinders, O'Connor, Lyne, Dickson, Braddon
Likely Crossbench retain (7)
Warringah (IND), Clark (IND), Melbourne (GRN), Kennedy (KAP), Indi (IND), Mayo (CA), Wentworth (IND).
Seats don’t cancel out as one electorate was removed under the 2024 redistribution.